Lee Thompson | Strategic Risk

Security & Crisis Advisor | Middle East Energy Infrastructure Security Conflict & Strategic Risk Analysis Briefing investors, energy firms & policymakers Daily SITREP & strategic forecasts ↓

@Rafin020120 @EGYOSINT Doesn’t matter. We will take them out and I don’t think you know how many more they have.

@JSSCEO @EGYOSINT They have thousands of more boats like this dude🙄🙄

Trump claims he wiped out the entire Iranian Navy. Meanwhile, the IRGC Navy was seen in force this morning, with dozens of speedboats operating in the Strait of Hormuz and off Iran’s coast after seizing two container ships and firing on a third.

Daily SITREP | 24 Apr 2026 | 09:50 Amman (JOR) Regional Conflict & Economic Outlook — Ceasefire Extension, Active Negotiations, Maritime Tension ⸻ Regional Conflict Environment Negotiations & Ceasefire — Lebanon / Gaza Negotiations remain active with the Lebanon ceasefire holding under extension, maintaining reduced cross-border activity. Hezbollah posture remains defensive and controlled, indicating continued adherence to the current framework. Gaza remains less stable. While talks continue, intermittent strikes and enforcement gaps persist, underscoring the fragility of the arrangement. Assessment: Medium risk — tactical de-escalation sustained; strategic resolution absent. ⸻ Iran–U.S. / Gulf Theater — Post-Engagement Tension Following prior maritime engagement, force posture across the Gulf remains elevated. No confirmed large-scale retaliation, but Iranian signaling and proxy readiness remain active. Indicators: Sustained naval density Elevated ISR coverage Continued air/missile defense readiness Assessment: High risk — negotiations have not translated into Gulf de-escalation. ⸻ Proxy & Diplomatic Threat Layer Threat levels against U.S. and allied diplomatic facilities remain elevated but restrained. Proxy groups retain capability to rapidly escalate, particularly in Iraq and Syria, if negotiations collapse or maritime incidents occur. Assessment: Medium–High risk — dormant but highly responsive threat environment. ⸻ Maritime & Energy Security Strait of Hormuz — Center of Gravity Transit remains cautious. Shipping continues under constrained conditions with insurance limitations and convoy patterns. Confidence has not returned despite diplomatic progress in the Levant. Red Sea / Bab al-Mandeb Harassment threat persists at reduced tempo; still contributing to global supply chain pressure. Assessment: High risk — maritime domain remains decisive to escalation and economic stability. ⸻ Economic Forecast Energy Markets Markets show temporary stabilization signals tied to ceasefire extension, but underlying risk premium remains elevated due to unresolved maritime tension. Regional Economic Exposure Persistent freight and insurance costs Energy-driven inflation pressure Continued fiscal strain across import-dependent economies ⸻ Bottom Line The region is operating under dual-track dynamics: Diplomatic de-escalation on land (Lebanon ceasefire extended, negotiations active) Sustained tension at sea (Hormuz unresolved, maritime risk elevated) The most likely escalation trigger remains a maritime incident or proxy activation that disrupts ongoing negotiations. #DailySITREP #MENA #Ceasefire #Lebanon #Gaza #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #MaritimeSecurity #Geopolitics #StrategicRisk

@salt_icxc Preach

I don't know who needs to hear this, but the pre-tribulation rapture is a false doctrine. "It was granted to him [Antichrist] to make war with the saints and to overcome them. And authority was given him over every tribe, tongue, and nation." (Rev 13:7)

@Ashleyhays2089 Ephesians 1:13, which says: "Having also believed, you were sealed in Him with the Holy Spirit of promise" (NASB)

The church is protected from the tribulation by being removed. The world will relentlessly push and argue that there is no rapture because when it happens, Satan will cover it up with the alien narrative. And if no one believes there is a rapture, more are deceived by the cover up. Our bridegroom does not send His precious bride to endure His wrath and to die at the hands of satan before our wedding. The 7 year tribulation is for Israel and for a rebellious unrepentant world.

@TNTJohn1717 The Bible says believers are sealed with the Holy Spirit. Ephesians 1:13, which says: "Having also believed, you were sealed in Him with the Holy Spirit of promise" (NASB)

🚨‼️Ashley is exactly right, and this is what drives the anti-rapture crowd crazy: they cannot read Revelation without cramming the Church into passages that are plainly dealing with Israel, Tribulation saints, and the wrath to come. The Body of Christ is not appointed to wrath, and the Bride is not left on earth for Antichrist slaughter before the wedding. That is not blessed hope. That is doctrinal confusion. And let’s be honest: a lot of the loudest voices against the pre-tribulation rapture are not correcting the Bible. They are correcting a system they invented by refusing to rightly divide it. They see the word “saints” and automatically scream “Church,” even when the context is screaming otherwise. Ashley is doing what more people need to do: open the Book, read it carefully, and stop blending Israel, the Church, and the Tribulation into one prophetic mess.

@reachjulieroys FYI

Franklin Graham & Jonathan Falwell are among evangelical leaders set to speak at Trump-backed National Mall event to “rededicate” America to God. Critics say the mostly Christian lineup fuels concerns about Christian nationalism & exclusion of other faiths. roysreport.com/graham-falwell…

@reachjulieroys Is this the same one Feucht is playing at?

Daily SITREP | 23 Apr 2026 | 10:30 Amman (JOR) Regional Conflict & Economic Outlook — Negotiations Active, Ceasefire Extended, Hormuz Risk ⸻ Regional Conflict Environment Negotiations & Ceasefire Status — Lebanon / Gaza Diplomatic channels have re-engaged with active negotiations underway, resulting in a temporary extension of the Lebanon ceasefire and reduced cross-border activity. Hezbollah posture remains defensive, indicating compliance with the current framework. Gaza remains more volatile. While negotiations are ongoing, enforcement gaps persist and intermittent strikes continue, highlighting the asymmetry between diplomatic progress and operational reality. Assessment: Medium risk — de-escalation holding tactically; negotiations fragile and reversible. ⸻ Hormuz — Escalation Watch (Post-Engagement Phase) Following the U.S. engagement with an Iranian-linked tanker, the maritime environment remains highly tense. No confirmed large-scale retaliation, but Iranian signaling and proxy readiness remain elevated. Key indicators: Sustained naval density Heightened ISR activity Reduced margin for miscalculation Assessment: High risk — negotiations have not translated into maritime de-escalation. ⸻ Proxy & Diplomatic Threat Layer Threat posture against U.S. and allied diplomatic facilities remains elevated but currently restrained. Militia networks retain rapid activation capability, particularly in Iraq and Syria. Assessment: Medium–High risk — latent threat aligned to escalation triggers. ⸻ Maritime & Energy Security Strait of Hormuz — Center of Gravity Shipping remains cautious with convoy behavior and insurance constraints continuing to limit normal flow. Confidence has not returned despite diplomatic movement elsewhere. Red Sea / Bab al-Mandeb Secondary threat environment persists; harassment capability remains intact though at reduced tempo. Assessment: High risk — maritime domain remains the decisive escalation and economic vector. ⸻ Economic Forecast Energy Markets Markets are responding cautiously to negotiation signals. Short-term stabilization possible, but risk premium remains elevated due to unresolved Hormuz dynamics. Regional Economic Exposure Persistent freight and insurance costs Energy-driven inflation pressures Continued fiscal strain on import-dependent economies ⸻ Bottom Line The environment has shifted to negotiation-driven de-escalation in the Levant, with a temporary ceasefire extension in Lebanon, but Hormuz remains unresolved and dominant. The conflict is now defined by parallel tracks: diplomacy on land, tension at sea. The most likely escalation trigger remains a maritime incident or proxy activation disrupting the fragile negotiation environment. #DailySITREP #MENA #Ceasefire #Lebanon #Gaza #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #MaritimeSecurity #Geopolitics #StrategicRisk

@ArmchairAdml Is cowboy

The draft dodger thinks he could’ve won the war 🙄

@howertonjosh @JohnBevere Pastor Josh, John said there is a little “t” and capital “T” in the Bible referring to the tribulation. Where do you stand on this? As I read the scriptures relating to the end of the age it is simply tribulation and great tribulation as referenced by our Lord.

"Jesus said you're not going to get it until the Holy Spirit comes... What's the mystery? We're not all going to die." – @JohnBevere This was a fascinating conversation about the end times 👇

Daily SITREP | 21 Apr 2026 | 10:05 Amman (JOR) Regional Conflict & Economic Outlook — Post-Engagement Tension, Ceasefire Strain, Energy Volatility ⸻ Regional Conflict Environment Hormuz — Post U.S.–Iran Engagement Following the U.S. engagement with an Iranian-linked tanker, the maritime environment remains highly tense. No immediate large-scale retaliation has been observed, but Iranian signaling has intensified through naval posture and proxy messaging. The operating picture now reflects: Elevated naval density Tightened rules of engagement Reduced margin for miscalculation Assessment: High risk — single incident could trigger rapid escalation cycle. ⸻ Levant — Lebanon / Gaza Ceasefire The Lebanon ceasefire continues to hold but remains conditional. Hezbollah posture remains defensive but intact. Gaza remains unstable, with intermittent strikes and unresolved enforcement mechanisms. Assessment: Medium risk — de-escalation holding tactically, not strategically. ⸻ Proxy & Diplomatic Threat Layer Threat conditions against U.S. and allied diplomatic facilities remain elevated across Iraq and Gulf states. Proxy networks remain capable, though currently restrained in line with broader de-escalation signaling. Assessment: Medium–High risk — latent threat with rapid activation potential. ⸻ Maritime & Energy Security Strait of Hormuz — Active Conflict Zone Shipping behavior remains cautious. Convoy movement patterns, insurance limitations, and naval presence continue to constrain normal operations. The strait is now operating under conflict conditions, not peacetime transit. Red Sea / Bab al-Mandeb Secondary threat environment persists with continued harassment capability, though overshadowed by Hormuz developments. Assessment: High risk — maritime chokepoints remain decisive to escalation and economic stability. ⸻ Economic Forecast Energy Markets Markets are adjusting to the reality of direct engagement. Oil prices remain volatile with a rising geopolitical risk premium tied to transport insecurity rather than production loss. Regional Economic Exposure Sustained freight and insurance inflation Energy-driven CPI pressure Increased fiscal strain across import-dependent economies ⸻ Bottom Line The region remains in a post-threshold environment following direct U.S.–Iran maritime engagement. Ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza are holding, but the center of gravity remains Hormuz, where any follow-on incident could trigger immediate military escalation and global market shock. #DailySITREP #MENA #Hormuz #MaritimeSecurity #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics #StrategicRisk #Lebanon #Gaza #RiskAdvisory

@Torncurtainorg @LauraLynnTT I agreed. I don’t do conferences but I believe Cahn’s fruits speaks for it self. He is an excellent teacher and accurate prophet from what I have seen over the years.

Lee let me be very clear. I don't go to conferences like this anymore. I don't recommend others do either. When i was a newer believer i did and they were some what helpful. I do have a problem with most of the guys on this flyer. I would question the integrity of the event because they are platforming Jeremiah at a time when many accusations for prophetic fraud are circling

Jeremiah Johnson is one of the headliners at the International Prophetic Summit in April, along with Rick Renner, Joseph Z, Perry Stone, and Jonathan Cahn. I know some people are going to think I’m starting trouble by saying this, but why is Jeremiah Johnson still speaking at this event? He has been caught plagiarizing, and there are several unreconciled allegations of prophetic fraud against him. I guess the show must go on at all costs. I believe God is going to bring an end to the NAR in this generation because of the sin, corruption, and immorality that the leadership in this movement refuses to address. This is disgusting on so many levels. ICHABOD. I wouldn’t follow any of these ministries, and I don’t recommend you do either. But if you do follow them, I would encourage you to ask them why they are platforming Jeremiah. Do you need a word from the Lord for your life? Stay home, read your Bible, fast, and spend a few hours in your prayer closet. God will speak to you about your life.

@LauraLoomer @RealCandaceO Torpedo

@NiohBerg He’s wiser than you give him credit. Let him cook!

The sooner President Trump understands he can't negotiate his way out of this war, the better.

@LauraLynnTT @Torncurtainorg What issue do see with Johnathan Cahn?

@Torncurtainorg Unbelievable that they would continue with Jeremiah Johnson … but then … look at the rest of them 🤔.

@Torncurtainorg 💯

Every single Christian in America should be voting. No excuses

Come on @RealCandaceO is it getting to “true” for you now? Those demons you partnered with only came to steal, kill, and destroy you. But Jesus can save you. Repent.

@Torncurtainorg Would you also warn against sensationalism? As it is also not the true gospel of the finished work of the cross.

American Christianity is the lowest form of Christianity. The NAR and prosperity gospel are the lowest forms of American Christianity. Many of these people are not saved because they have never heard the true Gospel — the message of sin, brokenness, repentance, and being raised to new life in Christ. The Charismatic church as a whole is not offering anything real or authentic. We proclaim a shallow word and produce spiritual infants and orphans. If you want a real and authentic faith, it will cost you something. Only the fire of God can truly shape a person into a saint. That fire comes through testing, refinement, reformation, exposure, trials, tribulations, grief, pain, and loss. We often reject these things like the plague when they enter our lives. Yet in Revelation, we see the Lord calling us to buy gold refined by fire. Revelation 3:18-19 (ESV) 18 I counsel you to buy from me gold refined by fire, so that you may be rich, and white garments so that you may clothe yourself and the shame of your nakedness may not be seen, and salve to anoint your eyes, so that you may see. 19 Those whom I love, I reprove and discipline, so be zealous and repent.