Jonas

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Jonas

Jonas

@Jonovst

I post things I find interesting.

Trondheim Katılım Aralık 2024
363 Takip Edilen42 Takipçiler
Jonas retweetledi
Deedy
Deedy@deedydas·
defense tech is so freaking cool
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Jonas
Jonas@Jonovst·
@kingtutcap @GrumpierBTDay CEO probably converted debt at premium to show confidence going into the necessary $500m shelf. This doesn’t look like survival capital, looks more like growth capital necessary to keep up with demand.
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Tut C🅰️pital
Tut C🅰️pital@kingtutcap·
$VELO: My two cents. At first glance, freak out. At second glance, this was more or less telegraphed during the Q4 earnings. "This is a practical, demand-driven buildout: as contracts grow and new programs come online, each drives incremental capacity requirements, creating a compounding growth profile. To support this expansion, we expect to raise additional capital in the near term. Any equity capital raised would be targeted toward workforce expansion and operational infrastructure rather than equipment, keeping dilution low relative to the significant long-term value this growth is expected to generate." So ask yourself — why does a CEO who owns ~49% of the company, just converted debt to equity at a massive premium to market, and tied his comp to market cap, file a $500M shelf? The same CEO who tied his compensation plan to the company's market cap: x.com/kingtutcap/sta… The key word here is demand-driven. The shelf isn't dilution. It's authorization. You don't pull the trigger on a $500M shelf if you don't see massive demand coming at you. This is a company sitting at the intersection of a generational defense bottleneck with a $1.5T 2027 defense budget ask behind it. What happens when a $50-100M order lands and you don't have the capital to fulfill it? You lose the contract. People are still looking at the 5-year chart and seeing the old VELO. That company is gone. This is a defense-first hypergrowth turnaround with $59M in bookings, a CEO with massive skin in the game, and demand the company is struggling to keep up with. Look at the 10-K risk factors. The biggest one isn't competition. It isn't balance sheet. It's being unable to meet demand. They literally flagged that incoming defense orders around munitions replenishment, hypersonic propulsion, and thermal management systems could overwhelm their capacity. Think about what the DoD needs to replenish after Iran. Think about who makes the parts. Demand from defense, aerospace and government-related customers may increase, but we may be unable to timely and effectively satisfy such demand, and any failure to do so could expose us to operational, contractual, regulatory and reputational risks. As a supplier of metal additive manufacturing solutions used in defense, aerospace and other highly regulated industrial applications, we may experience increased demand for our products and services as government agencies, prime contractors and other participants in the defense industrial base seek to expand domestic manufacturing capacity, accelerate qualification of advanced components and support programs involving munitions and munition support components, hypersonic propulsion and thermal management systems, aerospace propulsion and other mission-critical applications. While increased participation in these markets create opportunities for growth, such demand may also place significant strain on our operations, including our production capacity, supply chain, engineering resources, installation and support capabilities, and our ability to satisfy stringent customer specifications, qualification requirements and delivery schedules. That shelf says we have access to capital markets if we need it, which changes the risk profile for the company for every stakeholder (customers, partners, and investors) removing the going concern discount that's keeping institutions out, making customers nervous about long-term contracts, and creating an existential risk premium that isn't justified by the actual demand picture. Capital access at improving prices, deployed into RPS capacity and defense contract execution, changes that narrative from survival to growth. Right now institutional ownership is effectively zero. Going concern language is a hard stop for most funds. Once the going concern question shifts from "will they survive" to "at what dilution will they grow," a whole category of institutional investors who couldn't touch this stock suddenly can. As I've said a couple weeks ago, dilution for growth purposes to meet structural demand + management that has massive skin in the game is okay to me! x.com/kingtutcap/sta… Most people will miss the forest for the trees. They'll focus on the chart and the shelf size and miss the fact that the demand pulling this company forward is structural, durable, and accelerating.
Tut C🅰️pital tweet media
Dilutracker@dilutracker

Dilution Alert: $VELO (MC: $249M) - Filed S-3 shelf for up to $500M in future offerings (common, preferred, debt, warrants, units), including ATM sales. - Aggregate outstanding warrants for 36,892 shares at avg $4,154.74/share, expiring Sep 29, 2026. - Public warrants (16,429 shares @ $6,037.50/share) and Private Placement warrants (8,477 shares @ $6,037.50/share), expiring Sep 29, 2026. Public warrants are conditionally redeemable.

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Nicolai Tangen
Nicolai Tangen@NicolaiTang1·
BOOK: loved 'Bonfire of the Murdoch's'. Have you got business or family issues? Probably not as much as these guys. Great read!
Nicolai Tangen tweet media
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Jonas
Jonas@Jonovst·
@ung_investor Synd med utsettelse, fattern og jeg satt klistra til skjermen
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Jonas retweetledi
Arun Jeldi
Arun Jeldi@AJeldi2·
The capacity build is not just a revenue builder , it’s next gen AI build for multiple data sets that transform manufacturing . Value doesn’t add with printers value add is software efficiency with every build for better designs and speed . In a siloed manufacturing world digitization and data for better alloys and designs makes a huge impact .
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Jonas
Jonas@Jonovst·
@trq212 Have been having some issues with scrolling in terminal with Claude Code. When Claude writes something and i try to scroll I get auto scrolled to the top of the chat.
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Yohan
Yohan@yohaniddawela·
One of the best use cases for geospatial data is examining environmental factors. Here's a list of my favourite geospatial environmental datasets:
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Jonas
Jonas@Jonovst·
@satofishi As a Norwegian it’s always baffled me that we have territory on the other side of the globe. Good luck on the journey, seems awesome
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Jonas
Jonas@Jonovst·
@worontzov This is super cool, interesting implementation
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Dmitriy Vorontzov
Dmitriy Vorontzov@worontzov·
I analyzed the satellite map using Nano Banana to create a forest cover mask. It's not perfect, but it can solve some problems.
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Jonas
Jonas@Jonovst·
@noegrs_research Agreed, I have a PT of $45. It’s an interesting case
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Noé
Noé@noegrs_research·
While everybody is talking about semicaps (and rightfully so), Cadeler $CDLR is up 40% YTD while still trading at a TTM P/E of 7. I think it will be a big winner this year.
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Jonas
Jonas@Jonovst·
@dokstrader Programvare som konverter finansrapporter i pdf format til markdown filer for å feede til LLM'er. Prøver å se hvor effektivt man kan få brukt Claude i Excel osv...
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Jonas
Jonas@Jonovst·
Claude congratulates itself on creating an excellent plan. #SelfLoveMatters
Jonas tweet media
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Jonas
Jonas@Jonovst·
@crux_capital_ Surely RPS revenue share will increase. Wasn’t it approximately 50% in Q3?
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Gaetano
Gaetano@crux_capital_·
Q4 Earnings are going to be a big deal $VELO I believe that a re-rate is in store I am watching a few main pieces for confirmation: 1 - Margin recovery. Management guided towards 30% margins for Q4 25. I believe the previous margins are a core reason that VELO didn't maintain its recent upward trend. 2 - Backlog. I want to see how the recent deals are boosting their backlog 3 - EBITDA positive progress. Management guided for this inflection point in the first half of 26. 4 - Revenue split. I would like to see RPS growing into a bigger piece of the overall revenue which would support higher margins and the financial turnaround
Gaetano@crux_capital_

$VELO (~$220 mkt cap) just secured a $11.5M multi-year production contract from a major U.S. defense contractor for critical national security components. A small-cap like this supplying high-performance 3D-printed parts to top defense programs, amid U.S. pushes for domestic manufacturing and secure supply chains stands out to me Some key bits: - $11.5M multi-year deal (Feb 2026) using Rapid Production Solution (RPS) for faster, cheaper complex parts vs traditional methods - Qualified as first additive manufacturing vendor for U.S. Army ground vehicles (GVSC program) - Backlog at $21.1M (as of Sep 2025, up from $15.9M end-Q2); full-year 2025 revenue guidance $50-60M (~30% growth) - Strong customer relationships: SpaceX operates ~25 machines for rocket engine parts (e.g., Raptor components), with expansion talks; Anduril as an active customer collaborating on programs/contracts - Shift to services/recurring production targeting higher margins (gross >30% in Q4 2025) - Positive analyst coverage, targets ~$18-25 implying upside - Defense/space sectors demand advanced tech for parts traditional manufacturing struggles with. Velo3D fits well. Of course the risks: - Cash low at ~$12M end-Q3 2025, leading to $30M funding round in Dec to extend runway - Ongoing losses and low margins in recent quarters from operational challenges - Stock is very volatile. Dipped sharply on the contract news despite the win All in all, contract wins and customer ties are real, path to profitability in early 2026 is likely, and sector demand strong. High reward if execution hits, but funding/execution risks real. This is in the early research stage for me. These are all the bits i've learned over the last few days and plugged into LLM to organize for a quick post. I'm sure there is a ton missing. Not financial advice, do your own research. I took a position today. Pages that I learned from: @VASTCNC @pennycheck @kingtutcap @BryanBerg2000 @TheCrypticWolf

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Jonas
Jonas@Jonovst·
Seeing some blame dilution for $VELO's recent struggles. Three raises, stock-split, and a debt swap in 2024. But the story changed in 2025 with @AJeldi2, the raises in 2025 were at $3 in August and $8.25 in December. 2024 was survival capital, 2025 is another story. Wait and see.
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Jonas
Jonas@Jonovst·
What is a soul and what determines whether you have one or not? - From a conversation with Claude
Jonas tweet media
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PolyAI
PolyAI@polyaivoice·
PolyAI has raised $200M from Nvidia, Khosla Ventures, and multiple top VCs. We're one of the fastest-growing companies in the UK, and we handle 500M+ calls for: • Marriott • PG&E • Gordon Ramsay's restaurants • And 3,000 more real deployments Which means that if you've ever called them, chances are you've talked to our voice agents. Every restaurant we onboard books thousands in revenue within 30 days. But how? Because PolyAI works 24/7, answering every call in <2 seconds, and we also: • switch between 45+ languages • handle payments & cancellations • verify identities • and even upsell your services If you want to try creating an agent with PolyAI, we built Agent Studio Lite to make it easy. Just enter any URL, and in 5 minutes it will analyze your website and build a working agent. We're opening early access to a limited number of people. Comment "PolyAI" and we'll add you to the waitlist and give you 3 months for free!
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Jonas
Jonas@Jonovst·
@IversAudun Når kommer Wickstrand Iversen Disruptive Shipping Opportunities?
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Jonas
Jonas@Jonovst·
@HanFarStockUp Spørs å se om de klarer å drive vekst noe videre da, de trader jo på en premium til konkurrenter. Men om den premiums ikke klarer å forsvares så er det stor fallhøyde. Derimot om etterspørselen etter sikkerhet og AI-tjenester øker og de får økt FTEs så er det jo høy oppside og
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Faruk Zdralovic
Faruk Zdralovic@HanFarStockUp·
Bouvet leverte svake tall i dag og sender altså aksjen ned i den største nedgangen på 10 år. Yielden er på godt over 6 %, value trap eller en no-brainer?
Faruk Zdralovic tweet media
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