Thanks to Barnes & Noble Harrisonburg for hosting a SUPERSTITION signing on Saturday.
Next up I'll be at Shenandoah Comic Con this Saturday with all my books.
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James Blakey
1.3K posts
James Blakey
@JamesWBlakey
Derringer Award Winner. 2004 Delaware State Amateur Chess Champion. SUPERSTITION, a paranormal thriller, from @CityOwlPress
Shenandoah Valley. Katılım Nisan 2022
571 Takip Edilen252 Takipçiler
The unstated assumption is that Monty Hall knows where the prize is and is not randomly opening doors.
If Monty doesn't know where the prize is then:
1/3 of the time the contestant chooses correctly
1/3 of the time Monty accidently reveals the prize and the game must be restarted
1/3 of the time the contestant doesn't switch doors and loses.
So when Monty doesn't know where the prize is, there is no advantage in switching.
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I remember back on GE's GEnie (pre-Internet as we know it BB) in the Jerry Pournelle group this problem came up in discussion. Pournelle and some others said the 2/3 probability was wrong but a handful defending their positions tenaciously and around day three or so, Pournelle said "I'm an idiot. It's obviously 2/3." A very smart man doggedly attacked the correct position for a while before understanding that he was in fact incorrect. For the record, I've had people argue with me relentlessly about this problem and they will not accept the correct answer. So I set up the problem using playing cars and walked through a simulation of 100 rounds and the result were around 2/3; 100 tests is not enough of a simulation. So they came around to believing the correct answer, but they were not happy about it.
Brian Roemmele@BrianRoemmele
In 1990 I wrote a letter to Marilyn vos Savant, Parade Magazine in support of her proof on the Monty Hall Problem. I ran an AI (expert system) test on it and she was right and just about the entire academic community was wrong. They could not accept it. Now they do.
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If you've wondered why an actor doesn't have a better career, the answer sometimes is just them having bad taste
In Helen Mirren's masterclass she said she picks movies by opening the script to the last page to see if her char. is on it or not cause "that means its a good role"
Robert Pattinson Photos | Fansite@pattinsonphotos
Robert Pattinson on the "letterboxd-ification" of being an actor: "It's good, though, you should. I think I'm very snobby about that stuff. I hate it, because there was a long period where you'd meet every single actor and no one had seen anything. And you're like, 'Why haven't you watched any movies?' It's so weird. So many actors have never seen any movies and are not interested."
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@witte_sergei Is this the one where Italian units need extra water rations so they can boil pasta?
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I need nine guys to commit to 1,500 hours of playing time with me so we can achieve the first successful play through of this game. Apparently it’s the longest board game ever made and has never been fully played, even by the playtest group at the publisher.
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Come see me at Barnes & Noble in Harrisonburg tomorrow (Sat Apr 4th) from 2-4pm where I will be signing copies of my paranormal thriller SUPERSTITION.
At Van Buren University when superstitions are broken, students die!
It's FINAL DESTINATION meets URBAN LEGEND. A fun twisty puzzler that will keep you guessing until the final page.
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Grab a free Arc: booksirens.com/book/DIROK9H/H…
Pre-order from amzn.to/4s7xfS4
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Cover Reveal for Virginia Fantastic
Real Places. Unreal Stories. Welcome to Virginia Fantastic.
Coming April 21st, forty-one spooky, thoughtful, and funny stories set across the Commonwealth.
Pre-order or grab a free advanced readers copy at the links in the replies.
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@AlTheBoss03 1998 NFC Championship Game. 15-1 Vikings lose to the Falcons after Gary Andersen (who hadn't missed a FG all season) fails from 40 yards, then the Falcons march down the field and win the game.
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If you're an indie author --fiction or non-fiction-- and not afraid to be seen on my blog, post your name/twitter handle and an Amazon link to one of your books that you'd like people to read.
I (actually my much abused assistant @frost_holl83899 ) will be collecting all these for a post next Monday, to jump start people's Spring reading! (And give them a ready-made intro to you.)
GO.
#indiewriter #writerpublicity #bookpromo.
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@grahamscheper Pittsburgh has entered the chat.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yinz
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Why does English not have a plural “you”?
Well, it’s because “you” is already plural. The singular is “thou”. This was observed grammatically in Old English, when one person was þū and multiple people were ġē, but after the Norman invasion the plural became the polite form of address, and by the 1800s that became the nigh-universal standard.
Nowadays, as a result, we have to reinvent the plural with contractions like “y’all”.
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I'm heading to Barnes & Noble Harrisonburg this Saturday to sign copies of SUPERSTITION (Book One of the Secrets of Van Buren University)
College students break superstitions, then die!
Come grab a signed copy and chat!
Saturday 2-4pm at B&N Harrisonburg Crossing.
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@AlTheBoss03 1981 Cincinnati Reds. Best Record in Baseball. Didn't make the playoffs.
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WWII Alternate History contrast:
US neutral: Germany and USSR slaughter each other for years on the steppes. Millions dead in an endless meat grinder. Both empires bleed out until they're broken husks.
USSR neutral: In August 1945, the US drops the atomic bomb on Berlin. It's over.
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The Red Army won WW2. Not the USA. But Hollywood created a myth. And Americans still believe it. Even after their military loses war after war.
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@allie__voss There was a brief period of time between the jet blowing up over Long Island Sound in the late 90s and 9/11 where some of the busiest airports (All 3 NYC for sure) required a boarding pass to get past security.
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As someone who never experienced airports before 9/11...was there truly NO security? Like you could just walk wherever like a train station?
Sean T at RCP@SeanTrende
Dropped my son off for an unaccompanied minor flight and they give you a gate pass so parents can take them to the gate. You have to sit and wait until the plane takes off. Nostalgic, because this is how it always was for flights until 9/11. You always sat and saw family off.
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@ScoringChanges @Cardinals Shades of 1978 when Ken Forsch through a no-hitter against the Phillies. In the 8th inning, 3b Ken Reitz misplayed a groundball hit by Garry Maddox that was ruled an error, but it could have gone the other way.
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The @Cardinals currently have a no-hitter with Michael McGreevy through six, but this play in the fourth was ruled an error, and this will get appealed. Urias started so far back and fields this on the infield grass. Plays like this are routinely scored or appealed to hits. The @RaysBaseball need a hit so this doesn’t become a bigger deal.
# STLCards #RaysUp
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Rewatched Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory for the first time in probably ten years since Gene Wilder died.
One underrated scene is the computer who refuses to disclose the location of the Golden Tickets. Hilarious, especially for 1971 and the AI world we live in now.
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Everyone talks about how em dashes are a sign of AI generated writing, but what about all the soft-carriage returns and non-breaking spaces that are showing up in my submissions?
Who is randomly but legitimately creating these characters when typing in Word?
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