Jay Frost 🇮🇱 retweetledi
Prime Minister Carney’s message today was largely expected.
The warning signs have been there for months, especially as he increased his international travel. We’ve also reached this point because he has not delivered on his key promise to secure a deal with the United States—a commitment that was both economically important and politically central. In that context, suggesting that the United States is no longer an ally is, quite frankly, hard to believe.
What we’re now seeing is a clear weakening of CUSMA as a reliable trade framework. The possibility of a direct deal between the United States and Mexico—leaving Canada on the sidelines—is no longer far-fetched. That would be a major shift for how trade works in North America.
For the agri-food sector, the risks are real. About 75% of Canada’s agri-food exports go to the United States. That has worked well for years, but it also means we are highly exposed. Diversifying sounds good in theory, but in practice it takes time, money, and new infrastructure. In the meantime, farmers, processors, and distributors would feel the pressure through tighter margins.
In food, geography matters. You can’t move farmland. What we produce has to be shipped, and the farther the customer, the higher the cost. That makes us less competitive. On logistics and supply chains, Canada still trails several G20 countries.
PM Carney's use of “forward guidance” is really about preparing Canadians for what’s ahead, and perhaps shifting blame. But make no mistake, Canada’s position is weakening.
This isn’t really about opinions—it’s about reality. The real test will be how Canadian households, especially the middle class, handle the pressure. The adjustment is coming.
The only question is who will bear the cost.
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