Kimberly Miller

St. Pete Beach mothball mystery solved; two people charged including hotel owner palmbeachpost.com/story/news/env… via @pbpost

100 YEARS AGO TODAY the 1926 Nassau Hurricane was sweeping north along the Florida coast. Miami Beach and Fort Lauderdale took hits, and the storm was heading north. This hurricane is largely forgotten because of the devastating hurricane impact on Miami to come less than 2 months later. More at HurricaneIntel.com

100 YEARS AGO TODAY a Cat 4 hurricane was slammed into Nassau head on. It was the worst storm there in memory with widespread devastation. Winds increased in Miami Beach that afternoon. It was Mother Nature's opening salvo of the epic hurricane season of 1926 for Miami. More at HurricaneIntel.com

TROPICS UPDATE: While the Atlantic is on tropical snooze, the Pacific is busy. Hurricane #Fausto is heading toward #Hawaii. It will be a weak version when it reaches the state about Tuesday. The odds favor it tracking offshore just to the north of the islands, but it will be close. More at HurricaneIntel.com

TROPICS UPDATE: Disheveled Tropical Storm #Bertha is flexing it's muscle a bit, but the strong and hostile upper winds will increase, limiting intensification. Also, the worst weather will stay offshore. Still, water rise and dangerous surf are likely in the northern Gulf. More at HurrricaneIntel.com

As of this morning, DeepMind has now pretty much dropped the cluster that sends a hurricane towards Texas. It looks like TD2 will probably be a TS but stay fairly weak and move into the Mississippi Delta region.

A little more centralized convection with #TD2 this morning. I would imagine it'll get named soon. The storm is showing signs of dealing with NE shear, though, so I don't expect RI into a hurricane. Even the more aggressive models like HWRF are showing pretty significant vortex tilt and asymmetry thanks to that persistent NE shear. The shear direction also means that the rain should mostly be confined offshore until the center gets close to landfall, which will hopefully help lessen flooding impacts.

UPDATED TROPICS: @NHC_Atlantic has pulled the string on Tropical Depression TWO with watches issued for much of the Florida Panhandle. The system looks likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm #Bertha in the next day or two. The full revised update at HurricaneIntel.com

July 19: NHC Deputy Director Jamie Rhome provides the LIVE update on Tropical Depression Two from the National Hurricane Center: youtube.com/live/l2QZLj9jh… For more detailed forecasts and written text updates, visit: Hurricanes.gov

2 pm EDT July 18 - There is now a medium chance of a tropical depression forming over the Gulf of America. Here are the Key Messages about the system. Visit hurricanes.gov for updates.

We now have an invest area (#91L) in the Gulf. Some satellite observations so far today: 1. There is a bit of a double-barrelled look as two mid-level vorticity maxima appear (circled). This is the beginning of the expected "stretching out" process (see yesterday's post). 2. Surface rotation is more apparent today and confirmed by surface observations (circled), albeit still very weak relative to the mid-levels. 3. Convective (thunderstorm) coverage is muted so far, likely due to some dry air punching into the north side via #Georgia and northern #Florida. The preexisting environment was never impressively moist either. These signs don't point toward rapid development short-term, but the system nevertheless has a chance to become a tropical depression or storm over the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center has bumped those odds to 40% today.

For those opening their radar app and wondering why this thing isn't named, it's because it's a transient mid-level MCV (mesoscale convective vortex), not a surface spin. It'll take some time to erode the upper-level low sitting above before we see bona fide tropical development.

A psychologist answers why people are generally more afraid of sharks than alligators even if alligators may pose a bigger threat. And why do people take risks around gators? palmbeachpost.com/story/news/env… via @pbpost

Florida battling fast-spreading tiny pest that kills crops and grasses, including St. Augustine. palmbeachpost.com/story/news/env… via @pbpost

The models waffled but the National Hurricane Center has noted an area in the Gulf for possible development palmbeachpost.com/story/weather/… via @pbpost

Florida's hot Gulf waters are ripe for a hurricane but is that enough? The Internet has been chatting about a storm in the Gulf but experts say not so fast. palmbeachpost.com/story/weather/… via @pbpost

TROPICS UPDATE: Keeping a little eye on the northern Gulf in about a week. But nothing likely. And looking back 100 years to July 1926. Although the building boom of 1925 was faltering, Miami was having a good summer. But nobody could imagine what that hurricane season would bring starting later that July. More at HurricaneIntel.com

Four Florida alligator attacks in two weeks spark fear. Experts urge caution palmbeachpost.com/story/news/env… via @pbpost

Python tacos? Python pizza? 'Chicken of the Glades?' Florida considered making invasive snakes a food source. Then science stepped in. palmbeachpost.com/story/news/env…

Why Florida hunts pythons during the hottest days of summer palmbeachpost.com/story/news/env… via @pbpost