Gaius King

The minerals sector has had a negative Beta for 13 years (-9% cumulative) prior to 2025. In the past year, it has suddenly woken up. It’s not AI, it is about selling boring stuff like iron ore, copper, zinc and aluminium.

O&G developments associated with the current Iran crisis. We conclude that time is not on Iran's side economically, it is very close to a social dislocation event, and that this war could be over in weeks! youtube.com/watch?v=oa3j7l…

EU car registration by fuel-type. We find it highly ironic that BEVs were massively subsidised and hybrids (which are due to be phased out eventually) are the sales success (47.1% of all vehicle sales - below).

How do you turn $10,000 into $26 million? Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller did it by putting all his eggs into one basket. Save this to stay ahead of the curve.

Friendly reminder: It isn’t real profit until you sell.

Is the party over for silver? youtube.com/watch?v=UYHChz…

The perennial question that we ask every new year - is this market over-valued or not? Using the Dot.com bubble analogy, the answer is, not yet.  We are in the late 1998/early 1999 stage of the new “Quantum Bubble”; scheduled to burst mid 2027!

Some to speculate that copper is entering bubble territory. We oppose such sentiments, noting that in real terms, the copper price has been effectively plateauing for 22 years, with today's spot not yet even matching the 2011 average annual price.

Diagram from Robin Brooks shows the current silver price rocketing, and platinum appreciation out performing that of gold. The overall laggard appears to be palladium (in percentage terms). But will we see a Short squeeze in Pd? janusanalysis.com/2025/01/09/pal…

@great_martis How can one expect Au to climb, but predict the market to fall" Remember in 2008, at the height of the GFC, gold fell 20% as it was the only liquid asset left. Moreover, this time around, it has been highly correlated with everything else.

**GOLD**✨ Gold's probability of an upside breakout from the symmetrical triangle has increased dramatically. 4130 was the midpoint break; 4180 is the major break. I expect a major move next month. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

2/ Horses v. cars in NYC in 1900 (left.) Horses v. cars in NYC in 1913 (right.)

I love this post, a salutary lesson not to chase the $ (or Au in this case). Thanks for sharing. Though people are queuing to buy not sell jewellery scrap (well not on mass) Though 1980 comparisons miss the mark. The peak at c $850 was blink and you miss it. At Hinde Capital, our first bullion dealer told me he went to the toilet and missed the high altogether (no tawdry jokes, please). That collapse came after a 2,300%+ rise over 9 years, when Volcker finally raised real rates to crush double digit inflation. Policymakers were reacting to the last monetary order change, nearly a decade on We are only now seeing the next one begin in earnest! So we must ask ourselves , what happens if central bank gold holdings rise another 5 to 10%? If portfolio allocations shift from <1% to 10%? Or if nations, read USA, start offsetting their (its) $ liabilities? That is what’s going on… @LukeGromen @ttmygh @ArsenalStu @SantiagoAuFund

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Gold is up 28%. Recently observed lines of people around the block downtown Sydney, queuing to buy bullion is a bad sign.  Joe public are usually the last on the scene. When the FOMO happens, and investors think gold is a one-way bet, usually the opposite happens!

Silver is up 32% in a month. Is that price action sustainable?

How crazy is this, assuming ceteris paribus, gold price only has to increase another 38-43%, and it becomes the worlds largest collective reserve asset; and if tokenised, could suddenly become the world's reserve currency! Again...

The growth in investable gold supply over the past 35-years (taking into account central bank buying/selling) has, in fact, been almost zero. Despite the global economy growing >270% and the amount of USD in circulation increasing by >730%.

The correct context for discussing REEs revolves around their inherent necessity, with additional cost added if supply is suddenly constrained. That the continuation of primary supplies is increasingly critical.

Colleagues liken various REE elements such as Y, La, Nd as having similar crustal abundances as Cr, Ni, Zn or Mo; concluding that REEs are, hence, not that rare at all. We disagree. China dominates this sector for a reason…

Despite Western concerns about China dominating primary REE production, it was assumed that market forces and investment would eventually alter the mined output equation. Yet, since 2018, despite a ~162% increase in global tonnage, China's hold on the market seems intractable.