KJP

683 posts

KJP

KJP

@KJP417

My circle of incompetence is large.

Katılım Aralık 2021
480 Takip Edilen334 Takipçiler
KJP
KJP@KJP417·
@DeepSailCapital Isn't $400 what the provider receives, not what $SNWV receives? The provider then pays $SNWV for the applicator and keeps the rest. The issue is the providers are being paid too much in light of what they pay $SNWV for applicators and their actual time to treat.
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KJP@KJP417·
@DeepSailCapital Lower provider payments would hit demand, but is the "nominator" directly attacking SNWV's profitability, or is the nominator saying that wound care providers are being paid too much in light of what they pay SNWV (alleged 4x provider markup on kits) and actual treatment times?
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KJP
KJP@KJP417·
@CorpusCol @PhillyFanLife Mets' lineup has been putrid all year with injuries and many sub-.300 OBPs (Bichette, Semien, Vientos, Torrens) . . . and they've scored 11 more runs than the Phillies. Incredible how bad Turner, Bohm, Stott, Garcia, and Realmuto colletively have been (Crawford gets a pass)
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CorpusColossus
CorpusColossus@CorpusCol·
@PhillyFanLife 4-4 with no RBIs and no Runs scored. Everyone behind him is so useless that his main role is to force people to pitch to Harper.
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Life of a Philly Fan
Life of a Philly Fan@PhillyFanLife·
Brandon Marsh was 4-4 tonight His 8th career 4 hit night His average is up to .332 which is best in the NL This catch was pretty sick too
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KJP@KJP417·
$EXSR NIM expansion continues here as very low-yielding securities mature, higher interest borrowing gets paid off, and some loan growth. Still more to go on both borrowing payoff and low-yield securities maturing, so NIM expansion should continue. But need to watch credit.
KJP@KJP417

@Ron284Ron $EXSR Even without significant declines in long term rates, there should be alot of book value growth in the next few years from unwinding the AOCI losses in the securities portfolio. Assuming no big credit issues, the current share price could be 0.6x - 0.5x book in 2 years.

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KJP
KJP@KJP417·
$TRUX Based on the call report, continued great results. Bank-level net income up 36% y-o-y (helped by a small negative loan loss provision), with NII up 39% (loan growth + NIM expansion) and fiduciary (trust) income up 14%. Screening for TBV discounts will miss this gem.
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KJP@KJP417·
$PFSB Call report is out. Results continue to look good; no obvious credit issues. Expect buybacks at a nice discount to book to continue.
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KJP
KJP@KJP417·
@CambriaCreek I'm a long-timer holder, so hope you're correct. But what gives you confidence on ~35% incremental EBITDA margin on the next ~$13 million in revenue given EBITDA margin of ~9% in both 2019 and 2025, i.e., no SG&A leverage yet despite 2x sales (though less growth in real terms)
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Cambria Creek Investments
Cambria Creek Investments@CambriaCreek·
Currently ~8 TTM EV/EBITDA, but 20% growth next year gets you $75m - the same level as 22. That year they did 14m in EBITDA. Opex is about $5m higher today (but GM's are higher). Call it $10m NTM EBITDA on $45m EV. This is trading at 3-4 EV/EBITDA a few years out IMO for a company that has grown revenue at double digits for over a decade (not just a covid beneficiary). If you exclude neck braces they've gone from $4m in rev in 2012 to over $60m today - 23% revenue CAGR.
Cambria Creek Investments@CambriaCreek

Great results from $LEAT. Re-stocking is well underway, revenue up 43%

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Psyop Capital
Psyop Capital@psyopcapital·
$trux gets a lot of love on here (and rightly so), what are some other high quality otc banks with good underwriting culture and history of compounding earnings power at a respectable clip?
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KJP
KJP@KJP417·
@MackinacCap Are you concerned by metric creep here. From sessions to core sessions to off-platform views. Continually slicing differently to show growth on some metric when the whole pie isn’t really growing.
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MackinacCap
MackinacCap@MackinacCap·
$IAC "non session are the fastest growing segment". Does all the AI slop just drive all ad $ to recognizable brands via either off platform or ai overviews? Kind of surprised how well they are executing given all the hate on here.
MackinacCap tweet media
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KJP@KJP417·
@atelicinvest @thespencerwalsh IAC has managed to hang on so far. Biggest impact should be to digital revenue of People segment. But that is up through Q3 2025 (they report Q4 tonight), though "sessions" (i.e., page visits) are down. See page 4: ir.iac.com/static-files/c…
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Unemployed Capital Allocator
Unemployed Capital Allocator@atelicinvest·
@thespencerwalsh a ton of online media cos - too lazy to check numbers but I am sure every site that gets traffic from Google is impacted heavily by AI overview TRIP has a recent call where they talk about this in some depth. But IAC, ZD, NYT - smaller publishers - all impacted I am sure.
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KJP
KJP@KJP417·
$PFSB Earnings release not out yet, but call report looks fine. Steady earnings and no big credit issues. Buybacks should continue at a nice discount to book.
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KJP
KJP@KJP417·
@TreyHenninger Sounds like Truxton ($TRUX) and Thomasville ($THVB)
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Trey Henninger | DIYInvesting
Trey Henninger | DIYInvesting@TreyHenninger·
The ideal stock: 1. Pays a 2-4% dividend 2. Earns a profit every year 3. Grows earnings every year 4. EPS and Dividend growth rate exceed 10% per annum average over holding period 5. Requires maintenance due diligence of only 4 press releases a year. (Once per earnings report)
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KJP@KJP417·
And despite lobbying by CDFIs, the current bill does not include any date by which either last year's or this year's CDFI allocation must be spent. So last year's and this year's allocation may expire unused, and with them $8 - $10 million/year in CDFI grants to UBAB. 2/2
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KJP
KJP@KJP417·
$UBAB Perhaps some credit concerns popping up, and what is going to happen with the CDFI Fund? Congress rejected WH proposal and allocated $324 million in the recent compromise bill. But will the Trump Admin spend it? To date it has not spent last year's allocation. /1
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KJP@KJP417·
$THVB Growing loans by 15% and increasing an already high loan loss reserve % suggests a significant drag on y-o-y earnings due to significantly larger loss provision. Yet THVB still managed to grow earnings by 14% (20% PTPP). Impressive. And credit quality remains good.
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KJP@KJP417·
@ragingbullcap The 2026 slate as a whole looks good for $DBO, e.g., June has Masters of the Universe, Disclosure Day, Toy Story 5, and Supergirl, while July has Minions 3, Moana, The Odyssey, and Spider-Man. Those don't all of the DBOX appeal of Avengers, but I expect a big box office overall.
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Dylan Marrello
Dylan Marrello@ragingbullcap·
$DBO.TO A potentially huge opportunity coming up in Q4. Dune 3 and Avengers are both scheduled to open on the same weekend in December. Since Dune 3 has an exclusive three week window with $IMAX, Avengers will be forced to screen in other premium formats, meaning DBOX should be a huge draw for it. Industry experts widely expect Avengers to be the biggest box office draw this year and could exceed >$1.5B globally. 🤑 themovieblog.com/2026/01/dune-p…
Dylan Marrello@ragingbullcap

$DBO.TO back in the 70s is plain silly. 10x NTM EPS. Added some more.

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