Jacob Orchard

🚨 I’m on the #EconJobMarket! My JMP, “Mind the Gap: Disagreement and Credible Monetary Policy”, asks a simple question: what happens to monetary policy transmission when the Fed and financial markets disagree on the future path of rates? A JMP thread 🧵 (1/10)

Proud @UCSDEcon student Paula Donaldson @paudonaldson discovered something huge: We have been measuring government spending effects wrong for years. When using state comparisons to estimate fiscal policy, we assumed interest rates affect all states equally. But they don't🧵

On the death of a prophet, a church shooting in Michigan, and what I learned from President Russell M. Nelson: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

Living to 101 is a privilege I never anticipated. I was pleased to be able to share a few thoughts in a global publication about what I have learned and observed during this time. After more than a century of life and decades of studying both the human body and the human soul, I have found this to be true: we are happiest when we remember our divine worth and extend that recognition to others—beginning with our own families. More than two millennia ago, Jesus Christ preached these same laws of happiness: to love God and to love our neighbor. After 101 years, I can say that these are not abstract theological ideas—they are practical wisdom. If you would like, you may read in the link below some of the thoughts I penned. time.com/7315003/russel…

Paper provides a framework to understand how aggregate shocks affect inflation inequality. Major update to former JMP.

BLS's first-release estimates of nonfarm payroll employment have gotten more, not less, accurate over time.

Avoid a trade war*

I don’t know about 15-20%, but if we can avoid a trade we then there is a path for these tariffs to be economically beneficial to the US. Need real import prices to actually fall though in order for ToT to improve.

"While the world fixates on Donald Trump’s populist cocktail of reciprocal tariffs and big, beautiful deficits, @JMilei is delivering a man-made miracle that should gladden the heart of every classical economist and quicken the pulse of all political libertarians." 1/5

A lot of the policies in this thread are pretty terrible

Even with optimal fertility policy there is a political economy problem…these policies likely benefit young couples at the expense of (high propensity) older voters. Need something like universal suffrage with parents voting on behalf of kids to partially counteract.

Reversing which fuels get subsidized and which get penalized every time control of Washington shifts is about the stupidest way to run an energy system that needs long term planning and stable supply chains.

@OlgaStoddard @QJEHarvard @kbuzard7 @LauraKGee Congratulations!!

Thrilled to have found such a fantastic home @QJEHarvard for this paper w/ @kbuzard7 & @LauraKGee! tinyurl.com/5xkefck4

@KronerNiklas @SorryToBeKurt Congratulations!

I’m thrilled to share that our paper will finally be published in 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐒𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐞𝐬! Huge thanks to editor @SorryToBeKurt and the three anonymous referees for giving us a chance and helping us improve the paper along the way. Thread👇 1/17

@mikekofoed @microsamonomics He should have gone Kearl for 110

@JacobOrchard5 @microsamonomics Don't tell Oren Cass.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news to @mikekofoed and my Mormon economist friends, but the clown show in the Senate on trade is being led by one of ours. Once again I will reiterate: we should not let the lawyers anywhere near discussions of trade or the economy.

@microsamonomics @mikekofoed Very little trade in 381 although there is a little international macro. Fundamentals of comparative advantage are taught in 110.

@JacobOrchard5 @mikekofoed 381 doesn't cover trade much, right?

@mikekofoed @microsamonomics :)

@JacobOrchard5 @microsamonomics I was trying to bail you out here, Jacob!! 😆

@mikekofoed @microsamonomics Half of IR's classes are econ classes...

@JacobOrchard5 @microsamonomics And don't worry, dude doesn't even have an Econ degree...its in IR. So not your fault.

@microsamonomics There are a lot of them and they are high propensity voters.

I am yet to hear a remotely convincing argument to have property tax carve outs for the wealthiest generation that has ever lived.