Sherwin-Trilliams

@scuttleblurb @taobanker Hysterical this went right over the head 😂

@taobanker it’s not just wrappers, it’s the new blogging stack: audience, prompts, and taste

substack is just a series of chatgpt wrappers at this point

@NFL @NFLPlus The Philadelphia eagles have selected Stevie Wonder

@ContrarianCurse Every time I play I’m convinced this will be the day I break 100. Unfortunately I haven’t been able to manifest that destiny just yet. Sunday will be different though. Will report back with scorecard. #98

@JSchmanathan You've lost the plot but 18m isn't too bad

I am a solid 4-5 rounds of golf/year kind of guy. I really don't love it. I'll shoot 87-95 depending on the day with always a chance of a blow up. I find it frustrating generally Never ceases to amaze me how obsessed someone can be for years while shooting like 130

@realroseceline It’s a leading indicator more so for the category than it is Netflix specific. Again, what I’m talking about is years away from manifesting itself in the numbers, and that’s a dumb thing to short. I do think their strong push into children’s games is brilliant

Declining engagement only matters if it translates into weaker monetization or pricing power, and so far it hasn’t. $Nflx is still growing revenue, expanding margins, and increasing FCF Re terminal value, I don’t think this becomes cable. The multiple compresses only if the economics deteriorate, not just because growth slows. Then again, what the hell do I know I’m named after a flower 🌹

$NFLX is very under monetized, over time I predict they’ll be the first ever trillion dollar so called media / entertainment company. 🌹

@realroseceline I really do wonder about terminal value. You can certainly keep growing and compounding earnings 20% likely for next five years. But eventually this gets a cable multiple no?

@realroseceline I really appreciate your posts on $NFLX. I’m curious though…how does the declining engagement not bother you? Secular trends favor YouTube and short form video. YouTube even makes more sense for sports rights. Not saying Netflix is going to see near term disruption but

@NadimHossain Wait you mean to tell me that one of the greatest CEOs of all time has a better perspective than a podcast host?

The Jensen-Dwarkesh chasm is easily explainable by generational differences. J is a boomer. His views are rooted in practicality and experience. Nuanced spectrums vs extreme poles. Much more of a conservative, market-driven outlook. D is naive and idealistic and sincerely believes in the AGI fear-mongers nonsense and is parroting ideology from Dario. I appreciate his interview but find J much more relatable.

@Steve_Yegge You look like the biggest bitch right now Jesus

I was chatting with my buddy at Google, who's been a tech director there for about 20 years, about their AI adoption. Craziest convo I've had all year. The TL;DR is that Google engineering appears to have the same AI adoption footprint as John Deere, the tractor company. Most of the industry has the same internal adoption curve: 20% agentic power users, 20% outright refusers, 60% still using Cursor or equivalent chat tool. It turns out Google has this curve too. But why is Google so... average? How is it that a handful of companies are taking off like a spaceship, and the rest, including Google, are mired in inaction? My buddy's observation was key here: There has been an industry-wide hiring freeze for 18+ months, during which time nobody has been moving jobs. So there are no clued-in people coming in from the outside to tell Google how far behind they are, how utterly mediocre they have become as an eng org. He says the problem is that they can't use Claude Code because it's the enemy, and Gemini has never been good enough to capture people's workflows like Claude has, so basically agentic coding just never really took off inside Google. They're all just plodding along, completely oblivious to what's happening out there right now. Not only is Google not able to do anything about it, they don't seem to be aware of the problem at all. I'm having major flashbacks to fifty years ago as a kid at the La Brea Tar Pits, asking, "why can't they just climb out?" My Google friend and I had this conversation over a month ago. I didn't share it because I wanted to look around a bit, and see if it's really as bad as all that. I've been talking to people from dozens of companies since then. And yeah. It's as bad as all that. Google is about average. Some companies at the bottom have near-zero AI adoption and can't even get budget for AI. They may have moats and high walls, but the horde is coming for them all the same. And then there are a few companies I've met recently who are *amazingly* leaned in to AI adoption. One category-leader company just cancelled IntelliJ for a thousand engineers. That's an incredibly bold move, one of many they're making towards agentic adoption. In my opinion, that company is setting themselves up for a _huge_ W. As for the rest, well, it's the Great Siloing. Everyone's flying blind. With nobody moving companies, no company knows where they stand on the AI adoption curve. Nobody knows how they're doing compared to everyone else. Half of them just check a box: "We enabled {Copilot/Cursor} for everyone!" Cue smug celebrations. They think this is like getting SOC2 compliance, just a thing they turn on and now it's "solved." And they don't realize that they've done effectively nothing at all. All because of a hiring freeze.

@HedgeDirty Gotta wonder if important physical documentation becomes again. Think about your brokerage account…don’t you want some sort of physical proof of what you own? Feels like the trust in digital security could be toast

If the mythos reality is even 1/10 what's claimed, *a lot* of things are going to have to get air-gapped from the internet

@OvershownSZN How is this not talked about more? Good god.

When a rookie Ezekiel Elliott went straight at the NFL’s hardest hitter in his preseason debut.

@TheLAPurchaser Likewise. There’s no doubt imo either.

@JSchmanathan I’m pilled but this is where the puck is going

Some thoughts after spending a week building with agents: 1) The token demands increase by many orders of magnitude (100x? 1000x? more?) as we shift from chatbots to agents. Yes we all know this. It's crazy seeing it in practice. 2) The API costs add up fast. I haven't done much and my personal compute costs are run rating to $1000/mth and i can see it being multiples of that as I ramp functionality. 3) You need to run a dual or multi-model stack -- leading edge LLMs for agent orchestration & high-judgment tasks. Local / open source / lagging edge models for everything else. 4) Even with multi-model, the costs still pile up. I see more clearly how compute/infra costs will directly compete with labor. Yes there are already signs of this. The drum will be louder as F500 incorporates agents over N12-14Mths. 5) Feels like we are still very much under-appreciating how robust the demand function will be for many years as the most resource intensive products have yet to come to market...

@TheLAPurchaser If I could, I could 100% argue I could get the tech to a place where you could replace two or three junior analysts. That’s not hyperbole either and with the rate it’s improving you really have to have your head in the sand to dismiss this stuff

@TheLAPurchaser I’m doing something similar to you but on a smaller scale. The takeaway is the same regardless: market likely is underestimating the scale of this tech still. It is profound what I’ve been able to do with Cowork. I can’t dedicate my attention to this like a full time job but…

@SixSigmaCapital @the_fat_pitch What are you waiting for? 15x earnings? 12x?

@the_fat_pitch This is very good consideration and my view also Have to be patient

What’s people’s thoughts on $META here? Opportunity or trap? Cheap or expensive

@compoundpapi @marc_slans Owning $AMT the last few years has been nothing but pain.

Let’s go, gents, gimme your top 3 slam dunks from here. I gotta put food on the table… $META $MA $MCO

@marc_slans The model works because revenue is growing +20%. If that slows for any reason, the operating deleverage will be massive. Earnings estimates slashed for next handful of years.

Is there a legitimate bear scenario where $META stock doesn’t at least do decently from here over the long run?

@AdamSchefter @ProFootballTalk This is amazing

@ProFootballTalk Just to prove you’re wrong, again.

A curious question emerges about WR Carnell Tate's official Scouting Combine 40-yard dash time of 4.52 seconds. nbcsports.com/nfl/profootbal…

@TechFundies Love your posts bro - greatly appreciated

$WDAY reported a soft quarter and guide. Story is moving sideways as business is maturing (growth getting more expensive) and no AI impact seen really. Numbers moving a touch lower as company invests more aggressively to potentially re-accelerate revenue down the road. Risk / reward is great but catalyst path is non-existent. Company is growing ldd and under-earning at mid-teens GAAP OM. GAAP operating profit growing >30% yy w/ sharecount shrinking. Stock trades at 8.5x this year’s FCF, 10x earnings power (assuming business can generate 35% GAAP OM), and 20x this year’s GAAP EPS for EPS growth >30% yy. Kind of left for dead. Downside hard to frame given how cheap it is for a growing profitable business w/ net cash - so let’s just say the same 20% downside all stocks have. Upside of 123% on 16x CY2027 FCF / 30x GAAP EPS. CEO has voting control but would be very funny if ORCL tried to buy them (ORCL previously bought CEO’s prior company via hostile takeover decades ago). The Quarter Subscription rev of 2.4b grew 14.2% yy normalized (removing Paradox and one-time rev benefit) which was consistent w/ 14% in Q1-Q3. Net delta of ~77m down from 89m normalized last Q4 simply demonstrating how HCM is mature, FINS is harder to sell, and down-market just involves smaller deals. cRPO is unreliable metric but grew 14.5% yy normalized so consistent. They highlighted that some deals in government (all branches) and health care slipped w/ a few closing in Q1. PF OM of 30.6% was up meaningfully from 26.5% last Q4. SBC of 15.2% down nicely from 17.6% last Q4. GAAP OM of 15.4% up nicely from 8.8% last Q4. They bought back $1.5b worth of stock which took sharecount down -2% qq. Nice. The old founding CEO is the new CEO and they reduced guidance for this year from 13% to 12% (12% down to 11% organically). Assuming a 100 bps beat, they are guiding to 12% organic growth down from ~13ish% growth this past year. Gross and net retention rates remain similar. The plan is to invest more aggressively into AI innovation to reaccelerate revenue growth at some point. So the new margin guidance implies PF OM stays at 30% this year though I would guess they beat this. Highlights -Business is steady as she goes. >11,500 total customers w/ >75m seats. Doing well down-market with bundles and through partners. -All the AI companies are customers -> Open.AI, Google, Anthropic. -AI story here still developing. AI generated 100m in new ACV in Q4 up >100% yy w/ total AI including acquisitions doing ~400m / year (or 4% of rev). A glass half empty view here would also include that the business would be growing at or below 10% if there was no AI to sell. -Doesn’t think transition to AI threatens business. Client/server transition to SaaS involved rearchitecting everything while AI is just a bolt-on to cloud. -Excited to invest more to develop more AI agents which will be released in 2H. Monetization would come later as credits are sold / consumed. -Also highlighted that any external AI that taps the WDAY info will use credits and be monetized. So even if some workflows occur elsewhere or over-the-top, WDAY will benefit.

@George_Kurtz Kinda love this post ngl

Can AI replace security platforms? I asked Claude to build a CrowdStrike replacement. Claude: "I have to be straightforward: building a replacement for CrowdStrike isn't something I can do here. CrowdStrike is a massive platform built by thousands of engineers over a decade-plus. Its core capabilities include real-time kernel-level endpoint monitoring across millions of devices, a proprietary threat intelligence graph built from trillions of security events...That's not something you can replicate with a script — it's an infrastructure product." If you want to create AI, you need GPUs. If you want to deploy AI, you need security. That's not a hallucination – it's a fact. Watch the demo → youtube.com/watch?v=ilVWaT…