@MoodyWriter13 @DogeChainMaxi @yourkleinod I actually like your analysis a lot. Then I think whether the company you're discussing fits with me or not and make a decision. Not that hard, people are just crazy
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Jesus Lloret
611 posts
Presenting the finest collection of replies to my post, ranked by severity:
@DogeChainMaxi: „Listen up retard. You sold way too early and you’ve been bear posting ever since. And now you’re trying to claim clout? Cope harder.”
@yourkleinod: „Dude, I’m now convinced you are an idiot! You advised to sell it weeks ago, pitching weird arguments why it’s not a bottleneck! Are you real?”
The vocabulary alone tells you everything you need to know about the analytical framework behind it. I have never recommended selling nor buying, for that matter. Sharing an analysis is not a trade instruction. Those who cannot distinguish between the two should perhaps reconsider whose advice they follow.
By “bear posting,” it probably means that I expose specific false claims, such as the idea that Sivers is the central CPO bottleneck, for what they are: incorrect.
Raising concerns is also not bear posting, it is called thinking. A concept, admittedly, not universally accessible.
@HaveANiceFa: „Don’t owe you shit bitch.”
No further commentary needed. I highly recommend following this account, it will make you feel like a philosopher by comparison.
@HracekKamil: „Stop making accusations and attacking people — instead, look for something that will earn you some respect. You’re acting worse than the biggest jerk. All you ever do is complain.”
Whoever feels personally attacked by a factual post like this has likely already identified themselves as the biggest jerk in question.
@PeterSikachev: „Probably not, since you wrote a post about how it shouldn’t be more than a couple % of a portfolio.”
That post was written this week, in the context of current valuations. When I first bought Sivers, it traded at a revenue multiple below three, a risk/reward profile that justified a meaningful position size without hesitation. Today we sit at 71x. Heavily concentrating at these levels reflects poor risk discipline, not conviction. Had I advised high concentration at current prices, my career on X would be over within a year.
@ponzy_picas…: „Do you owe coffee to the people who sold way early when you sold yours and got bearish on it?”
@ETHdv: „But you sold…”
It begins with buying a stock because of person X. When it works out, it was your own brilliance. When it doesn’t, the fault lies with the other. The psychological diagnosis here is clear: illusion of skill, one of the most well-documented and dangerous cognitive biases in investing.
Never became bearish on it, I just became cautious.
@maxvoltrader: „Didn’t you sell after like 100%?”
I sold for the first time after a 4x gain. I had never publicly disclosed that I owned it in the first place. Apparently, it lies beyond the imagination of many that one could sell a position and then buy it back again later. Beyond that: I have never once claimed before to have made X% on any stock. I consistently say I am the worst trader in the room. I share ideas, not performance records.
Criticize my ideas, not my performance.
@Spikeoneth6707: „Nope, anyone religiously following you sold long ago because you said it was overvalued a couple X ago.”
Those who follow anyone religiously, in markets or in life, have already made their most consequential mistake.
never said it is overvalued. It’s not a value trade at all, it’s speculation from the beginning.
@BonyBallf2: „It’s a bit surprising since Serenity also started loving it — you became more and more negative on it. Really feels like your opinion is often driven by ego rather than objective arguments.”
This is perhaps the least unreasonable comment in the thread, but it is still wrong. Growing skepticism alongside rising prices is not ego, it is rational discipline. The higher the valuation, the more rigorously one must scrutinize the thesis. That is not a character flaw, it is what separates experience from enthusiasm.
Moody@MoodyWriter13
$SIVE has gone up more than 1,700% since I first pitched it on X. Is there anyone who bought it back then and is still holding it? That person probably owes me a coffee.
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$SOX there are multiple ways you can align charts to get to conclusions that fit your bias. Since my base case is that we are at the very tail end of an extended 4Y cycle, I find alignment of current chart vs last leg up in dotcom cycle pretty clean comp. Similar 1.5 month rally of 80% vs 70% now. Double top structure on daily. I expect down cycle into 4Y low to be shorter / faster than during dotcom. Next few weeks will give us an answer.
$SMH $SOXX
Namzes Cycles@Namzes_G
$SOX Semis UPD Thread: 1) Blow off top in progress - question is where does it end? -I find calling tops before we see rollover pointless, we are simply looking for conditions for a top and RR for any future trades -Our best matching cycle from Jan 1 analysis was 94-98 which has come to a spot where that cycle started putting a 2 month distribution top followed by 12 month correction (see updated price and close up view) -Current 3.5Y cycle is already extremely long; I think topping and correction phases will be more compressed and bottom ~Q4.
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@CrypticTrades_ would you say some consumer discretional/non-discretional such as KMB, GIS, CLX would be good buys now? They've gone down a lot
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I have another message to you, my audience.
About 2 months ago, I've said that the time came to take a risk.
To buy when everyone else was calling for lower.
To be bullish amidst all the fear and anxiety.
Those who did and those who followed my advice, are now profiting greatly.
Now the best approach is not to be overly bullish and max long, nor be bearish and try to short.
The best approach now is to secure partial profits and diversify your capital.
Spread out your portfolio across multiple industries, defensive sectors and assets that are still inside high-timeframe accumulation ranges.
The reason is that liquidity always rotates. Profits always get rotated.
So instead of chasing, if you missed out, or even if you were invested and now making profits is to secure part of those profits and diversify them.
This is how real wealth is made and this is how your portfolio actually grows.
Not through leverage and not through unnecessary risk.
Cryptic Trades@CrypticTrades_
The majority of my audience is ~33, so here’s a message to you. Even though markets are currently moving lower, and headlines are filled with negative narratives pushed by mainstream media, I believe these are the moments that truly separate investors. The ability to remain objective in times like this is one of the most important strengths you can have. Over the past couple of months, I’ve been preparing you for a moment like this, consistently emphasizing diversification, maintaining a moderate cash allocation, and avoiding leverage. If you’ve been following me for a while, you already know this has become my core approach. Now it’s time to act. Now it’s time to reduce exposure to defensive sectors, gradually deploy cash, and start scaling out of hedges. When fear peaks, that’s when opportunity is created, not when everyone is euphoric. Right now, everyone is focused on narratives and uncertainty, while ignoring the fact that these moments have historically offered the best buying opportunities. I believe the macro setup is shifting. The labor market is weakening, growth is slowing, and the pressure on the Fed is building. Liquidity will return and the Fed will have to cut rates. But before that happens, I think market makers will continue pushing prices lower to force distribution and shake out participants because accumulation always requires a counterparty. So if you’re in your 30s, this is where you take calculated risk. Not at the top, not during euphoria, that’s when we were raising cash and de-risking. This is where the positioning begins. If you want to follow along, join our group. We share daily updates, reports, and focus on the next buying opportunities: patreon.com/c/cryptictrade… We’ll also be giving away five 1-month Premium subscriptions soon. If you want to enter our campaign, like and repost.
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@CrypticTrades_ I just found you a couple days ago and am reading!
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How many of you are still reading my updates on a day-to-day basis?
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@CrypticTrades_ Which companies are you liking in those sectors?
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In hindsight, it was indeed one of the biggest bear traps I’ve seen in years.
It’s been remarkable to watch how many overly bearish accounts created a massive following over the last few months, only to be proven completely wrong as markets continued higher.
This has never been a bear-market. It was just a bull market correction and so many people have used the emotions of retail investors to make a living, profit, or money for themselves by sticking to the trend.
Me and very few others have stayed objective and amidst all the fear and anxiety, we kept accumulating and position for a reversal.
That's also the reason why I'm so selective in my collaborations.
Right now, I believe the best approach is to hold the majority of your spot positions. Do not overtrade, try to hedge too soon, or flip-flop with your bias with the daily volatility, or the headlines that also change on a daily basis.
Some sectors, especially semiconductors, are clearly overextended, so I think it makes sense to secure profits there and rotate capital into asset classes that are still trading inside high-timeframe accumulation ranges.
That includes areas like Chinese equities, crypto, healthcare, and consumer staples, which I still believe offer better long-term risk-reward setups right now, similar to semis last year.
Cryptic Trades@CrypticTrades_
In hindsight, this will be a great buying opportunity.
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@aleabitoreddit @MinhungShih Have you researched Neuromorphic chips?
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Well we know humanoids/physical AI is coming next in a few years… so maybe this is just the start of a new Industrial Revolution but for AI?
Idk if OpenAi capex is sustainable, but industry as a whole will keep on thriving given national security implications and economic benefits
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I think this is one of only times in history.
Where a bunch of random sht ends up the most important in the world, if its used for AI.
So the entire market looks like a meme after random companies or commodities go up 2000-6000%.
Is this the modern day digital gold rush?
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@MoodyWriter13 Understandable, since it’s a private company it’s hard to know whether they have a healthy balance sheet or not
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@Jesusjlloret It looks attractive, but I gave it a pass, I just don’t have enough knowledge about it.
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Indium was discovered in 1863 at the Mining Academy in Freiberg, Germany. In the same city, the company Freiberger Compound Materials is based, which, alongside AXT and Sumitomo, is one of three major InP wafer producers, though significantly smaller than the other two. Freiberger’s primary strength is as one of the world’s leading GaAs substrate manufacturers. 12.5% of the company is owned by Infineon, while the remainder belongs to the Israeli holding company Federmann Enterprises Ltd. In 2022, Freiberger generated €80 million in revenue. $AXTI generated $88 million in revenue in FY2025, at a current market capitalization of nearly $6 billion. I would bet that Freiberger is currently not valued anywhere near that.
Roughly 60 km south of Freiberg lies Europe’s second-largest indium deposit (1,400 tonnes), held by Saxony Minerals & Exploration AG (SME AG, private) under a mining permit. A Singapore-based investor, Prime Africa Trade PTE, has offered €150 million for all SME shares, but the deal is currently under review by Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, approval is unlikely given the critical raw materials classification. The pilot processing plant has so far only proven the economic separation of tungsten and fluorspar, not indium. For investors, this is only relevant via SME AG’s corporate bond (A2YN7A), currently trading at ~45% of par.
Indium is almost always a byproduct of zinc mining.
The largest indium deposit in Europe is Neves-Corvo in Portugal, owned by the Swedish mining company Boliden AB $BOL.ST , which acquired the mine from Lundin Mining in April 2025 for $1.3 billion. The deposit holds an estimated 3,480 tonnes of indium, roughly 140 tonnes pass through the mine’s processing chain annually as a byproduct of zinc and copper production. However, Boliden does not currently extract or separate indium, it ends up in zinc smelter residues and tailings. The scientific groundwork for indium recovery exists, and with indium prices having tripled since 2020 and Chinese export controls tightening, the economic case for retrofitting Boliden’s own Nordic smelters is strengthening, but no corporate commitment has been made yet.
The two European indium deposits are larger than any known deposits in the United States.
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$FLY, Eclipse progress looks good too: COPVs, interstage and LOX line qualified, first stage tanks in proof test, Miranda hot fire at 110% (thank you) - but timeline probably delayed (this is fine tbh).
> COPVS = high-pressure helium tanks, historically the most failure-prone structural item on a launch vehicle
> Interstage = the cylinder connecting stage 1 and 2;
> LOX line = the cryogenic plumbing feeding oxidiser to the engines.
Qualifying all three and Eclipse hot fire at 110% is meaningful de-risking.
> But no maiden flight window reiterated in the Q1 deck, my bull case is now Q2 2027, base case Q3 2027.
PS. I haven't been following $RKLB enough to know if they give this much visibility, but I am happy with this detail
PPS. No tank explosions or similar!
AlmaCap@AlmaCap114204
$FLY, earnings looks good to me - Management delivering on their very bullish guidance: > Q1 revenue of $80.9m (+45% YoY) and reiterated $420–450m FY26 guide (i.e. most of revenue should come in Q2-4) > Stuff we already knew: Golden Dome selection + $109m FORGE ECP + a clean Alpha Flight 7 > Losses widened on R&D, but we expected this. Next catalyst probably Alpha block 2, though I am personally more excited about lunar lander and Scitec stuff
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$CABA Small crap Biotech...nice set up. big run the last time.
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@AlmaCap114204 I’ve got a 22,5 average which is why I’m chilling so far, and why I haven’t considered buying after it took off. If it comes down I’ll probably buy more. Like you said, they’ve raised a toon at the highs, so even if it takes a bit longer I think they’re in a good spot.
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Have a lost a lot of trust in Management but a few things keep me longer-term bullish:
> Their technology is still several years ahead of any competitor
> Their MNO partnerships provide them the best route to the customer once the constellation is up - distribution is arguably more important that quality of product
That said, for a growth company like $ASTS with uncertain capex programmes etc I would also highlight that a good capital raising strategy is to "dilute whilst you can" - so far they have done this very well, but one should always bear in mind the possibility of another (even with sigifnicant liquidity)
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@Namzes_G Do you think all these investments into photonics/CPO will still work out after this October low?
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Pretty clear to me that economy, earnings and inflation are accelerating while unemployment going lower. 6% deficit and NGDP mean plenty of money in the private sector to withstand oil spike
-The idea that Fed will cut into hot economy and inflation and inflation expectations rising in the middle of supply shock is bizarre
-I think cutting cycle is likely over - rate hikes are ahead with 2Y now above FFR; market signaling fed policy is too lose
-Fed about to lose long end of bond market with 10 and 30Y rates.
-Warsh will be tested as policy appears to be too lose, Fed running QE into hot economy, markets, inflation while financial conditions are extremely lose
-Inflation is a policy choice and remains most unpopular one and the reason why democrats lost in 2024 and why Trump/GOP will lose next few years.
Namzes Cycles@Namzes_G
#GDP 2026 Cycles Fed database doesn't have enough data, so best we can do is identify what fits the current data set -5.5Y cycle is common across many macro data sets and if it is in play then growth should have a low around now and expand into 2027 or even 2028 - It's not as clean and given data limitations take it with a grain of salt. But given the expansion in the money supply till late 2025, I think it's reasonable to expect both inflation and growth surprise to the upside next 2 years. P.S. Projection is from July 2023
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@ParadisLabs I think it’s fair to expect standard 40h week, no matter the industry. At the end of the day you’re just an employee, you’re not an owner. I’ve been through similarly intense industries and it’s just not worth it. It being the “engine” of the world ATM doesn’t matter.
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People working at $TSM are going to therapy because it's too stressful...
I'm a big advocate of going to therapy (especially men), but come on now.
You're not working at some startup that has an office dog and quarterly offsites to Lake Como.
Semis probably has to be the most demanding industry to work in rn?
Curious if anyone has had any direct experience working with/at $TSM - is it really as bad as people are making out? Some deeper ongoings that aren't being explicitly spoken about maybe?
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@MoodyWriter13 I would personally encourage you to write even if there are other analysis out there. I personally like your down-to-earth view.
On another note, could you explain how to find these gems? I really liked the MTU aero engines thesis and want to buy them after your review. Thanks!
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At the moment, you can see investors making life harder for themselves by overcomplicating things. As the old market wisdom goes: keep it simple. In a world full of supposed bottlenecks, technical “revolutions” (real or imagined), and niche leaders promising big revenues in a few years, many lose sight of what matters.
The real edge often lies elsewhere: in owning businesses that will win regardless, and are already undervalued today, not just in some projected future. Or, as another piece of market wisdom puts it: the best investments are the ones where you don’t have to be right about everything.
RS Technologies (3445 J) was, and still is, one of those cases. The company is the world’s leading recycler of semiconductor wafers (market leader with ~33% share, with TSMC and Sony as anchor customers), turning what would otherwise be industrial waste, used test wafers, into an indispensable reclamation service with a 38% operating margin. This service is required at every single step of semiconductor production, whether for AI chips, power chips, or photonic chips. The company sits like a toll booth on the entire semiconductor highway, without depending on any single technology or end market.
The stock has since closed part of its absurd valuation gap. Yet even now: at a current market cap of ~159 bn JPY, the economic stake in its publicly listed Chinese subsidiary GRITEK (688432.SH) plus the net cash position alone amount to roughly 150 bn JPY, meaning the entire profitable core business is still being handed to you for almost nothing. With an EV/Owner-FCF of ~16x (or ~10x adjusted for the GRITEK value), the stock remains remarkably cheap even after the rally.
I had written an article about RS Technologies but never published it. There were already a few good ones out there, and I thought no one was waiting for my version.
But opportunities don’t disappear because they are written about, they disappear when they are understood.
Setups like this exist everywhere. The challenge isn’t just finding them, it’s having the clarity to recognize them and the discipline to act.
Don’t overpay for optionality. Pay for what is already statistically mispriced.
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@ParadisLabs Do you think they could reinstate the PO confidentially? They’ve been working with poet through celestial AI for years at this point, seems like that’s a lot of tech to just kick down the drain no?
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Bloody hell.
$POET down >30% - $MRVL canceled all orders for Celestial.
Due to confidentiality breaches by $POET.
RIP.
(I have a position lol)
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@Jesusjlloret $NVTS in the US / Infineon in EU
$NVTS already have a partnership 1/ $GFS for GaN production
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Who sold $IQE on the first dip lol?
$IQE up 14% today.
I'm expecting a 2x from here to ~1.1B MC.
And plan to buy any dip on the way up.
Photonics tailwinds are huge for $IQE:
-> $LITE are $IQE's flagship customer
-> $LITE's VCSEL & EML epiwafers are exactly what $IQE grows on InP/GaAs.
-> And $LITE's order book is sold out to 2028 - CEO has basically said demand is too high for them to cope with.
Locked-in multi-yr volume + sold out book = multi-yr revenue for $IQE.
Follow the money downstream and buy the winners.
It's that simple man.
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs
“ $IQE dropped 20%. Shall I sell?! ” No. I added heavily to my position on last week's dip. Summary on why I'm adding to my $IQE position on any dip: 1. Upstream supply chain tailwinds: $IQE's photonics & GaAs segments rely on $AXTI's substrates. $AXTI guided “sequential revenue growth in Q1 2026, driven by growth in InP for the AI infrastructure build-out.” With InP backlog >$60M and plans to 2x capacity in 2026. Since InP substrates are crucial for 1.6T transceivers and CPO: $AXTI's capacity ramp directly removes any chokepoint for $IQE's photonics epi output. And still, $IQE has internal substrate manufacturing capabilities in UK/USA - which produces GaAs, InP, and GaN. 2. Downstream demand sold out: $LITE are $IQE's flagship customer (multi yr VCSEL/EML epi partner): - $LITE has its hyperscaler order book sold out through 2028. - $LITE CEO said “we’re falling further and further behind the demand” - With agreements locking multi yr visibility straight into $IQE's photonics segment. - $NVDA $2B+ investments in $LITE & $COHR signal hyperscalers are locking in capacity yrs ahead, with epi being a huge bottleneck. $LITE's VCSEL & EML epiwafers are exactly what $IQE grows on InP/GaAs. So, locked-in multi-yr volume + sold out book = multi-yr revenue for $IQE's photonics segment. Then you also have $QRVO + $SWKS as $IQE customers for GaAs/GaN epi. It’s less obvious, but $AVGO also source GaAs/GaN epiwafers from $IQE too for its RF business - even while maintaining captive InP epi capabilities for its photonics products. 3. $IQE are an irreplaceable foundry: - patents on epi wafer growth processes (GaAs, InP, GaN) - 35+ years of proprietary tuning for yield/defect control - $IQE Serves everyone ($LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, etc.) without competing downstream - Chinese players face Western export/qualification walls 4. $IQE is different to competitors (and superior): - Substrate specialists (e.g. $AXTI): Sell raw wafers and lack $IQE's IP. - Vertical integrators ( $COHR, $WOLF, Sumitomo): Do some in-house epi but still outsource for flexibility. $IQE is purely neutral foundry - broader access, no channel conflict. - Asian players (e.g. IntelliEPI): Cost-competitive in GaAs but lack Western defence quals + geopolitical risk. $IQE wins on yield, reliability, and secure supply. $IQE's differentiation is pure-play scale + IP + global compliance = “safe” supplier for customers ----- MC forecast: I personally forecast $IQE to >2x until end of 2026 to ~£1.1B MC. Driven by photonics tailwinds materialising + strong execution - $LITE's 2028 sell-out + $AXTI's capacity doubling signal sustained (and accelerating) epi demand. Then any sale of their Taiwan ops would carry a further premium on top (Board are already encouraging bids). Imo, the 20%+ drop last week was just noise r.e. Iran, and nothing to do with fundamentals.
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Oh, I opened a new position on Thursday's market open.
Curious if anyone can guess...?
- A $15-20B MC turnaround play.
I purposely didn't post about it at the time as I'm essentially trying to catch a falling knife.
And don't want people to just blindly copy.
But had spare cash following a sale I made, and thought "why not?"
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@aleabitoreddit Apologies if that didn’t sit well. I followed some of your calls and am in profit, just reading thoughts from other people smarter than me while trying to understand the tech, so I wanted to know if you knew the guy and understood why he was so against.
Very grateful to you
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@Jesusjlloret I’m not sure how to respond to something so stupid
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All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC.
Markets don't understand what's coming.
From speculative mapping:
> $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL ->
1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial)
2. $MSFT (maia)
3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell)
$SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago.
> $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers"
1. Western Hyperscalers
> $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)->
1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program)
2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers
$SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers.
> $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) ->
1. Alchip (Joint CPO)
2. Intel
3. GUC/Wiwynn
-> $AMZN (Alchip)
-> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible.
$SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier.
As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar.
> $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers
1. $AVGO ELS (possible)
2. $META and $GOOGL ELS
3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS
4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS
5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS
$SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC.
Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations.
It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of.
Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward.
$SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the market that's yet to come.
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