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This is a summary of the main points in my new book, out today.
mercatus.org/publications/h…
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Kevin Erdmann
37.9K posts
Kevin Erdmann
@KAErdmann
I discovered a new framework for understanding the housing bubble, the financial crisis, and costly housing markets. See my substack link for ongoing analysis.
Gilbert, AZ Katılım Ağustos 2010
646 Takip Edilen9.2K Takipçiler
Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
So weird that this is normalized now. This would’ve been earth shattering years ago
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: President Trump tells oil companies to "get your retail oil prices down, now!"
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Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
A look into Austin's future as a densifying city.
This mixed-use project in one of Austin's most expensive neighborhoods is building 27 units at an avg of 2,100 sqft/unit. These are for grown, wealthy, adults who'd typically choose a SFH! A very positive signal for the future.
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Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
The left graph reflects deaths per structure fire since the IFC increased street widths for fire response to 26’.
The right reflects pedestrian & bicyclist deaths.
Wider streets did nothing for fire safety. But they showed strong results elsewhere as they became the norm in new streets and in redesigns of existing ones to let bigger apparatus drive faster to fewer fires and more auto crashes.
Jason,@jasonc_nc
In 1996 the allowed width of an urban street with curbside parking was 28’. Two lanes of travel, 18’ of clear width to setup an engine or ladder. ~2000 the NFPA began to engage in traffic engineering, creating a 20’ clear requirement. One way or not, doesn’t matter. 20’. Today it is a default of 26’ for an urban street or even a pull along fire lane, even if one way. 28+ is common for urban “arterials”. Over 30 years we increased the minimum width deemed “safe” for fire response by 44%. We mandated excess asphalt in every new urban street and development across the country, foregoing sidewalks and bike lanes for wider, faster access. We gained no statistical improvement in deaths per fire from this. We did gain significant increases in traffic and pedestrian deaths as these standards became ubiquitous in every new or “improved” urban street design.
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Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
In October 2024, the SF Board of Supervisors passed Aaron Peskin's bill to ban algorithmic pricing of apartments.
The BOS vote was 11-0.
Since then, rents in San Francisco are up 26%.
They think you're stupid.
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I think a big source of confusion on housing is that people think that since locational amenity value can make individual neighborhoods much more expensive, amenity value can make entire cities more expensive at the same scale.
It can't and doesn't.
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Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
You should write an essay about “thresholding”, because undesirable results like this are all over land use policy.
In Durham, for example, you have to build extremely expensive storm ponds for all projects, but projects with three or fewer homes are exempt. But you can’t afford a storm pond until you have 20 or more units.
Therefore, the city only gets 1-3 unit projects, and projects over 20 units (it’s rare to see projects 4-20 homes).
This single misguided policy eliminates virtually all missing middle-scaled housing, which happens to be the scale of housing affordability that is most easy to deliver.
Nobody—literally nobody—cares about this problem.
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Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
For some buildings in NYC, the minimum wage for construction labor is more than $70/hour?!?!?!?!
Basil🧡@LinkofSunshine
NYC ran an experiment: a separate minimum wage for construction workers on buildings above 99 units ($72.50 an hour) As a result, almost all construction has been scaled back to 99 units, and we’ve built significantly less housing
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@LoganMohtashami It’s also weird how nobody seems to notice that 90% of the mortgages went into default after the floating rates had declined sharply.
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Friends always want to tell me about their vacations to New York City, and I’m like, if you didn’t get cholera, you were at a Disneyland ride version. What suckers.
The Architect's Newspaper@archpaper
Dumpsters everywhere will be worse than the disease. Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced this week that the “containerization” rollout is slated to wrap by 2031. ow.ly/u3z150Zvc0C
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@FrankFuhrig 😮
Also amazing that piggly wiggly is the og. Many have come and gone.
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@KAErdmann 110 years ago, there was no store IN THE WORLD that let you wander the aisles putting stuff you wanted in a cart. The clerks did ALL that work.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-serv…
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It’s hilarious - sad really - that a lot of people are so bound up with hostility toward economic activity that they would give this stuff a minute’s attention.
The same stores that “steal your labor” at self-checkout will also pick it, check it, & take it to your car, for free.
Slazac 🇪🇺🇺🇦🇹🇼🌐@TrueSlazac
Someone with a PhD in economic sociology telling me with a straight face that self checkout saves companies the equivalent of 1% of the US GDP
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@dieworkwear isn't this impressive? The attention to detail. Look at the geometric symmetry here.
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@KAErdmann It's a form of brain rot and reflects an impoverished worldview. As someone on the center-left, it makes me want to jump off my balcony hearing people on my side of the aisle saying that.
Can we just have free markets + progressive taxation + a safety net?
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Anyone who attributes any important role to pricing software as a cause of inflated rents is not only wrong. They are letting you know that they are completely illegitimate thinkers on any matter that involves corporations and private business.
Jay Parsons@jayparsons
Never forget: San Francisco city council promised they addressed rent inflation in fall 2024 by banning algorithmic pricing, saying "we're taking action locally to ensure our working renters can afford to live here." Maybe it really is about supply and demand after all.
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Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
@anmhouston And also that they will blame problems on corporate power ideologically rather than empirically. In fact, their position will be immune to evidence or thoughtfulness.
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@KAErdmann What someone like that is saying is they want to do everything to reduce housing costs except the one thing that actually will make a big difference.
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Austin is a canonical housing supply success story!
In our odd era, yes, supply is what matters., by @KAErdmann open.substack.com/pub/kevinerdma…
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Kevin Erdmann retweetledi
Nice @RossBarkan piece! One note: Ending WWI rent regs in the 1920s went well only bc NYC permitted ~800k homes first
By contrast, Cambridge's 1995 decontrol was a wreck: Zoning banned net new supply so they got evictions & gut rehabs but no new homes 😬
thenation.com/article/politi…
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