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This is a summary of the main points in my new book, out today.
mercatus.org/publications/h…
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Kevin Erdmann
37.3K posts
Kevin Erdmann
@KAErdmann
I discovered a new framework for understanding the housing bubble, the financial crisis, and costly housing markets. See my substack link for ongoing analysis.
Gilbert, AZ Katılım Ağustos 2010
641 Takip Edilen9.2K Takipçiler
Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
🚨 WOWWW — UTAH — the brilliant young women @kevinolearytv 🤥 accused of being Chinese ops just discovered Utah speaker of the house Mike Schultz (Republican) bought 640 acres of land right next to the data center site just 2 months before it was announced.
Incredible find.
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@traderscrucible Here are home price trends in high- and low- tier Atlanta. In most of the country, there was no bubble. Just a big giant crash in working class housing prices. To this day, you can find economists asserting that the 2008-2012 trends in this chart were some sort of unwinding.
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@KAErdmann It was a cascade of “kinda” bad policies all around and then together it caused the banking crisis.
Nobody had any incentive to kill a deal and it caused a bubble
Note: I think that bubbles are necessary for growth ! I wish we had more !
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A nine year old memory on my Facebook feed today. I already knew it then, when hardly anyone had seen my research. And, unfortunately, there are now new contexts in which this is accurate.
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Where land has amenity or scarcity value, property taxes basically are Land Value taxes.
Property Taxes are Land Value Taxes, by @KAErdmann open.substack.com/pub/kevinerdma…
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@traderscrucible But, at the end of the day, everyone was to blame. Every policy was benchmarked to creating a crisis, and whenever policies were aimed at lessening the damage, the public got really angry about it. It happened because it was really popular.
2/2
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@traderscrucible The Fed aimed for a housing collapse and was too tight leading up to 2008, but I have slowly come around to centering the largely unnoticed and unappreciated tightening of lending standards at the federal mortgage agencies in 2008 as the cause of the crisis.
1/
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Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
When I'm president, the oval office will reflect my constituency. A millennial gray color scheme. LVP flooring. Minimalistic art. I am a man of the people.
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Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
Latest Census estimates show how much we have seen suburbanization (and exurbanization) across metropolitan areas in the last five years.
Remote work has been a big driver of this trend, while Seattle remains a bit of an exception.
Taylor Marr@TaylorAMarr
New 2025 Census Bureau population estimates for cities and towns show population growth farther from city centers, but not for every city. census.gov/library/storie…
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Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
So far as I can tell, every major complaint about data centers would apply equally to any heavy industrial or manufacturing facility. They use land. There is noise. They use water and electricity. There are some environmental effects.
But there are rarely widespread protests.
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When an economist claims that upzoning won't increase housing supply, see what they have to say about Auckland. If they claim that upzoning didn't help supply in Auckland, then just upzone and when we're building 2 million+ homes a year, let them say it didn't help.
M. Nolan Gray 🥑@mnolangray
Auckland is a go-to story for YIMBYs, and it's true—they built a lot and saw affordability improve. But the secret is that it was almost entirely a story of townhouses, many (most?) of them townhouses of the so-called "worst" variety that planners usually try to ban.
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Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
As in many areas of US city planning, we try to compensate for our failure to design/manage the public realm by micromanaging everything that happens in the private realm. If you want development to engage with the street, you need streets people actually want to engage with!
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Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
Auckland is a go-to story for YIMBYs, and it's true—they built a lot and saw affordability improve. But the secret is that it was almost entirely a story of townhouses, many (most?) of them townhouses of the so-called "worst" variety that planners usually try to ban.
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Stopping for a coffee with almond milk on my way to the data center protest.
Eric Boehm@EricBoehm87
oh no the data centers are going to use up all our water...
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@scottlincicome @vlhill1 Two very different types of places across this country have 2 things in common.
1) School enrollment is down by 50%.
2) The growth is unbearable to them.
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@scottlincicome @vlhill1 The horseshoe politics that unite rural and coastal metro NIMBYs would embarrass both of them to death if they had any way of noticing.
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Datacenter opposition is quickly joining fracking, GMOs, vaccines, the NWO, the Great Replacement, and other loony fringe beliefs that stagnationists, politicians, & grifters embrace AND that seriously harm the US & global economies. Not good.
Garry Tan@garrytan
Sanders and AOC introduced a bill to pause ALL AI data center construction. 300+ local bills filed. Half of planned 2026 data centers facing delays or cancellation. Each one brings billions to local economies. The people who say they want American jobs are trying to block the biggest job creation engine since the interstate highway system.
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Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
Please don't turn datacenters into the next Golden Rice kthxbye
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@real_jerseylee @mattyglesias NIMBYs aren't primarily motivated by property values.
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@KAErdmann @mattyglesias Then that should lead to reverse NIMBYism, where one is against any development outside of the neighbourhood, but for blanket upzoning within
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This is my take — upzoning Shaw and Logan Circle would massively *increase* the value of my house (because I own the land) even as it brings down the per unit price of housing.
Alex Armlovich@aarmlovi
New AGF blog: Tokyo is the world's most affordable megacity--and they're still permitting homes at many times the pace of NYC, London, Paris Yet land prices are still very high! A 1-acre suburban home in Chiyoda would cost over $100M before you nail the first board Tokyo shows structures can be affordable if you stack enough of them on pricey land. It also shows that YIMBYism will not crash land markets or impoverish land-rich homeowners in attractive areas Tokyo also heightens the contradictions of the profit-focused version of the Homevoter Hypothesis: In the highest-demand neighborhoods of the US, the homevoters prioritizing "Boomer suburb vibes" are not just hurting renters, they're costing *themselves* billions of dollars of land value
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Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
One of the most under-appreciated stories in health care
Ben Ippolito@ben_ippolito
“Since … 1960, no 14-year period has seen as slow growth of medical spending relative to GDP as was realized over the 2010-2024 time period.” Good news or nerve-racking depending on your perspective brookings.edu/articles/has-t…
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The girls in the video make a good point, which is that you shouldn't trust someone that goes on national TV wearing flip-flops.
Unfortunately they also use the phrase "hellscape of late-stage capitalism," and I also don't trust anyone that uses this meaningless phrase
Anonymous@YourAnonNews
Shark Tank Billionaire Kevin O'leary says 2 people fighting data centers in Utah are Chinese agents. Turns out its just 2 local girls in Utah, they make a hilarious video calling him the fuck out
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