John Cardosa

“At some juncture you just decide to turn towards what hurts. That becomes the grounds for real compassion.” - Frank Ostaseski

@edu_trades Went through each one of his March trades this weekend to learn. Super helpful.

El mejor recap que he visto en mi vida (no estoy exagerando). Velo y dale gracias a Dios que este pana hace esto gratis y trata de aprender de cada palabra que dice.

@RealSimpleAriel @FelipeGuirao 🙋🏻‍♂️ new trader surviving(ish) .. you've both helped alot.

@FelipeGuirao The nice part for new traders.. if you survive this you’ll make it through mostly anything 💯😅

Demanding “open the Fuckin’ Strait,”sounds much different than, “we can get the strait opened up anytime” What a disaster this situation has turned out to be.

@RealSimpleAriel 3rd time is the charm

$AXTI tried again on the 25th, A weaker close and an opportunity to add on the short side several times that day. Adds on the 26th and 27th as the stock tried to go green. Red/green are areas I like to keep an eye on for adds. This was the trade that made the month.

March 2026 recap! Market kept up its choppy ways until finally losing the 200sma. That provided opportunities but not without some headaches along the way. Please feel free to retweet this to your trader friends! Lets dive in. 🧵

@Mr_Derivatives @amitisinvesting The Bondi Collar.

@amitisinvesting Be hilarious if her ousting today marks THE low in the Dow…

BONDI IS OUT AS PER FOX NEWS but the Dow hit 50K

"US makes enough oil and doesn't need the strait" is the new "foreign countries pay the tariffs" .. Exxon et al make oil, not countries. Exxon et al sell at global prices.

@LizAnnSonders @Jesse_Livermore "US makes enough oil and doesn't need the strait" is the new "foreign countries pay the tariffs" .. Exxon et al make oil, not countries. Exxon et al sell at global prices.

Had a short convo in airport yesterday with a guy who said, “we’re not impacted at all from the war because we are a net exporter” … I suggested that is a flawed argument given that oil is a globally-priced commodity and we don’t sell oil to ourselves at a domestic discount; not to mention that U.S. consumers and businesses pay global prices regardless of where barrels were pumped … oh, and, energy is an input cost embedded throughout supply chains … he said he hadn’t been thinking of it that way … hmmm

@investingluc You've saved me money this week.

I never want to be a "told you so" guy. But this is a great lesson on why flipping your bias should be a deliberate, grinding process...not a switch. It's SO easy to tweet "we're so back" after a +3% day for $SPY...when in reality: - uncertainty is still high - indices still under key moving avg's - $vix still elevated - oil still holding $100 - headlines still aren't adding up Process > urgency

@NickSchmidt Simple and hard. Thanks in large part to your wisdom, I'm just watching rn.

I think people underestimate how much stress comes from trying to have an opinion on every move. If you just zoom out and identify whether the market is trending up, down, or going sideways, most of the decisions are already made for you. Trending up, you stay long until the evidence changes. Trending down and you're in cash or short. Sideways and you do as little as possible. You don't need to interpret every headline or have a complicated thesis for everything. Identify the trend, and act accordingly. That simplicity is boring but its an edge.

@ohiain This is why I subscribed last week. Buying pretty breakouts hasn't worked. The stop loss levels are obvious and the trade is crowded. I was getting wicked out over and over again. I prefer to buy them ugly.

Most traders are taught to chase breakouts… but what if that’s actually where the worst risk/reward exists? This year specifically, I've been prioritizing undercut & reclaim entries > breakout entries, and it’s not even close in terms of consistency. Partly due to the current market conditions. For a long time, I was drawn to the obvious breakout pivot, price pushing through resistance, volume increasing, and everyone watching the same level. It feels right because it's too obvious. But over time, I realized I was often paying a premium for that confirmation... buying extended, taking on greater risk, and leaving myself with less margin for error. What’s worked far better for me recently is recognizing tightness on the daily, then waiting for that short-term shakeout below a major level. That moment where price dips, triggers stops, creates a bit of fear…and then reclaims the level. That reclaim with velocity is what I'm watching for. Because what’s actually happening beneath the surface is a transfer of ownership...weak hands getting flushed out, liquidity being created, and stronger buyers stepping in. When price reclaims that level with intent, I now have something incredibly valuable: > a tight, clearly defined risk point. > I know exactly where I’m wrong. > I’m getting a better price... ...and I’m often positioned before the breakout crowd even reacts. Most of my best trades this year have come from that exact sequence: 1) tightness, shake, reclaim, then expansion. This doesn’t mean breakouts don’t work, but for me, the edge as of recent has been in positioning before the obvious move, not after it. It forces patience from me, it sharpens my execution, and it keeps my risk controlled. At the end of the day, I’m trying to enter where the trade makes the most sense from a risk perspective. And as of recent, that’s on the reclaim, not the breakout!

@NickSchmidt T-minus 2 mins until your bachelor party wknd really gets going. Have fun!

@JohnCardosa The hero’s will put the bottom in for us!

This was what made me change my stance and go to cash. $QQQ chopped up & down for months *randomly* and then started to have new respect for the declining 10-week which looked like organized selling. From my article on Mar 8.

@NickSchmidt I am .. I live in Phx. Let me know if you need any recs for dinner etc!

@JohnCardosa You’re here?! I’m in Scottsdale for a few days

Dinosaur spotting in Arizona

@RealSimpleAriel @jimcramer Bro 😂

@jimcramer Jim are you watching the 1min chart again?

Strange divergence: crude says the war is winding down.. The S&P futures say be cautious...

@Trading_Boxes Listened to your first Chat with Traders ep today and was really inspired by your story.

Next year you will look back at your swing trades this quarter and be like, I should have just been in cash. But you already know you should be in that right now. Expect you continue to go through papercuts. 80% of gains come from 20% of trades. You think that large gain size is coming from this current environment?

@investingluc @TheShortBear See also: tariffs last year.

Well said. The tacos are taco’ing anymore. Going to need a different external force to move this market imo. Don’t think it’s going to be Trump. We just saw it. He made an announcement about the war being over, but the market wouldn’t really move until it heard iran’s confirmation of peace negotiations…which never really came

Markets seem to react increasingly muted off of admin headlines. We keep seeing headlines but no follow-through on promises. We have been hearing about a few days of operations... became weeks We heard not oil infrastructure would be hit... Hit few days later We heard no troops... But we now have 8k+ troops moving towards Iran Every promise got broken so far and the market seems tired of it. Even the potential Iranian peace deal from yesterday is mostly retraced... Biggest question is what if the market just doesn't believe it anymore and troops actually go in next weekend. Reminder that the 5 day pause aligns perfectly with troops arriving in front of the Iranian coast.

@RealSimpleAriel a clown show that plays out everyday with hundreds of millions of lives affected.

TRUMP: "HAVING TREMENDOUS SUCCESS IN IRAN - IRAN HAS NO LEADERS LEFT - WE ARE TALKING TO THE RIGHT PEOPLE THEY WANT TO MAKE A DEAL" Wouldn't the people in position to make a deal for Iran be considered leaders? 😆