Chuck

Remember how I have been shouting from the rooftops about how good Luis Lara is? This is one of the main reasons he’s such a difference maker. His speed and defense are insanely valuable.

Anyone see the ZIPS update yesterday and that it projects Lara as a 3 WAR player next year? As I was saying….

As I was saying in my last tweet

I guess the Orioles thought Vance Honeycutt was fixable and worthy of a first rounder so anything is possible

can someone explain why Justin LeBron is being mocked to go in the 1st round?

@BigBobsCards The goat!

For transparency I audited myself this morning by looking back at my offseason team buy sheets (they’re still up on the site) and seeing who is up/down the most. Throwing out players with base autographs of $5 or lower there are 22 players I gave either a 4/5 or 5/5 buy rating to that are up over 100%. There are also 6 who are down 40% or more. Here are my best and worst buys. Best (sorted by % up) Cooper Ingle $9 -> $34 (+277.8%) Cooper Flemming $7 -> $25 (+257.1%) Taitn Gray $12 -> $41 (+241.7%) Nathan Flewelling $12 -> $39 (+225%) Devin Fitz-Gerald $14 -> $44 (+214.3%) Robert Arias $7 -> $20 (+185.7%) Theo Gillen $27 -> $76 (+181.5%) Cole Carrigg $10 -> $28 (+180%) Johnny Slawinski $8 -> $22 (+175%) Jace Avina $6 -> $15 (+150%) Hendry Mendez $13 -> 31 (+138.5%) Franklin Arias $65 -> $153 (+135.4%) Chase Harlan $17 -> $40 (+135.3%) Jefferson Rojas $18 -> $42 (+133.3%) Braylon Payne $21 -> $47 (+123.8%) Juneiker Caceres $17 -> $38 (+123.5%) Ethan Pecko $6 -> $13 (+116.7%) Ralphy Velazquez $42 -> $87 (+107.1%) Jhonny Level $29 -> $59 (+103.4%) AJ Russell $9 -> $18 (+100%) Riley Quick $7 -> $14 (+100%) Josh Owens $13 -> $26 (+100%) Worst (sorted by % down) Jared Thomas $16 -> $8 (-50%) Ryan Waldschmidt $47 -> $25 (-46.8%) Gavin Fien $29 -> $16 (-44.8%) Eduardo Quintero $83 -> $46 (-44.6%) Sean Gamble $26 -> $15 (-42.3%) Ethan Conrad $49 -> $29 (-40.8%)

It seems like you’d be absolutely shocked then by how many players have been offered pre-arb extensions and have turned them down because they’re typically terrible deals for the players that severely limits their upside and makes it so they can’t hit the open market until after their prime. Even just comparing this to the Cooper Pratt deal, this is a steal.

@JackDelavano @jagephillips @Upper_Beck And not even close, the logic you can’t comphrend is that any extension for a player who has never played a single inning in the big leagues is always a decent risk, something you have multiple times said doesn’t exist. Theres a reason only ~10 guys have gotten it, it’s risky

There remains a huge population of baseball fans that do not understand the economics of pre-arb extensions whatsoever

I don’t think you’re grasping how little $4.4m aav is for a player who is 21 and ready for the big leagues, when a new CBA is coming with minimum salary increases and possibly changes to Arb that will value players like him way more than the past where strictly antiquated metrics have been valued. They get the option on his age 28-30 seasons without having to guarantee very much at all! Making this textbook low risk, high reward. If he’s a dud, they’re not on the hook for much. Look at how the market values defense only CFers on the market. Tyrone Taylor just got 3.8 in his arb 3 year under the current CBA and he’s 32. (3.8 adjusted for inflation in 5 years is ~4.3). Harrison Bader got 10.25. Now imagine for a second Lara can hit a bit. By your logic, teams should never sign any player to a contract because they could stink down the line. This deal is an absolute steal.

@JackDelavano @jagephillips @Upper_Beck Spot for, is Sal Frelick who is a Gold Glove OFer who had a very similar profile to Lara until this season. A guy who MIL would move on from as he enters Arbiration. But continue to pretend MIL has no risk in this move.

You might want to brush up on probability and risk:reward tradeoffs. Every decision in life carries some sort of risk. The key is weighing it against the potential reward and pricing it in. High-level teams and businesses are professionals at this. Individuals without much experience are usually bad at this. Based on how the Brewers have operated over the last several seasons with the budget they have, it’s safe to assume they have an edge.

@JackDelavano @jagephillips @Upper_Beck You claiming it was a horrendous deal and MIL doesn’t have any financial repercussions if he is terrible is completely wrong. Like I said originally, your stance is using this logic that he’s guaranteed to be good which is not proven in anyway other than MIL is betting on it.

They’re actually not really even betting on him being good based off the numbers they guaranteed. They’re betting on him being at least mediocre, which for his profile is a pretty safe bet. Could anything happen? Sure. But that’s where the statisticians come in and assess risk and probability. The Brewers surely have performed a robust risk assessment and came out of that saying the risk is relatively low with this type of guarantee while the long term savings might be massive, making it a bet they’re willing to take all day. I think you’re also discounting the fact that minimum salaries are going to go up as early as next year making this deal look even better for Milwaukee.

@jagephillips @JackDelavano @Upper_Beck Once again, they’re clearly betting on him being good. But there is still risk involved for MIL on this deal, since his bat has been good for only 55 games throughout his minor league career.

@dahldoescards I wish he played in a better market and that I bought more of his autos. He can play!

Welcome to the show Cole Carrigg

How old were Perkins and Ortiz when they debuted and how old is Lara now? That’s the answer to all this. They just got Lara for all his prime years at essentially the base case for his expected output. Perkins and Ortiz they have locked up for their prime years without an extension due to their ages. If Lara is even remotely good, they just bought out 3 years of FA by paying him likely less than he would have gotten going the traditional route through Arb. Minimum salaries are going to go up in the next CBA. His AAV on this deal is nothing. They didn’t have to guarantee much at all to receive complete control of weather they want his first 3 years of FA to be with the Brewers at a very cheap rate.

@JackDelavano @jagephillips @Upper_Beck Which is exactly why MIL is still taking a risk with Lara, even though you don’t want to think they are. They are gambling that his 57 game sample of offensive production is sustainable, if it’s not they’re wasting money on a guy who’s no different than those guys.

@jagephillips @vqs9bzmq4r @Upper_Beck JJ, you know what’s up

@vqs9bzmq4r @JackDelavano @Upper_Beck he’s, bare minimum, a gold glove caliber CFer. That alone would cover the entirety of the value of this extension. This is an insanely good deal for the Brewers, even if he ends up a 4th OF/Defensive replacement. Guy will roll out of bed to a 2+ WAR season

Well Joey Ortiz is 28 in one month and Blake Perkins is almost 30, both only entering year 1 of arb, so absolutely not lol. I’m not sure how you can even throw them out there as a comparison for this situation with Lara. They both debuted in their mid 20s, not at 21. They are on complete different trajectories. The brewers have those guys under team control for all their prime years and by the time they’re eligible for FA, they will be in their 30s and not have a real market for a large deal.

@jagephillips @JackDelavano @Upper_Beck So you’re saying that the Brewers should sign Joey Ortiz and Blake Perkins to $30M extensions? Because they’ve been considered Gold glove caliber players too.

Stop using MLB Pipeline and baseball America as your bible. There’s a reason the low budget teams succeeding are prioritizing speed and defense. This is an elite OFer with wheels. And he also has a great hit tool. If the power surge is even remotely real, that’s just icing on top.

@JackDelavano @Upper_Beck Do you not understand that he’s before the past 57 games in AAA he’s best performance was a .733 OPS in single A? There’s no guarantee he will even be a MLB talent yet. You’re acting like he’s some elite prospect, he’s not.

@vqs9bzmq4r @Upper_Beck It’s like a +EV bet. Teams will take that gamble all day, every day. His AAV is peanuts. Minimum salaries will likely go up in the next CBA and inflation has been crazy high. This is such a low risk bet with immense upside.

@JackDelavano @Upper_Beck Or he could be absolutely terrible when he makes it to the bigs, like plenty of prospects are and MIL could be wasting millions. Why are you acting like MIL isn’t taking a risk on this too?

@lookbryand @Upper_Beck The brewers front office made a great move. They’ve been playing chess. Props to them for getting this deal done with almost no downside but insanely high upside.

@JackDelavano @Upper_Beck Kid may come from no$. Hasn’t been an elite prospect for that long. Freddy did same thing for possibly similar reasons. I’ll always trust brew front office to make smart moves

Club option on those years. If he stinks and isn’t an MLB player, they can cut ties with no financial repercussions. If he’s average or elite, they just got a true CFer in his prime years for peanuts. He likely won’t get much after this deal is over as he has a speed & hit over power profile. The brewers just got him through all his prime years for pennies on the dollar and Lara just sold himself insanely short. MLB teams must be LOVING this deal and about to send offers to other international prospects they can sniff the desperation from.

@JackDelavano The incentives make it a little better for the player (maxes at $79M), but MLB does have a general problem where low leverage and guaranteed generational wealth for intl players leads to likely below-market contracts

@Upper_Beck Sorry! Horrible for the player. Amazing amazing amazing for the brewers

@JackDelavano You can understand your first reply as ambiguous whether you meant bad for the team or bad for the player

@Upper_Beck Im not. Throw away the outdated rankings out there. This is an elite CFer who can hit. This is a bet against himself as a player. There is no argument where this is a good deal. He is betting that he will be a below average MLB player

@JackDelavano I can’t tell if you’re doing a bit