Joe

@kpottermn Raises another point: perhaps ULCCs have scaled in Europe partly since they’re the only trans-national brands on the continent. Euros have formed conglomerates but brands are still national l. US ULCCs don’t have that advantage - all major airlines at this point are nationwide.

@JoeTravels Yeah but we’re talking about dominating one hub vs US carriers controlling 60%+ of share at a half-dozen major population centers.

“The business model clearly doesn’t work, Spirit should be allowed to fail.” The problem is this is bigger than Spirit. The question now should be: Why doesn’t the business model work here while low-cost carriers flourish in Europe & Asia? Is there something fundamentally different about American travelers & what they want? Maybe, but not enough. Did US airlines do it worse? Also no, IMO. There are lots of factors (rising costs far beyond jet fuel being a big one) but one differentiator here is entrenched major US airlines have been permitted to dominate hub after hub & loyalty programs (read as: credit card revenue) that dwarf what exists in every other country, allowing big airlines to offset otherwise unprofitable flying. You need scale to truly compete in the airline industry. Major carriers were able to bury Spirit with that scale. There’s a reason why new upstarts like Breeze & Avelo really only fly between second-, third- and fourth-tier cities… As more airlines fail or merge, the big get bigger. This feels like a turning point. It’s only going to get worse. And while the lower cost end of the market vanishes, everyone else is moving upmarket: chasing “premium” travel at higher fares … yet retaining the even higher nickel-and-dime fees you all hate. This isn’t just about Spirit. We’re returning to that so-called “Golden Age of Air Travel” … and I’m not sure consumers are going to like it.

@kpottermn 3) US network carriers offering more competitive products because it’s more imperative for them (EU network carriers derive more revenue from longhaul where ULCCs irrelevant) 4) tons of secondary (even tertiary) airports with super cheap operating costs

@kpottermn Rather, I think relative prevalence of ULCCs in Europe vs US a function, at least in large part, of: 1) much shorter stages so cust exp doesn’t matter as much 2) AOC jurisdiction shopping to lower labor costs …

#otd 100 years ago, Charles Lindbergh took off from Chicago to St Louis on the inaugural flight of Robertson Aircraft, one of the forerunners of today’s @americanair. A few months ago, I got to visit @mohistorymuseum and see his original handwritten logbook from that day. #avgeek

@analyticflying 3/ Won’t belabor any longer. Again, with respect - your writing and analysis is quite interesting. Thanks for sharing it! I just simply don’t agree UA w 789 (and virtually every other airline) are going big into premium, at expense of density, for “vibes” - or payload.

@analyticflying 2/ And sure, payload restrictions can be deduced from US DOT data but, thanks for confirming it is deduction. In markets like US-AU where UA has been running eye popping low LFs in some months, payload doesn’t matter.

🚨NEW: A few weeks back there was a lot of tongue wagging at United's new premium heavy B787-9: It's not about a premium boom but rather payload restricted ULH routes → if they're forced to sell fewer seats, then they need to sell more premium seats! analyticflying.com/p/uniteds-low-…

@analyticflying In any event, again, not really quibbling with data so much as conclusion. I don’t believe a small subset of restricted flights would drive a very-high-premium LOPA. That investment requires … premium. UA is observing same as entire industry: that’s where money is in longhaul.

@analyticflying Source: Diio. Last year, 20% of UA’s 789 depts were >LAX-SYD. And indeed, actually depts with weight restricts is way lower than that. You’re right, not a paid subscriber - apologies - but must admit my interest is piqued how you’re getting payload restrictions from DOT. 🤔

@analyticflying To be clear, and with all due respect: not saying range assist from lower TOW isn’t helpful. Certainly is in ~20% of cases. But I do not think that is the primary motivator of investing so much cabin real estate and fleet dis-commonality in a second LOPA. I think it’s … premium.

@analyticflying FY25 ~80% of UA 789 depts were in markets well within ac capability (say, advertised range - 1000sm), basically LAX-SYD or shorter. Day-of dispatch can vary, sure, though so can booked LF. So respectfully, don’t think UA is doing such a low-density LOPA for *up to* 20% of depts.

@analyticflying Vast majority of missions, with UA’s LOPA, are within 789’s capability - so doubt investment required for a new LOPA was made on that basis. Much more likely - it is (mostly, if not fully) as said: premium is where money is made in longhaul, even more/increasingly so these days.

@JoeTravels I think you’re underestimating just how big the payload restrictions are and on how many routes. The article shows them route by route. When you consider the scale it becomes pretty obvious.

@MCCCANM Doubtful. As a passenger and avgeek, the 757 is one of my all time favorite airplanes. But from an airline’s POV, it’s not economically sensible - even reengined. It’s overly capable for the vast majority of missions, which was ok in 1985 vs a 727, but not in 2025 vs NEO/MAX.

On the one hand, yes, it looks out of date & Russian jets are sketchy. On the other hand, if Boeing announced they were restarting the 757 line w/ new engines & a couple efficiency updates, the airlines would fight each other to buy it. They love that jet.

@OneMileataTime Not sure if this was the industry first, but AA was using the term 'suite' - to describe the second-generation 777 F product - as early as May 2000: web.archive.org/web/2000062013…

Why Are Airplane Seats Called Suites, And Which Airline Started The Trend? onemileatatime.com/insights/airpl…

@davidshepardson faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/….

@davidshepardson PATCO strike was similar, if more immediate: FAA mandated % reductions to traffic in the NAS, including at particular airports.

As I said tonight on TV, @AmericanAir COO notes these cuts are unprecedented

We are saddened by the passing of Jim Lovell, commander of Apollo 13 and a four-time spaceflight veteran. Lovell's life and work inspired millions. His courage under pressure helped forge our path to the Moon and beyond—a journey that continues today. go.nasa.gov/41tbrpq

This is cool ✈️🤓 Ever needed to spend an extra day in Europe conducting business, or wanted another day to see a few more attractions, before heading home? Starting this winter, that will be possible with the only westbound transatlantic redeye from Western Europe to the U.S.!