
Jane Bambauer
244 posts

Jane Bambauer
@JaneYakowitz
I am a professor of law and journalism at the University of Florida where I teach and write about whether/how to regulate data.



In Claudine Gay's 2001 paper, a crucial data point going against her hypothesis disappeared. The paper studied outcomes from 8 elections: "This article uses turnout data from midterm elections in eight states: Georgia, Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania in November 1990; Maryland, Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia in November 1994." While the PhD thesis, which studied the same research question, included 9 elections: "The data for this analysis is drawn from 4 states in the November 1990 elections (Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, and Georgia) and 5 states in the November 1994 elections (Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia)." I bolded the election missing from the 2001 paper - Illinois 1994. This election is noteworthy for having two incumbents with results that are statistically significant in the opposite direction of the hypothesis: In the 2001 paper, there are 8 significant results in the direction of the hypothesis, and 1 significant result in the opposite direction. Although the overall model in the paper is unclear, one can argue that 8 vs 1 makes an argument for the hypothesis. However, if Illinois-1994 was included, we would instead have 9 significant results in the direction of the hypothesis, and 3 significant results in the opposite direction. The argument from these numbers is far weaker, and possibly unpublishable presented in that way. This tells us that the data from the Illinois 1994 election is crucial for the study. Such data points should not be removed without a compelling justification. The paper does not describe a reason for excluding specifically Illinois-1994. The only description it gives is this: The eight states covered in this analysis were selected with attention to two criteria: geographic diversity and variation in district type. Southern and border states account for slightly more than half of the 21 states that have elected blacks to Congress, with the remainder drawn equally from the Northeast and Midwest. The eight states analyzed here reflect that regional variation. This is clearly not sufficient justification for specifically excluding a single data point with a large impact on the hypothesis. I have written an email to Claudine Gay, inquiring about whether there was a reason for excluding specifically Illinois-1994 that was not mentioned in the paper. As of now, I have not received a response.






Just catching up on @FedSoc events last week. It appears that both @ToddZywicki and Richard Epstein had bad experiences with how their personal views on COVID were treated by platforms they never paid a penny to use and now they're much more open to government regulation.



Interesting, surprising, result!



Observation from @BerinSzoka from the floor: Platforms are expected to offer easy to understand rules. But the regulations themselves are not easy to understand.







