J ◎ E _ HAHA

What just happened? At 2:30 PM ET today, CBS News reported that President Trump was considering "boots on the ground" in Iran. Then, at 3:43 PM ET, President Trump said "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran," with the S&P 500 hitting a new 2026 low. Exactly 90 minutes later, at 5:13 PM ET, President Trump said the US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran. Between the 3:43 PM ET and 5:13 PM ET comments, the S&P 500 had already risen nearly +1% on NO news. By 6:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 rallied +1.8% from its low, adding +$900 BILLION in market cap. Markets are now closed until Monday.

@clashreport "Kudos"

A French naval officer unknowingly revealed the location of the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle by sharing a public workout on the fitness app Strava. His run, recorded at sea, made it possible to pinpoint the carrier’s position in the Mediterranean near Cyprus. Although the carrier’s deployment was public, sharing its exact real-time location is a serious security risk. Source: Le Monde

Lmao, Krteček on the way to save the world economy

Another significant drop in volume of drones and missiles launched towards the UAE, maybe Iran is running out of steam

@WhiteHouse Instead of posting vile war memes, how about you support your allies so they don’t get hit by tonnes of drones and missiles every day

UNDEFEATED.

Frustratingly, this is quite accurate

FRENCH PRESIDENT MACRON: WHEN CYPRUS IS ATTACKED, THEN EUROPE IS ATTACKED

Huge drop in drones sent on the UAE! #Dubai is so back!

@thisgatekey I agree with all your points, inflation is quite likely. Main factor will be duration of the war - this war obviously has more impact on oil -> inflation than the Ukraine one

@Joe_Ha__ that's a good point Joe Think a lot of equities drip down lower during this crisis although think peak fear is now or closer As we say with Ukraine markets get familar with wars so impact lessens over time I do wonder if inflation rattles markets later in the year though?

If #Oil keeps exploding like this, it’s going to trigger a lot of crises. Nearly 100% of manufactured goods rely on petroleum somewhere in the chain. Fertilizers (tied to nat gas/oil) already spiking 10-20% YoY.. food prices next?

@swarmister How are you positioning yourself based on your thoughts about the situation then?

If we take five wars during which oil prices skyrocketed, four of them took place in the Middle East. Historically, oil price increases have acted as a tax on the global economy. Almost every major wave of inflation over the past 50 years has been linked in one way or another to oil shocks. The oil shock of 1973 revealed a new economic phenomenon for the first time: stagflation. This is a condition that still makes central banks nervous. When oil prices rise, everything else automatically becomes more expensive: transportation, manufacturing, energy, food, and living costs. Rising production costs are the most dangerous type of inflation. Central banks have almost no control over it, and raising interest rates does little to help. Note that it is raising, not lowering. With rising inflation, the only available tool for containment is tightening policy. But there is an important factor. The duration of the war and the stability of oil prices. These two elements directly determine whether inflation will become sustainable. Every major spike in oil prices during conflicts has been accompanied by a jump in inflation. From 3% to 11%, then to almost 15%. This inflation was treated with the same method. By raising interest rates. Paul Volcker had to raise the financing rate to almost 20%. As a result, this is how the economy regained relative stability and, in a few years, brought inflation down from almost 15% back to about 3%. But what had to be gone through. A severe recession, falling markets, bankruptcies. Volcker acted within the framework of Milton Friedman's ideas. The concept is called monetarism. The essence is simple. The less money there is in the system, the lower the demand. The lower the demand, the less pressure on prices. According to Fed research, every $10 increase in oil prices adds about 20 basis points to inflation. If oil stays above $110, inflation could rise to about 3.5%. But today's situation is more complicated than in the 1980s. Back then, global debt was about 100% of world GDP. Now it exceeds 330%. The economy has become much more sensitive to interest rates. What could be done under Volcker today could break the financial system faster than it could stop inflation. The paradox of the current situation is that if monetary policy continues to be eased amid rising oil prices, inflation could accelerate again. But if we fight inflation by tightening policy, it could trigger a financial crisis, which is already being talked about openly. CPI data will be released on Wednesday. The forecasts do not look encouraging. If the data turns out to be worse than expected, the market could experience a new round of chaos. If it is better than forecast, the markets will simply get a little more time. It is important to understand how the markets interpret this data. They do not evaluate the figure itself, but how it will affect further monetary policy and interest rate cuts. If inflation turns out to be higher than expected, it will be a double trigger. The dollar will rise and pressure will be exerted on other markets. And let me remind you separately what stagflation is. Rising unemployment. The latest data has already surprised the market. Unemployment stood at 4.4%. Rising inflation. Given the rise in oil prices and all oil derivatives, inflation may indeed turn out to be higher than forecast. Economic slowdown. We are talking about GDP growth rates. In the last publication, the data jumped from 4.4 to 1.4. This is a huge gap and direct evidence of an economic slowdown. The Fed has long since stopped calling crises crises, recessions recessions, and stagflation stagflation. No one will tell you this directly. But the signs will always be there. You wrote an excellent article, my friend.

Woah, that's a big drop in drones numbers, since the start of the war Iran sent no less than 100 UAV's per day against the UAE... yesterday, only 18! Approaching de-escalation?

@AJENews Turkey's F-16s are American. Stationing them in occupied Cyprus would be considered a retransfer to a to a "non-recognized territory". Such a move would violate ITAR restrictions but also Arms Export Control Act (AECA) so we can expect sanctions on 🦃

BREAKING: Turkiye deploys F-16s, air defence systems to Northern Cyprus  🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/a49wlz?update=…

@JSchanzer But why is 🦃 doing this? Surely it’s not much difference flying them from their land or from Cyprus - assuming this is for potential threat from Iran or proxies

A truly dangerous development that doesn’t seem to be widely understood

the numbers speak for themselves: UAE has held strong under unprecedented pressure. 7 days of IRGC attacks on the UAE. only 3 fatalities. UAE haters in shambles.

@TitanInvincible Where exactly is this?

An attack in Ras Al Khaimah in the UAE

@Sherrypeter You heard it from Marina Gate?

@Grantblocmates Surely not attacking those countries but US bases there

I’m no military expert but this seems like the stupidest move you could possibly make

@Wachit0Rico He must be already from insider-trading at axiom during the memecoins season, but extra $500k is a nice bonus adding insult to injury

@Joe_Ha__ Step 5 Become rich

step 1 - be insider trading, step 2 - get caught, step 3 - bet on yourself on polymarket.. step 4 - profit $500k lol