Burns

@davidasinclair what about metformin?

One of the most interesting, least dangerous drugs for long-term health

@JoinLifespan what about metformin?

Acarbose is an alpha-glucosidase inhibitor prescription medicine that slows carbohydrate digestion. It increases median lifespan in mice around ~20% in males and smaller (~4–5%) in females New paper suggests its effects may not be by controlling sugar but by raising NAD! 🧵

@davidasinclair @LammingLab g.co/gemini/share/e…

@davidasinclair @LammingLab The study is a "warning light" for high-dose BCAA supplementation, not a definitive "road map" for human dieting. The study you shared from the Lamming Lab is a high-quality, peer-reviewed piece of research from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. However, when determining its

Why protein powders & shakes could be accelerating brain aging Great work @LammingLab🐁

@RyanDetrick Barron’s – August 21, 2006 Cover/feature: Often referenced under the headline “A Housing Crisis Approaches” (part of the article “The No-Money-Down Disaster”). 

If we thought investors were mad before, wonder what the AAII will do when stocks hit new highs next week? The widely hated bull market continues. Again, markets don't peak when you have magazine covers like this.

@RyanDetrick There were several before the housing crashed, although they were early which we could be now Before the 2000 dot-com crash Barron’s – March 20, 2000 Cover story: “Burning Up: Warning: Internet companies are running out of cash—fast” 

@ecommerceshares @michaeljburry argument that even after a company like Microsoft stops using the latest high-end chips and buys new ones, they resell those chips because they’re used much longer down the line for other companies and other companies and other uses so the chips have more than a three-year life

What exactly is the conclusion from the @michaeljburry GPU depreciation case? People will need to buy more (or less?) GPUs because they get older faster (or slower?) than current market expectations? What is his trade? I don’t get it.

@Techmeme @KenzieSigalos What did Anthropic actually earn this year? Their estimated revenue for 2025 (not profit) is in the range of: $3B–$4B in revenue and ≈ –$2B to –$5B in net losses (depending on compute costs)

Anthropic plans to spend $50B on a US infrastructure buildout, starting with data centers in Texas and New York in partnership with Fluidstack, opening in 2026 (@kenziesigalos / CNBC) cnbc.com/2025/11/12/ant… #a251112p23" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">techmeme.com/251112/p23#a25… 📫 Subscribe: techmeme.com/newsletter?fro…

@Techmeme @KenzieSigalos Financing for data centers, GPUs, and cloud capex is becoming more expensive and harder to obtain This is the opposite of what should be happening if this were a long, sustainable boom.

@Techmeme @KenzieSigalos Credit markets are telling the truth You mentioned credit spreads — and that is exactly the canary in the coal mine. AI-adjacent high-yield bonds have widened Credit default swaps (CDS) on tech infrastructure names have doubled in the last 3–6 months

@Techmeme @KenzieSigalos Meta pulling back Google more cautious Oracle stumbling Amazon questioning ROI

@Techmeme @KenzieSigalos The Anthropic $50B announcement is not backed by cash. The valuation is not supported by revenue. The credit market is flashing warnings. The capex cycle looks overextended.

@Techmeme @KenzieSigalos Assuming a generous 20% net margin (like a mature software company), they would need: Annual revenue = $18.3B ÷ 0.20 = $91.5 billion per year That would make Anthropic bigger than: Oracle ($50B revenue) Salesforce ($36B) Adobe ($20B) This is absurdly unrealistic right now

@Techmeme @KenzieSigalos Let’s break it down cleanly and realistically. 🔢 1. What does a $183 billion valuation imply? To justify a $183B valuation over 10 years, Anthropic would need to produce $18.3B per year in net profit (not revenue).

@DuganTommy16835 @TalkinYanks @OConnellNYDN Agreed Yankee fan here, I like humility until either NY team wins the WS, Lots of immaturity from both fan bases imho, It felt great for a day. Whats the goal Yankee fans. King for a day or King for a year, most of you may be to young to remember the real Kings of NY

@TalkinYanks @OConnellNYDN Yanks are 8-13 against the Mets since Cohen took over congrats on beating us for the first time in 2 years you don’t run shit

Yankees were blasting “I run New York” by 50 Cent in the clubhouse after last night’s win, per @OConnellNYDN

@TalkinYanks @OConnellNYDN Yankee fan here, be very careful. Its freaking May, The Mets are a really good team too. Celebrate in silence until the goal is and if it is attained, Lack of humilty in victory is a sign of fear. I love the Yanks but come on man

@Uber Why are you allow drivers to cancel right at the last minute after people are outside waiting and you can actually see the driver and then they cancel drivers canceled all the time and then you try to charge customers. What’s up with that poor service here in Costa Rica

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@snyyankees Yankee fan here, Ump let him cry. He needs to take notes from the Captain

Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been ejected for arguing balls and strikes

@#nfl @drewbrees @ScottHanson @netflix @NFL Merry Christmas NFL on Netflix Kevin from San Jose Costa Rica

@DanielTNiles Almost every post here is bullish doesn't that concern you?

Following $NVDA’s results today, I thought it might be worthwhile to re-examine the current AI landscape both short-term and longer-term. I wrote on July 11th, “I continue to believe there is a rising mismatch between the amount of capex spent on AI and the resulting revenues being generated… My plan is to be very conservative in my positioning the day the members of the Mag7 report while looking to add to my positions on corrections.” AI landscape today compared to the internet in the late 1990s: 1. During the internet infrastructure buildout, $CSCO revs increased ~15.5x over 6 years from the end of 1994, when Netscape Navigator (the first mass internet browser) was introduced, to its peak and Cisco’s stock rose ~4000%. 2. Nvidia, since the end of 2022 when OpenAI’s ChatGPT was introduced, has seen revenues go up “only” 5x over the past 7 quarters through today’s results with the stock up “only” 760%. So far the six Magnificent 7 names that already reported have declined 4% on average the day after reporting on generally disappointing guidance. Only $AAPL and $META both beat revs and EPS for Q2 and had forward revenue & EPS estimates go up as well. NVidia’s stock is also likely to decline tomorrow given it had the smallest rev/EPS beat of 4%/5% over the past 5 quarters with an even smaller increase relative to consensus for the next quarter. This increases the odds in my mind of a pending AI capex digestion phase at some point over the next six months. While industry hyperscaler capex is expected to be up ~50% in CY24, NVDA revs were up 262% y/y in CQ1:24 and up 122% y/y for CQ2. Customers have probably been ordering more GPUs than they need over the past 7 quarters given supply has severely lagged demand. As the CEOs of Google, Microsoft and Meta have all said recently, they view the greater risk to be underspending on AI versus overspending. What this means to me, is that when they decide to digest their historical spend now that supply is catching up with demand, much like following Covid, this may be a sharp correction. Deceleration to ~10% capex growth or worse next year would not surprise me. Following CQ2 results, forward revenue estimates went down at the three AI related hyperscalers: $MSFT, $AMZN and $GOOGL. These are three of the biggest customers for NVidia (in addition to Meta) and in 2022 digestion at these same customers occurred following the build out during Covid. As a result, Nvidia revenues declined 28% in six months while revenues went from up 53% year-over-year in CQ4:2021 to down 21% by CQ4:2022. The stock declined 66% from peak to trough during this slowdown. In summary, I continue to expect a digestion phase to start over the next six months (and a commensurate fall in the stock price) but then for the AI buildout to continue for the next several years. As a reminder, Cisco’ stock had intra-year declines of 26% in late ‘95, 38% in early ‘97; and 37% in late ‘98 as expectations of growth ebbed and flowed while the stock ultimately climbed ~4000% from the end of 1994 to its peak. I anticipate similar volatility for Nvidia over the next several years while both the revenues and stock double over that time as the AI buildout continues.