Kevin Erdmann

This is a summary of the main points in my new book, out today. mercatus.org/publications/h…

Republicans get *tons* of stuff wrong. Tons. But they tend to govern better because they get the basics right. Most smart policy people are Democrats, but because Democrats get so many fundamental aspects of governance wrong, they're fighting a wicked uphill battle.

@ilovecokec17769 Cities have design review boards to make sure they look that way.

@KAErdmann can I just say the manufacturing apartments stuff is ugly? I think ive only seen 1 MAYBE 2 good looking ones. Do you have like a portfolio where I can look at real life designs? im legit curious.

YIMBYs think you can just throw water on everything, and everything will magically get fixed. It just doesn't work. We're going to need fiddling, and lots of it.

@mnolangray All over the Midwest there are cities where construction dropped 70% in 2008 and stayed there. Rents have now risen 25%+ on average, and new apartments that are proposed are just as “controversial” as they are in San Francisco. This country has a sickness.

"Zoning reform alone will not save the Rust Belt or other depopulated places, but it is nevertheless imperative for encouraging nascent revitalization efforts."

Well, we bought the building because it is next to our house, and we didn't want a developer to build another big glass condo tower that would loom over our house and block our awesome view of the Capitol of Texas. We have underpriced the rent so it would stay full, and so we could take care to have good tenants. We refurbished all the units after we bought it, and during the peak we kept it full at a decent rent. In the last couple of years, though, we have had to cut rents around 10% to keep it fully rented. We have a manager for the property who is pretty plugged into the market, and her anecdotal explanation for the pressure on rents corresponds with the thesis you describe - that nicer buildings have been cutting their rents, so it is harder to get good tenants in buildings like ours.

This terrific Pew writeup of Austin's experience, though, shows that it's not just true in theoretical models, but also validated by practical experience: pew.org/en/research-an…

This is shaping up as the most consistent finding in housing studies: Building lots of luxury housing can reduce rents at the top of the market—but the people it helps most are renters struggling to afford even the least desirable units

The fact that they'll do this in a time of emergency to curb prices tells you all you need to know about the Jones Act — It's a baseline tax on all American consumers. Abolish the Jones Act. Permanently.

@PHfloor Agreed. Canada has its own urban supply issues in some cities, but in 2008, US tried to make housing affordable by making prices low, which is like forcing down the price of farmland to make food affordable. The gap in supply relative to Canada since then ~15 million units.

@KAErdmann Seriously, America really ought to look at Canada's housing policies to get their things back in order.

Oof.

@ProfSchleich Sure, for normal papers, you have a point. But this is a MAJOR new paper. Big difference. /sarc

There is nothing sadder than journalists who write up one academic piece without even trying to understand the broader literature in which it sits (or in this case, stands out like a sore thumb).

Television was the most eagerly anticipated technology of the postwar years. But it faced a coordination problem: programs were needed to attract viewers, viewers to attract advertisers, and advertisers to fund programs. Americans, accustomed to free radio, had no appetite for anything resembling the BBC license fee. worksinprogress.co/issue/how-tv-l… The solution, as it turned out, was live sports. Television sports are easy to produce, as they come with their own venues and followings. While early televisions were too expensive for households, bars discovered that a single set could attract enormous custom. The desire to watch sports drove an extraordinary expansion in television sales. In doing so, it solved the coordination problem and probably started the television age. New at Works in Progress from @vpostrel.

@AzizSunderji @ramez @adam_tooze They improved from 50 years ago to 20 years ago. Subsequent 20 years has been a struggle at the bottom because of housing.

@KAErdmann @ramez @adam_tooze Have conditions for the bottom quintile improved or worsened over the past 50 years? I am thinking life expectancy, living conditions, etc. Genuinely asking, no pre-canned response ready to go...

Indoor living area per person has roughly tripled in the US since 1950.

@jdcmedlock @buildhomez I’m skeptical. The expensive coastal metros basically lose 1%+ of the lowest income quintiles each year and net out evenly in high quintiles. Intra-metro income variance is much more than regional so I don’t see how that could raise avg destination incomes

@KAErdmann @buildhomez The capital gains point may still be an issue in some edge cases, but the AGI info is on year 2 income so it shouldn't be a major issue. Definitely open to any other suggestions to improve this.

I'm endlessly frustrated with blue state governance, but this analysis is sloppy. Hanania spends a lot of time looking GDP change without ever looking at absolute levels of GDP. If red states have been growing faster for 40 years, why aren't they richer than blue states?

When Detroit was the epicenter of a “tech boom” its population soared, and industrialization drove mass prosperity. There’s been nothing like that with the Bay Area and the 21st century. slowboring.com/p/why-silicon-…

@ramez @AzizSunderji @adam_tooze I'd still push back on that narrative. Rent inflation has nearly stopped real income growth for the bottom income quintile for a decade. The housing problem has changed the "shared prosperity" story.

@KAErdmann @AzizSunderji @adam_tooze No disagreement here. Newly built homes are coming in slightly smaller. My post was not about the current housing market, but rather a broader comment on rising prosperity over the long run.

@AzizSunderji @ramez @adam_tooze You mean, the chart here? kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/a-shortage-o…

@KAErdmann @ramez @adam_tooze I was trying to give you an opportunity to repost your data specifically about square feet per capita 😂

@AzizSunderji @ramez @adam_tooze 7) I don't think the average unit in the cheapest ZIP codes has added 60% of space through renovations since 2015. The national average size since 1950 really has nothing to do with those tenants' struggles. 7/7

@AzizSunderji @ramez @adam_tooze 6) That likely is reflected in utilization. Rich families likely continue to increase square foot per person in line with growing real incomes while it stagnates or declines for poor families. 6/