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@nyodober @afc_richard You are wrong. City dropping points equals Arsenal winning the league.

@afc_richard That's why the second option has higher pay than the first. Coz achieving the first is easier than the second.

£10 on City to win the league currently returns £55 But £10 on City to beat Bournemouth & Villa, with Palace to win/draw with Arsenal returns £61.92 with the same bookmaker Am I going mad, but surely that set of results is the only way City can win the league?

@FPLGeneral Barnes

Best Sarr replacement? £6.8m

@LiveFPLnet Happy to test. Samsung A52s Android 14 OneUi 6.1

🚨 LiveFPL Mobile App: looking for (a small number of) beta testers for iOS and Android🚨 They will test it in GW7, hoping for a GW8-ish release. Reply here (include your phone model), don't dm I don't want to overwhelm myself with a huge number of testers so will choose a very limited sample. If you're interested, reply to this tweet with your phone model. Please do not dm about it. I will choose the testers from the replies, priority to people I already know/trust, and to a diverse phone model sample. If chosen, I will dm you later this week to be added to a whatsapp testing group. If you're not contacted, then sorry you won't be a tester, but app will be released soon anyway 🙏

@GianniButtice @CGA_FPL I think the wildcard needs to be considered in the context of the 5 transfers you get in Rd 16. The closer it is to that, the less value in the wildcard.

Thanks Chasers! @CGA_FPL

@dis_fpl Bordeaux

Guess where I am

@keegzfx @LiveFPLnet Your team will revert back to the round 3 team with the numbers of transfers you had at the start of that round for round 5

Indeed, Palmer didn't drop, which is another confirmation of the price lock rule*. Now he can enjoy a 7 day protection. *The rule= when an injured/suspended player (as indicated by a red flag) becomes available (so no longer red), his transfers are reset to zero and kept at zero for 8 days.

@dis_fpl Love this take. The "mistakes" I hate the most are the ones I feel I made because of "group think".

#FPL musings... In the interest of improving our (my) decision making and by virtue our FPL play I think it's important to reflect. I do not make this post to say X was wrong or X was right. I would also add that after 3 weeks we still know next to nothing, it can all change yet. I bring some examples only to highlight my point, there will be many others and many examples that actually did play out how you antipated, whether they were heavily favoured by the masses or not. "Watkins is a must own, hes in form from pre season, never looked sharper, fixtures are great" "Bournemouth are in trouble, they have sold their entire backline" "Chelsea have lost Colwill, they will be bad defensively" "Spurs were one of the worst defences last season, same players, wouldn't go near" "Forest just know how to keep CS, a defender is must own with those games" "Palace will struggle with those fixtures and will be vulnerable due to extra games in Europe" I could go on and on. These are just some of the narratives I saw spoken about in pre season. Again I am not saying eveyone felt that way, hell I'm not even saying any of these theories are wrong, they may yet go on to be true. What I do think is important is to have an awareness of some the crowd theories/noise but to abilty/skill to cut through some of the noise. It's far easier mentally to get wrapped up in theories than it is to use the tools and hard numbers in front of us, particularly if they appear counter to what you hearing (guess this depends what circles your musing in). People seem to forget that if the crowd believe something, much of that is captured in markets already. There is always a human desire to attach reason for outcomes, we dont like random, we like order. It's fun to do so and again why wouldn't you try? But the reality is that often, shit just happens. Despite all this, a bad pick can score well. A good pick can blank. How well the team is playing doesn't necessarily matter. We have variance not only in points but referee decisions/injuries you name it. A huge part of the skill in this game is the acknowledgement that luck plays a large part, the results dont always reflect the process. If it did, the game would be extremely easy. As I have come to learn, FPL is about putting yourself in a position to win more than you lose. Its impossible to win them all without huge amounts of luck. People will always be able point to individual cases on players and thats great if you had a theory and it worked out but the skill is not to kid yourself that you had god given foresight, for every one of these there are 100s of people who had similar convictions and got it wrong or a bad outcome. The only part we can control is the process behind the decision and that's where I'll continue to try to focus my attention and energy. ✌️ Happy/Sorry for you.

@LiveFPLnet Honestly, fplstatistics was never perfect either. People don't expect perfection. See it as you guide us to make risk based decisions. It's never an exact science. And you don't know whether someone in the game control has a manual override. You are awesome.

Thanks all for the support and sorry again Europe when you wake up that the model changed opinion very late. I am going to follow this recipe: 1- Not tweet much about price changes, the model is out there for everyone to see the current status for themselves 2- Even when many keep asking (which is the case every day), I will fight the temptation to tweet to inform all of what the current status is 3- I will remind people that the most accurate prediction is when all the data comes in, aka 15 minutes before change time, and that in any case, it shouldn't be treated as gospel 4- I will chill out and worry about other things, like the servers, costs and finishing mobile app 🤣 5- If anything, I should be proud that I built a free tool that is able to give objectively the best predictions in the market (thanks whatthef.pl for measuring it daily). So pleaaaaaase everyone, don't trust a prediction blindly. Good luck!

I admit that this is a shortcoming of the prediction model. It is not nice for people who sleep early to miss any abrupt late prediction change like that (which are rare thankfully). But honestly what can I do when I rely on data that comes from FPL every hour to run a few machine learning algorithms (which take time to "crunch the numbers" and reach the optimized values). Every time, based on the new data, the algorithms assign different probabilities to transfers from the whole day (and sometimes from the whole week!) and adjust the model's parameters. Long story short, I am not considering this late change as a "win" per se as I understand the site was saying tomorrow for almost the whole day, and I understand this was misleading but it really was the info at that moment. Honestly running price change predictions is starting to be not very healthy for me personally, as I worry too much about people making decisions based on a wrong prediction. It's the reason I have not done this earlier (LiveFPL started in 2018, and only created this model in 2024), I knew I would be stressed out. In a night where 4 out of 4 predicted rises happened exactly, and 32 out of 34 true falls were predicted, I shouldn't be that stressed out but I am. A kind reminder that LiveFPL is just one person, one exhausted person 😄

@GianniButtice I really like your content. It's also Ok for people to bring him in based on what they see in pre-season. It's not "knee-jerking". Just paying attention. Doesn't make it any less value to react to the info in front of you.

When you see my GW1 team and I have Reijnders in please don't say its a knee jerk from pre season. Sure the Palermo performance plays a part but I've him in and out of my team since launch and loved him for a long time. 🇳🇱🇮🇹

@FPLMate 2 Free Transfers per week building to max 4 over 2 weeks if unused.

If you could change one thing about Fantasy Premier League, what would it be? Do you think points scoring should be changed? Do you have a chip idea? Do you simply want better prizes? Let me know 👇🏼

@GianniButtice @FPLPlonker It's also true that right now you could be following loads of content creators who have played AM and if you haven't you are 30-40-50 pts down on them because of that chip. It's not a great comparison.

I think for most, mid GW ranks are bad for mental health. Too many obsess over it when loads of football (and their FPL players) are yet to play. Obvs some enjoy playing the game that way and thats totally fine but for me, I have a much better weekend when I don't check live fpl every 10 minutes!

I’m scared to look at my FPL score the same way I get scared to look at my bank account after a heavy night. #FPL

@LetsTalk_FPL *** A player will receive an additional one-game suspension on top of the automatic suspension for every additional red card received in the playing season

I might actually have to sell Bruno 😢 Missing 19 and then LIV (a). My Christmas has been well and truly ruined.

@sertalpbilal Going to keep checking in on both until some major accounts like football teams also publish there

Looks like there is a significant move from Twitter to Bluesky. Is anyone planning to stay here regardless? Or are you waiting for a critical mass to be reached before jumping the ship?

@fplblackbox_az And sometimes making changes / mixing it up is fun!

FPL X is pretty wild at the moment. “Salah is a must own, whatever the cost!” vs “you must be crazy to sell Haaland to get Salah!” “Calvert Lewin is trash get rid immediately” vs “he plays Southampton you’d be an idiot to sell!” “Cunha is the next Harry Kane buy him immediately” vs “Cunha is a bum he won’t score again” Outcome will obviously decide on who is right, but these aren’t as clear cut decisions as people make out. Making (or not making) these moves both have merit.

@FFScout_Mark @LetsTalk_FPL Thanks for the feedback.

Having a £4.5m defender dilemma so early in the season is properly 👎😆 If Quansah was my 5th defender I'd eat the price drop and hope that he gets back into the team soon. But with a *minor* risk over Porro in GW2 and Barco not playing GW1 there is a small chance I only have 2 defenders in GW2 and if Quansah drops I'm stuck with £4.0m defenders as my options to bring in. Even if Porro fit I'm playing Konsa vs Arsenal (h). I'm leaning towards removing Quansah but I definitely see a world where it ends up being a bad decision. Doesn't help that there isn't a huge amount of £4.5m defenders that will help my squad long term, albeit they are likely to be better than Quansah 😀

@fplblackbox_az @ZopharFPL You collect and use all sorts of information and then make a decision. For those that whinge, might as well start blaming Match of the Day analysis if you use that and it goes wrong. Everyone need to own their own decisions. You and Mark doing just fine. It's entertaining.

Thanks Zoph! To be fair it’s not been TOO bad and I can see why I got some stick due to how much I talked him up. Do resent the “arrogant” label some are attaching to me though, I have stronger opinions on Brighton (naturally) but I’ve never once thought my opinions are more valuable than others.

Quite disapppointed to see this, Content creators give their opinions, and it's what we are out here to see. Some will be wrong, some will be right. It's what he felt. He got it wrong. It happens. I don't see any need to apologise for it.

@nr147 The offside itself needs a "benefit of the doubt"%. I would much rather see that margin of offside have an element of favouring attackers.

The offside is more or less factual so you have to accept that and it’s a lot better than having a linesman make the call. But the handball was so harsh and not surprising it was the England VAR team not for the 1st time this tournament with a contentious call

@FFScout_Mark @CleanThing_ Yeah OK. Abuse a strong word. For anyone that watches Blackbox and sees your style they'd know there isn't any intent to hold info back. Disappointing the types of messages out there

LMAO. Have some shame.