John Ballingall
2.5K posts
John Ballingall
@JohnBallingall
Economist at Sense Partners, trade geek, rugby ref. All comments my own.
Wellington, NZ Katılım Eylül 2009
885 Takip Edilen1.1K Takipçiler
@JamieWall2 Both teams medical teams and paramedics all attending to a shit ref carrying on with a stinger……
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@NewYorkNixon @JamieWall2 Perhaps we should trial a reduced role for the TMO that would have prevented this... but that would be one of the stupid SRP law innovations that are so detested oop North 😉
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@JamieWall2 TMO involvement when not required, trying to adjudicate the dumbest law in sport.
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This was stupid by the ref. He should’ve awarded England a scrum since he’d changed his mind.
Ben Coles@bencoles_
Steve Borthwick afterwards mentioned the confusion around this knock-on. Fin Smith kicked the ball away, having been told England had a penalty advantage, right as Nika Amashukeli said it was just a knock-on (after a call from the TMO) and that advantage was over. Led to Bielle-Biarrey's fourth (!) try. "I think that World Rugby needs to look at that kind of situation. You can't have the players playing with certain knowledge and then it taken away from them."
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@JohnBallingall OK well that opens up a serious issue then. Teams adjust what they're doing if they have an advantage, likely try kicks etc. so you shouldn't be able to wipe that off
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Jeez that was the shortest penalty advantage you’ll ever see, England ripped off there
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@MadMaclegend Like I have a life beyond trade policy...🥲
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NZ is named amongst 60 countries to be investigated. More tariff uncertainty awaits. Sigh.
But it's a big [yuuuge] stretch to say NZ's lack of a ban on forced labour imports burdens or restricts US commerce in any material sense.
Here's why (non-legal take)... brief🧵
1/5
United States Trade Representative@USTradeRep
Ambassador Greer launched Section 301 investigations into acts, policies, and practices of 60 economies to determine whether foreign governments have taken sufficient steps to prohibit the importation of goods produced with forced labor. Learn more: ustr.gov/about/policy-o…
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NZ has an opp to present its case and I know we'll do so v strongly. So no need to panic yet.
But consideration of some deal, or signs of movement towards more stringent measures on forced labour, may be required, regardless of the lack of economic logic here.
5/5
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US has never raised this as a concern for NZ in its annual 'National Trade Estimates' doc where it lists trade/reg beefs with each country. And it's usually not shy in flagging gripes, no matter their merits. So this is a very novel line of attack. Grasping at straws?
4/5
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@MadMaclegend @NZWarriors Thoughts and prayers for your already tenuous sanity
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Time to get back onto the Greatest Rollercoaster in Sports....
The @NZWarriors
#UpTheWahs
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The X-axis on this graph that was on the news does not use a uniform time scale. The Labour years are compressed. Each unit of horizontal space represents about 12 months on the left and roughly 2 months on the right.
What’s with that?
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Hopefully NZ doesn't count as "a major trading partner" or Pharmac procurement (a longstanding bugbear of the US) doesn't trigger s301 tariffs.
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Key govt objective now is to avoid NZ-specific s301 (should be fine - we don't really have unfair trade practices) and hope s232 (national security) is not used on more of our key exports. Latter seems low risk outside steel & aluminium but no doubt creative arguments may emerge
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Excellent summary of alternative tariff options the President could use. None are as flexible as the way Trump used IEEPA tariffs, but all have potential to affect NZ.
Council on Foreign Relations@CFR_org
"The Supreme Court’s ruling on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) takes away one tool of the president’s current trade agenda, but there are several others that the president can use to raise tariffs. However, because there is no exact replacement for the sweeping authorities that Trump claimed under IEEPA, he will need to rebuild his tariffs in a patchwork," writes expert @InuManak. cfr.org/articles/how-t…
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John Ballingall retweetledi
Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, on which Trump’s 10% tariff is based, does not apply in the current macro environment. A balance of payments deficit is not the same thing as a trade deficit. You cannot have a balance of payments if you have a flexible exchange rate, as the US currently does.
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@kellyenz s122 is about a BOP deficit not a trade deficit. And def not trade balance with individual countries.
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Section 122 tariffs need to make the case that our trade balance is a serious balance of payments concern. First point: it’s tiny and second point it’s not persistent and third point it’s balanced by a services deficit with the US.
Kelly Eckhold@kellyenz
I reckon we have a court case if the US wants to argue that a country with a history of a trade deficit with the US that just recently poked into surplus is a serious balance of payments situation.
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Yeah the Deadliest Catch crews face some gnarly Baring Sea conditions but they've never faced recycling night in a Wellington 'summer'.
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