Ken Kalk

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Ken Kalk

Ken Kalk

@KalkKen

Katılım Aralık 2021
444 Takip Edilen138 Takipçiler
Ken Kalk
Ken Kalk@KalkKen·
@LandoInvests @FreedomBirdo If your going to have a showcase example/ template then you have to utilize state of yhe art new technology !!!
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Lando
Lando@LandoInvests·
@FreedomBirdo To your second point I think it’ll be even better because $NVDA will most likely want VR to be showcased in their DGX blueprint for Sweetwater. While this is just speculation, I find it hard to believe $IREN will have problems getting VR. This is just the beginning 👀
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Lando
Lando@LandoInvests·
Been doing some research on $IREN and what the $NVDA DSX AI factory actually is... I think we’re too bearish guys. Will be writing something up here soon in the coming days
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Ken Kalk
Ken Kalk@KalkKen·
@jiahanjimliu Hut8 getting way more love from the market's..... lren doing all the heavy lifting and gets a muted response ......
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Jim Liu
Jim Liu@jiahanjimliu·
$IREN: First look at Q3 FY 2026 Earnings Quick note - why is IREN giving back all it's gains from $72 -> $60? 1. CRWV had bad cost numbers and whole Neocloud sector is following it's 10% dump. 2. Reason I explain in takeaway 3. Takeaway 1 - Nvidia Contract Economics Nvidia 3.4B/5-year 60MW GPU compute contract with IREN for internal research usage. - This is at 11.3m/MW which is 16% increase from 9.7m/MW MSFT contract. This is very meaningful top line increase given this is for air-cooled which means B300s. Much more profitable than MSFT contract and the topline IREN needs. Takeaway 2 - Why is IREN Expanding Slower than Expected Each GPU generation has greatly improve performance and economics. IREN has a "good" bias from the bitcoin mining days where it was a late move in order to have a fleet that was heavily skewed towards newer ASICs. Technology moves very very fast in the beginning and AI GPUs are still considered early, IREN is trying to time where most of it's fleet is mid-stage GPU aka Vera Rubin or newer. Hence it's SW1 buildout is pushed out to 2027 so that it will be all Vera Rubins. Yes, IREN is still scaling out it's DC buildout teams as this is all external and not contracted out like CRWV/NBIS. CRWV/NBIS for 2026/2027 capacity relies on 3rd parties and NBIS greenfield sites starts 2028. This is why IREN is full funded already for 2026 based on operational cashflow, existing cash on hand and has the Nvidia investment coming in later while NBIS still has 2026 funding needs even after the large convertible and Nvidia investment. Less aggressive but also less capital intensive. CRWV/NBIS is your investment if you want to expand as fast as possible. IREN cares about unit economics and having a VR200 and newer generation fleet. IREN selects customer based on ability to get financing at best interest rate and has better rate on their convertibles than both NBIS's convertible and CRWV's corporate. Given corporate debt is apple or oranges but 9% on CRWV is meaningful enough to compare to IREN's 0% and 1.5% converibles and 6% GPU debt financing. Takeaway 3 - Nvidia Option to Invest Instead of Immediate Investment Market sees this the reason to sell $IREN back down from $72 -> $60. Whereas $CRWV and $NBIS got the money immeidately for shares at market price because they have 2026 unfunded needs, $IREN is fully funded for 2026 and would rather sell at above the market price. The way to negotiate this is to have the shares sold in the future at a premium at which the negotiations happen. Nvidia negotiations were happening today, they were happening when IREN was in the 40s so 70 is a significant premium. YtD relatively IREN at 70 is equivalent to $NBIS issuing shares to NVDA at 140. IREN does not need the 2.1B in 2026, why dilute at $40? IREN will need cash in 2027 where it's buildout is going to accelerate so IREN is it then. The important part is getting priority on Nvidia's delivery schedule. Nvidia does benefit by having the right to buy IREN stock through 2031 at $70 but everyone, everyone is paying alot to secure HBM which is on-chip with the GPU. This $70 call option for Nvidia is good for 600k GPUs. Full Points - 3.7B 2026 ARR runrate and 3.1B ARR already contracted. This means the Mackenzie GPUs are contracted! All the Prince George GPUs are contracted. - New site in not only EU but APAC! Australia confirmed. - 2.6B cash on hand. People can stop talking about the ATM for current liabilities out now. ATM is for future growth/deals/acquisitions. - Will provide 3.4B of AI Cloud compute to Nvidia. Not counted in the 3.7B ARR so likely 2027. IREN is selling GPU compute to Nvidia internal teams! - IREN secures 600k GPUs of Nvidia GPUs as part of partnership. Nvidia has right to buy $IREN at $70 as it delivers the GPUs to IREN, full $2.1B investment option upon delivery of 600k GPUs. - 480MW by 2026, 1.21GW by 2027, 5GW by 2030. Nvidia GPU secured, power long secured, deals will come. - H1 handoff in Q3 CY 2026 is kind of disappointing. Handoff will likely be early Q3 as burn-in already happening now. H2-4 will be handed off by this year is the important part. There must have been some snag in H1. - Rest of Childress will be split among 100MW IT of liquid cooled H5-6 (likely extension for MSFT) and 250MW retrofit of air-cooled capacity. - @FransBakker9812 spot on - First SW1 200MW IT will be in 2027 and be for VR. - AI Revenue 33.6m is lower than expected as commissioning GPUs slower than expected. Will expect this to speed up as IREN ramps up their in-house team.
Jim Liu tweet mediaJim Liu tweet mediaJim Liu tweet media
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Ken Kalk
Ken Kalk@KalkKen·
@AJonesMines @Lazarus_Capital As soon as lren trades over $100 Nvidia will exercise the option to buy at $70 .....it shows where the shares are heading
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Lazarus
Lazarus@Lazarus_Capital·
This is that current value that $IREN is giving up: at a close of $57 that option was worth >$39 per share. At the AH price of $68, worth $48 per share. So, no. $NVDA is not investing $2.1B into $IREN. Maybe, if makes sense for them. Right now, $IREN gave up more than $1B in value. For what?
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Ken Kalk
Ken Kalk@KalkKen·
@McnallieM Very negative framed question ..... Once again l question your motives
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McNallie Money
McNallie Money@McnallieM·
Anyone trimming here??? 👀👀👀 $IREN
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XCap
XCap@XCapitalMgmt·
$IREN bear thesis progression on Sweetwater 1. Energization debate settled. Next debate (deal or no deal and on what terms) is for all the marbles.
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Queens Fort
Queens Fort@Bellyhungry·
@AJEnglish Sacrifice Spirit Airlines to make sure Iran does not get nuclear bomb?
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Al Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English@AJEnglish·
BREAKING: US air carrier Spirit Airlines says it is going out of business after 34 years and is ending operations immediately due to soaring jet fuel prices caused by the US-Israel war on Iran. 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/74eq2q
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McNallie Money
McNallie Money@McnallieM·
A thing of beauty... Enjoy the weekend @IREN_Ltd BULLS - next week will be wild!!! 👀👀👀 $IREN
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Paul Vella
Paul Vella@TheBigMan60·
@globeandmail Why is he not on the advisory committee? He has the contacts
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Brian Allen
Brian Allen@allenanalysis·
The mic cut out during O Canada at the Sabres game. Buffalo filled every single second of silence. Sang it word for word. This is how you tell your neighbors you see them. We love Canada. Don’t listen to the noise.
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Ken Kalk
Ken Kalk@KalkKen·
@McnallieM What a negative wuestion why aren't you asking if it will go above $50 ??? I see a pattern with your questions ...you must be a shorter
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McNallie Money
McNallie Money@McnallieM·
Do you think it will go under $40??? 🤔🤔🤔 $IREN
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WOLF
WOLF@WOLF_Financial·
This week will be Jerome Powell's last FOMC Press Conference as Chairman of the United States 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve
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Morgan J. Freeman
Morgan J. Freeman@mjfree·
Is he falling asleep in the Oval Office???
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Investing.com
Investing.com@Investingcom·
*PENTAGON MEMO FLOATS SPAIN-NATO SUSPENSION, PUNISHMENTS OVER IRAN RIFT 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇪🇸
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angela
angela@tribez1976·
@Bratt_world Mark carney is steadfast in his refusal to cooperate with our largest and irreplaceable neighbour.
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Investing.com
Investing.com@Investingcom·
*TRUMP: IRAN LOSING $500M/DAY FROM STRAIT CLOSURE *TRUMP: US LOSES “NOTHING” FROM HORMUZ DISRUPTION
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BornFree63
BornFree63@born_free63·
@AJEnglish And that's BEFORE the FIVE treasonous MPs crossed the floor!!!
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Al Jazeera English
Al Jazeera English@AJEnglish·
Canadian PM Mark Carney says that after decades of partnership with the US, close economic ties between the two countries have become a “weakness” that must be corrected. aje.news/7z2ril
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amit
amit@amitisinvesting·
FUTURES I don’t think anyone would’ve questioned a general 1% pullback after the rally we’ve had since March 30th, but the question now is if this becomes larger due to the escalation. I still think both sides want a deal and are having those last minute issues that always take place when trying to close a big deal, but markets will have to decide how much they believe a deal has a chance to take place… $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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Ken Kalk
Ken Kalk@KalkKen·
@mjfree Trump is raising anxiety levels throughout the world ...such a fuckin asshole !!!
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Morgan J. Freeman
Morgan J. Freeman@mjfree·
For the 2nd time Trump just threatened to blow up an entire country: “If Iran does not sign this deal, the whole country is getting blown up.” Remove this madman NOW before he burns the whole world down.
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Jon
Jon@whereisjonno·
@amitisinvesting Why did he not open up his blockade when Iran opened theirs? Seems counter productive does he want the off ramp or not
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amit
amit@amitisinvesting·
TRUMP: - THE US HAS JUST SHOT DOWN AN IRANIAN SHIP - US MARINES HAVE CUSTODY OF THE VESSEL oh boy
amit tweet media
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