Jon Czin

POMP AND CIRCUMSTANCE, SIGNIFYING NOTHING. That's my Trump-Xi take... Few deals. No breakthroughs. But thankfully no US concessions on Taiwan or tech. Hard to call this summit a success, since it didn't really address any US-China structural problems. Yet not a disaster either.

What is the “constructive strategic stability” framework Beijing is now promoting for US-China relations? Despite the new branding, it largely repackages familiar PRC formulations — from the “new type of great power relations” to “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation.” Xi’s presentation makes clear that “constructive stability” is contingent on what Beijing sees as “concrete actions” by both sides. Notably, this is immediately paired with a warning that the United States must handle Taiwan with caution. The emphasis on “equal-footed consultation” is also significant, as Beijing will likely use that formulation to criticize what it views as future U.S. “unilateral actions.”

4/ I have heard speculation Trump could ask Xi for help on Iran and in return Xi could request Trump to make concessions on Taiwan. I don't expect this to happen. Doing so would violate Beijing's longstanding principle that Taiwan is "non-negotiable." It isn't how Beijing rolls.