Dr. Levi Cowan

An emergency network maintenance action by my provider is currently blocking access to the Tropical Tidbits webpage, estimated to only last about 20 minutes (fingers crossed).

@RONCOULTER Not at all! Overall hurricane activity doesn't correlate strongly with the number of landfalls in a given year. You can simply never guarantee you won't get hit. Having your house prepared before the season starts is smart and advised.

@TropicalTidbits So I guess I put my shutters up today for nothing?

Looks like a flip from La Niña to El Niño is on the way this upcoming hurricane season. The equatorial Pacific thermocline has deepened over the last 2 months as upper ocean heat anomalies discharge eastward, which should eventually reverse the SST anomaly at the surface in the coming months. El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity through changes in average wind shear and convective instability. In recent years, the Atlantic has shown the potential to offset these negative impacts if its own water is warm enough to distort the base state (see 2023). For now, seasonal models don't foresee that this year, with an intense dipole in precipitation anomalies evident in the current NMME forecast for peak hurricane season, indicating a dominant El Niño pattern. A super active hurricane season would be unlikely if this forecast verifies, but that also wouldn't guarantee a small number of storms that strike land. As always, it's best to be prepared just in case every single hurricane season if you live in an area prone to hurricanes. This can include areas well inland, as we have unfortunately seen in the southeastern U.S. in recent years.

@mike45orlando That was the young version of Sam on bad teams ;)

@TropicalTidbits Your quarterback has 1 touchdown and 8 interceptions in his career against the Patriots.

Let's freaking go #Seahawks!! Run or throw, I don't care. Win this thing.

@PInstinctx The public Navy source for this data went down, unfortunately. No word yet on when/if it will be restored

@TropicalTidbits Hey Levi just a heads up - the NAVGEM model hasn't updated since late November. JMA since Jan 2nd. Latest from NAVGEM:

Let's go!! 'Hawks #1. Bye week doubles your probability of going all the way if you assume 50/50 odds in each playoff game. Huge.

@ReverendRambo And yet in the NFL, playoff teams coming off a bye win 70-75% of their matchups. Even after accounting for their higher seeding (thus presumably higher than 50/50 natural odds), this is a pretty good result.

@TropicalTidbits Food for thought: I find that bye weeks give teams too much time between games and makes them rusty and less likely to win. Take the CFP for example. The only team with a bye that didn't lose in the quarterfinals was #1 Indiana

@Keeegs2 Bears are a fun team this year

@TropicalTidbits Congrats Levi. I’d be for a Bears Hawks NFC Championship game

@Dwb231 Old division rivals!

@TropicalTidbits as much as I would like to say stay your lane DR Hurricane......this was surprise to see in my feed indeed....I am a D Broncos fan, so boo your Hawks...

Go Seahawks - that was certifiably insane.

An initial issue with AIGFS total accumulated precipitation plots has been fixed. Sorry about that!

The @NWSEMC released an AI version of the GFS model and its ensemble system, based on GraphCast. This is NOAA's first operational foray into the era of machine-learning based weather prediction. Plots for AIGFS are now available on Tropical Tidbits: tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/model… I will eventually integrate some AI-GEFS products as well. Read more about NOAA's new generation of AI models here: noaa.gov/news-release/n…

@DarSyd99 @NWS At some point yes, tough with the holidays right now though

@NWS @TropicalTidbits any chance to integrate into the Forecast Models section of your website?

Today, we're rolling out a new suite of AI-driven global weather models, including a "first of its kind" hybrid ensemble system! Want to get geeky with us? Come check it out: noaa.gov/news-release/n…

Salivating

Hurricane #Melissa is now racing northeastward, and will pass west of #Bermuda tonight. Max winds are estimated at 105 mph, and Melissa will likely remain a Cat 2 hurricane near Bermuda. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the island. By Friday night, Melissa will be transitioned into a mostly extratropical cyclone, skirting the coast of Newfoundland as it interacts with a frontal system in the region. A period of Tropical Storm force winds may occur there. Everyone in these areas please stay smart and safe as Melissa blows by.

Just terrible to see the aftermath of Hurricane #Melissa's strike on #Jamaica. I hope most residents found adequate shelter. Wishing the island a quick recovery and rebuild.

Hurricane #Melissa has crossed #Cuba and is accelerating northeastward as a weaker, but still dangerous hurricane. The storm's core has been broadened, and thus could affect a wider swath of locations today. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the central and southeastern #Bahamas, with a Tropical Storm Warning for the #TurksAndCaicos. Melissa will also pass near #Bermuda Thursday night, where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. Melissa is likely to be a Cat 2 hurricane at that time before becoming extratropical. Everyone please stay safe and smart today.

It's not always the east side. The side to the right of the storm's motion, whatever direction that happens to be, has the larger and stronger wind field generally (not always true in the eyewall itself though). In this case, westerly shear is also causing the east side to have a much more expansive field of heavy rainbands as well.

@TropicalTidbits I know that the east side of any hurricane is always the worst, but why is it more extreme with Melissa?

As Hurricane #Melissa reemerges over water north of #Jamaica, the next land area due to be impacted by the inner core is eastern #Cuba early tomorrow morning, which has already been receiving heavy rainfall. Although the NHC has set the current intensity of Melissa at 145mph, it should be stressed that we don't actually know with precision just how much passage over Jamaica's high terrain has weakened Melissa. We won't know until a new hurricane hunter aircraft samples the storm later this evening. Regardless of Melissa's exact intensity, it is likely to remain a major hurricane as it approaches eastern Cuba, bringing the full spectrum of life-threatening hazards, from storm surge to extreme winds and flash flooding / landslides. Everyone in the region please stay safe tonight and tomorrow.

It's not always the east side. The side to the right of the storm's motion in the northern hemisphere—whichever direction that happens to be—is typically larger and stronger (not always true in the eyewall itself though). In this case, westerly shear is also causing a more expansive field of heavy rainbands on the eastern side of Melissa.