Johnny Smithy

@SpaceInvestor_D In your opinion, are mainstream analyst price targets worth something? Feels like they never have more than the most superficial understanding of companies, and price target updates are reactive and based on hype.

$ASTS / $RKLB / $RDW The real analysts are the ones grinding day in, day out searching for alpha, not Wall Street pushing lagging price targets after a single print and a 60-minute earnings call. I've seen better research and sharper insights on this platform than I did during my years in the industry. Too many firms stopped seeking truth a long time ago. Now they mostly protect access, consensus, and reputation.

@roadto100bagger @daveginvesting Paper hands 😂

@daveginvesting I’ll trim at $500 $RKLB

There's nothing wrong with a little trimming at peaks.

@scotto2050 @RocketLab The launch itself won't, but I'm expecting it will signal peak Neutron spending. So what accounts for the increase EBITDA between Q2 and Q3, with +/- the same revenue? Better space components margins?

@JohnnyS91448 @RocketLab I'm assuming late Q3 or Q4 for that first Neutron launch, but it's worth noting that this first launch is an R&D launch, so it actually won't impact revenue/cost.

I'm calling it now. Rocket Lab will print their first quarter of Adjusted EBITDA profitability in 2026. Long $RKLB 🚀

@RLvideos2 @scotto2050 @RocketLab Q2 or Q3 2027 yeah. I'm hoping the launch will signal peak Neutron spending. So R&D spending should stabilize or decrease, and the next launch in 2027 will be for a paying customer.

@JohnnyS91448 @scotto2050 @RocketLab It would need to happen in Q2 or Q3 if Neutron launches in Q4, because that 1st launch is without a customer payload.

@mottbox_ @AlexfromBabylon No way it would have reached orbit, the rocket had lost one of its engines and 1-2 minutes of fuel. Kemp must have been desperate to salvage what little credibility Astra still had. 😅

@AlexfromBabylon x.com/kemp/status/18… 😂

$RKLB To be fair the Astra rocket does have some unique capabilities that I have never seen Electron do. 😁

@BellikOzan Assuming a cross-section area of 21 m2 (1/3 of max) and a drag coefficient of 1.0, you could go as low as 7 mN at a 400 km orbit, if you don't mind firing the thrusters at all times😁. I'm guessing that it isn't the design scenario tho.

Man, even at that point, it'd be >10x lower twr than Starlink v2 mini. 3x25mN for ~4t vs 170mN for .5-0.8t

@Robotbeat Genuine question: how does their landing method generate more NOx than the hoverslam? Since the orange smoke didn't appear until the flames were over the ship, I was expecting it to be caused by something burning on board, maybe the paint.

Disagree. Hoverslam is more efficient, has lower wear and tear on the rocket and landing ship (and the fish!), and you don’t get this orangish cloud from beating the nitrogen in the air into oxidizing.

@SpaceInvestor_D 2-3 high conviction plays and indexes as a hedge. As others said, sometimes less is more! Unless you are doing it as your full-time job, you don't have the time to really understand 10+ companies.

How many companies are in your portfolio? Personally, I prefer to stay focused with 4–5 high conviction positions.

@daveginvesting Maybe they need the funds right now.. 🤔

That was quick!

@BellikOzan @sandylogy I'm expecting it will become a problem in the next decades, as we figure out how combustion products behave high up, if high altitude plasma from reentry has any effects on the ozone layer, and launches/yr increase.

@BellikOzan @sandylogy Living in space, yes. But with current tech, that many Earth-space transits are not possible. You would be dumping 10x the amount of CO2/yr currently released every day. Part of it in the upper atm, where we do not fully understand the effects of H₂O & CO₂ (ozone & greenhouse).

If you had to choose between a crew of 4 going to Alpha Centauri and a billion people going to space, which would you choose and why?

@Gaurab Look up NalagX, there's a US$1 billion deal in the works for a new TNT plant in Canada. It's planned to start operations in 2029, however. connectcre.ca/stories/nalagx…

NATO just placed a $145 billion order for munitions. It's effectively a chemistry order. Nitro-Chem in Poland produces nearly all of NATO's (and America's) TNT at roughly 10,000 metric tons per year. Only two facilities in all of Europe synthesize advanced military explosives. 70% of the cotton linters needed for nitrocellulose propellant come from China. The same country that supplies Russia. Shell production across the alliance went up sixfold, but the chemistry to fill those shells did not. Most new energetics plants will not reach capacity until 2028. NATO wrote a $145 billion check to a non-existent industrial base.

@daveginvesting 373M$ in current assets, that gives them about one year of runway. 😬 That would normally mean dilution, but at a market cap of 190M$, I don't think it would help. They might actually go bankrupt in 2026.

I hate to say it but the march towards bankruptcy continues for $SPCE. I really hope that I am wrong for the sake of the shareholders and employees.

New 8-K filing from Rocket Lab: From now on, Peter Beck’s salary will be $1/yr, and he will receive neither stock nor annual bonuses. Basically, he’s working for free and will only make money by increasing the value of his existing shares. That’s commitment right there.😅

@Gaurab Tbh, semiconductor fabs will be the last ones to run out of helium. Recreational, scientific, and medical uses will run out or begin rationing He long before we stop chip fabs. Still sucks, of course, and it will most likely lead to higher chip prices.

The world's liquid helium depends on 16 plants. Building a new one takes 3 to 6 years. Why? Helium is different from most other gases. When extracted from natural gas, every other component freezes out during cryogenic processing. But above −228°C, the standard industrial method of expanding gas through a valve to cool it makes helium hotter, not colder. So liquefaction at −269°C requires turboexpanders spinning at up to 250,000 rpm. Getting helium to 99.9999% semiconductor grade means concentrating it 1,250 times, then purifying it through 7 stages across a 900-degree temperature range. The final stage uses zirconium alloy cartridges at 700°C to chemically bind impurities below 1 part per billion. The turboexpanders are built by less than five companies worldwide, the zirconium cartridges by even fewer. Lead times for either: 12 to 24 months. The US sold its strategic helium reserve in January 2024. Semiconductor fabs carry about one week of inventory.

@SpaceInvestor_D 1000 Rutherfords is the total amount, including previous years. Each Electron has 10 engines (9x 1st stage, 1x 2nd stage), and RKLB have launched 79 rockets before 2026. So it implies at least 21 launches in 2026, which is consistent with their low-end guidance for the year.

$RKLB: Rocket Lab targeting a total of 1,000 Rutherford engine launches before the end of 2026. The milestone underscores how central additive manufacturing has been to the company’s production strategy since its founding, and how that strategy is now being carried forward into its next-generation platform. The Rutherford engine is widely recognized as the first 3D printed, electric pump-fed orbital rocket engine, with primary components including the combustion chamber, injectors, pumps, and main propellant valves all produced additively. The ability to print those components rapidly and iterate quickly has been a key factor in reaching production volumes that few rocket programs have matched at this pace. Nine Rutherford engines power each Electron first stage, meaning the 800-engine figure represents nearly 90 individual launch vehicles’ worth of additively manufactured propulsion hardware.

@DJSnM Nice! Does the propulsion energy come solely from the electric arc, or is there any additional source (chemical reaction, phase change, etc)?

Solid state propulsion for cubesats - using electric arcs to vaporize solid metal propellant. Ideal for cubesats.

@trypto_tran Great news for Rocket Lab, let's hope the deal is concluded quickly now!

In which BI squashes their own rumor x.com/BIDeutschland/…

$RKLB "According to [Rheinmetall CEO] Papperger, Rheinmetall has not submitted a bid for Mynaric, a company specializing in laser communication, which is to be sold to the USA. However, the technology provided by Mynaric can still be used, Papperger added."