JakeX

@SVScholar 超跌了涨而已

美股半导体和技术板块大涨特涨！ 纳指：+3.0% VGT：+4.6% SMH：+6.7% 美光：+13.1% SK海力士：+12.9% 闪迪：+20.5% 谁还在担心长鑫存储和中国的光刻机？哈哈哈。

@SVScholar 现在的半导体就是年初的黄金白银

曾经沧海难为水，除却巫山不是云！ 最近，美股经历了大幅调整。 半导体板块基金SMH，从最高点下跌了21%，进入技术性熊市。 存储板块ETF DRAM，更是从最高点下跌了41%！ 在我们几十年的投资生涯中，我们会遇到很多次这种规模的下跌。 经历多了，我们就见怪不怪了。 曾经沧海难为水，除却巫山不是云。 #财务自由 #财富自由 #投资理财 #美股 #美国 #股票 #基金 #投资 #ai #纳斯达克

@tangbaiqiao 弹药库都见底了，打毛线

要全面开打了。川普总统刚才连发多贴，都是剑指伊朗。 这次绝不能再让他们抱幻想了——我指的是伊朗的幕后操纵黑手。歼灭伊朗邪恶政权，刻不容缓！

@DVSignals if copper and platinum rises, silver rise with them.

$COPPER / $SILVER Another ratio chart I’ve posted several times, especially in the second half of ’25. And honestly, ask yourself this: would you ignore an asset that is sitting near the lower side of a long-term relative channel, looks historically depressed versus silver, and is now starting to show a bullish micro-structure / potential breakout? This does not mean silver has to fall. Both copper and silver can (and will) eventually rise together. But on a relative basis, this chart suggests copper may have a very real chance to outperform silver over the coming months / years if the breakout holds. That said, there is room for both in a portfolio. Silver for monetary / precious metals torque. Copper for industrial / electrification / supply-demand exposure. Different roles. Same commodity bull market.

@badcharts1 in what time frame is the question

No need to get emotional about why crude oil can OR cannot go up. Just be smart about it, and follow what the price chart is trying to tell you. $300 to $500 is still quite possible after the breakout.

@SwingTraderQ it only happens when trump TACOs

a highly possible price action for oil next week.

@SVScholar 忘了提黄金白银了， 黄金20% ,白银13.7%

@DonDurrett didn’t see economy weakness in oil demand yet.

Mid-Week Macro The missile exchange between Israel and Iran appears to be over. This has caused oil prices to drop to $65, and the S&P 500 to rally back above 6000. This feels like a top to me on Wall Street, with a lot of bullishness and euphoria. I keep hearing analysts speak optimistically that inflation is under control, interest rates are coming down, and there will be no recession. They are only focusing on the positive data, but there is plenty of negative data they are ignoring. In two weeks, on July 9th, the pause in tariffs will be lifted. I'm expecting Trump to hold firm on high tariffs. Wall Street is expecting him to be Mr Taco (Trump Always Chickens Out). I'm expecting at least one significant trade war, and the average tariff to be at least 15% (the average was 2.5% in 2024). These tariffs are not a nothing-burger, and I doubt that the economy is strong enough to overcome them. Where are the green shoots in the economy? AI? That's probably a net-negative as companies like Microsoft lay off thousands of employees and replace them with AI. Housing/Construction? Nope. Autos? Nope. Small business growth? Nope. Retail? Nope. Restaurants? Nope. Government jobs? Nope. I don't see any green shoots. The economy is muddling along and slowing. Gold continues to track the S&P 500. This began in early 2024 and has been a strong correlation. This is an odd correlation that makes little sense. Historically, this does not happen. When the stock market took off in 2012 and 2013, gold plunged. That is more of the norm. Why is gold so strong with a strong stock market? My take is that the stock market is the poser. Gold is sniffing out real economic problems (massive government debt, Triffin's Dilemma, inflation, de-dollarization, etc). Gold knows that the stock market is in a bubble. Silver is finally making some noise. It closed today at $36.23 and has been over $35 for more than two weeks. However, even at $36, the GSR is at an elevated 92. So, silver continues to underperform. Some think silver is breaking out here, but I think it is a bull trap. Silver is not ready to run yet. It will need a fear trade for that outcome (the stock market to stop going up). Expect gold, silver, and the miners to correct one more time before we are off to the races.

@joshyoung josh for president!

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER

Another big draw

@FirstSquawk FAKE NEWS, what a coincidence both WSJ and IRANWIRE publish this news almost same time

TEHRAN READY TO ABANDON ENRICHMENT BUT NEEDS A FACE-SAVING EXIT - IRANWIRE

asked chatgpt who's behind IRANWIRE and where is it getting funding from... aparantly fake news. #oil

@joshyoung Trump will probably do the same when oil hit 120 dollars per barrel as he hates high oil prices so much

Good thing our leaders were forward looking and built up large Strategic Petroleum Reserves! 😳 Biden: x.com/Josh_Young_1/s…

OPEC+ countries have been dropping rigs and adding back to their supply quotas. We may be close to testing their true spare capacity.

@joshyoung yet you voted for this retard destroying domestic oil business.

And now Trump is demanding payment from the EU for past "unfair trade". Like reparations? This is drifting further and further from Trump campaign promises and stated economic policy goals.

Reciprocal tariffs, with the goal of achieving lower mutual trade barriers and interventions, could work. Trying to use tariffs to eliminate trade deficits is very different, and is likely to be highly destructive if followed through.

@AsiaFinance 自己去搜Google scholar

DeepSeek老板梁文锋，被包装成投资天才；员工罗福莉，被包装成AI天才少女。如果梁文锋是投资天才，又有吓死华尔街的DeepSeek，幻方量化2024年业绩，为何大幅跑输A股大盘？梁文锋究竟干嘛的？主要利用A股散户占比高(约60%)，玩杀猪盘的。怎么玩？以后细说。罗福莉就是杀猪盘的道具，已高薪被小米从DeepSeek挖角。罗福莉之前在阿里达摩院，就是孵化数学天才少女姜萍的地方。据传小米CEO雷军亲自出手，也让罗福莉声名大噪。罗福莉很享受AI天才少女人设，说明她一点都不天才。

@AgWxMan1 @Holy_Helicity the problem with this is that the map is based on 1984-2009 weather data. It would be interesting to understand what does the last 5 year look like

@Holy_Helicity i'm leaving this to ponder.

Leaving this here for all the #natgas folks to ponder. 🤔

@PaulSaladino7 You nailed it!

Final estimate for this Thursday’s #natgas storage report is +39. It feels like we will never see above “average” temperatures again. Weak wind was the saving grace for the report week, but that’s already done.

@ArhimedSM should be oil +6, gas +1, you're talking about canada

@PaulSaladino7 instead of annualized demand, average over season is more accurate.

If #natgas domestic demand was 92 BCFd and net export was 15 BCFd over a 12 month period, you would need to produce 107 BCFd over the same period to keep storage unchanged relative to where it was at the beginning. If you produce 102 BCFd on avg over that period, you have to withdraw (or inject less) an extra 5 BCFd from storage to cover the difference. Assuming this all happened at perfectly “normal” weather and everything else could be held equal, this is what it means to be 5 BCFd tight. I’m looking at smaller slivers of time than a 12 month period.

@PaulSaladino7 How much tighter compared to 5 year avg is the main question, or are we actually looser than 5 year avg?

With the miserable weather, domestic #natgas demand happened to be right at ~91 for the storage report week, .6 BCFd below my annual avg. 104.4 prod, 0 net pipe export, and LNG at only 13.3. All that adds up to a super loose supply/demand balance of… 2.3 BCFd TIGHT Hmmm 🤔

@AnteroResources @EQTCorp Natural gas $1.61. Big natural gas drillers: