Ken Tumin

Top 5 online savings accounts by APY as of 5/11/2026 & thread on online savings account (OSA) yields and how OSA & money market fund (MMF) yields have changed since the first Fed rate cut (9/18/2024): Top 5 Status: Elevault hikes rate by 52 bps and takes #2 spot Big 5 Status: No changes from last week.

On this day in 1929, the Federal Reserve Board in Washington rejected the New York Fed's request to raise the discount rate for the eighth time in three months. NY Fed Governor George Harrison wanted to make borrowed money expensive enough to cool the speculation. Washington refused. Brokers' loans had ballooned past $7 billion. Investors were putting down 10% and borrowing the other 90% at 6%, betting on 30% returns. A rate hike would have destroyed that math overnight. The Board finally gave in during August. New York got its rate increase to 6%. But by then, nine months of unchecked leverage had piled up. The market peaked September 3rd. By the end of October, the Dow was down over 30%. Every month the Fed sat on its hands was another month of leverage building in the system. The 1929 crash had a lot of causes, but the discount rate stalemate was the one regulators had direct control over and chose not to use.

@bank_reg One thing that probably helped their growth was to change names in 2022. Their old name was Congressional Bank.

The S-1 for this upcoming IPO was published last night. sec.gov/Archives/edgar… Lots of focus on telling a growth story (as you'd expect)

“an underrated aspect of Powell’s legacy is how he pivoted in key moments when there was evidence that the Fed needed to change course. As a result, the central bank under his leadership never caused a recession”

The S&P 500 has never been more concentrated in a single stock than it is today with Nvidia representing over 8% of the index.

@PeterMallouk NVDA has slightly lower concentrations in broader-based indexes as seen in the VTI and VT ETFs: VOO 7.85% VTI 6.63% VT 4.15% %’s as of 4/30/26

Stellantis gets FDIC’s ILC charter approval | @bankingdive “The charter will allow Stellantis Bank USA to offer automotive financing for vehicles, parts and accessories, as well as FDIC-insured online deposit accounts, on a national level” bankingdive.com/news/stellanti…

CIT Bank’s Platinum Savings Account is #10 on DQ's HYSA leaderboard. There are several noteworthy points about CIT Bank and its Platinum Savings Account. First, Platinum Savings Account is #10 due to a CIT Bank promo which gives the SA a 0.35% rate boost that’s guaranteed for 6 months. This results in a 4.10% APY for balances of at least $5,000 (0.60% for under $5,000). The current standard rate is 3.75% APY for $5,000+ (0.25% for under $5,000). This has remained in effect since Nov 2025. The Platinum Savings Account standard rate of 3.75% APY is competitive when compared to other major online banks like Ally (3.10% APY), AMEX (3.20% APY) and Marcus (3.50% APY). CIT Bank is a major online bank that has been offering online accounts since 2011. In 2015, it merged with and into OneWest Bank (OneWest formed as part of the government assisted merger of IndyMac in 2009.) From 2016 to 2018, CIT Bank expanded the number of savings and money market accounts. The primary reason for the new accounts seemed to be to attract new deposits into the new higher-rate accounts while inattentive existing customers remained in the old low-rate accounts. In 2019, CIT Bank launched a checking account, the eChecking, that didn't allow customers to write paper checks. In January 2022, CIT Bank was acquired by First Citizens Bank. Total assets of First Citizens increased from $58B to $108B. In March 2023, First Citizens acquired Silicon Valley Bride Bank. Its assets grew from $109B to $215B. CIT Bank launched its latest flagship savings account, the Platinum Savings, in March 2023. In July 2023, the Platinum Savings account APY reached its peak value of 5.05%. It was the first savings account from a major online bank to reach 5%. The APY dropped below 5% just before the Fed’s first rate cut in Sep 2024, but it has remained competitive. As of Dec 31, 2025, First Citizens Bank has $229B in assets, $162B in deposits and 518 branches. It’s now the 16th largest commercial bank in the U.S. based on assets. After more than four years since its acquisition of CIT Bank, First Citizens appears to be letting CIT Bank continue to be a competitive digital bank.

Dear Kevin Warsh Later today, you will be sworn in as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Congratulations. You got the job by convincing the President you share his vision that the Fed needs to cut rates. The problem is that today, on your first day as Chairman, the market is pricing in a 64% probability that rates will HIKE before the end of the year. Good luck!

How to Invest During Geopolitical Uncertainty | @Dull_Investing for @TheDailyUpside “Set an asset allocation target for equities and stick with it. Make sure you set it so you think you can stick with it, no matter what. Stocks will always be risky" thedailyupside.com/advisor/invest…

Jump in Inflation-Adjusted Treasury Yields Is a Threat to Stocks | @WSJ “Yields are rising not just because investors are ramping up their inflation expectations. So-called real yields are also moving sharply higher" wsj.com/livecoverage/s…

The Winklevoss twins, @BarrySilbert and other bitcoin OG's are buying up a different crypto. It's soaring in price -- but has serious dangers for society. NEW from me and @Vlajournaliste wsj.com/finance/curren…

As you can see from the yield curves of the top bank and credit union CDs, credit unions were the rate leaders for all terms. The top credit union CDs had the largest advantage for terms of 4 to 9 months. Two credit unions are offering 4.50% APY, which is 30 bps above the highest bank CD. The new one for this week is Signature Federal Credit Union with a 9-month term. ValorFI Heroes (digital-only division of Gesa Credit Union) continues to offer 4.50% APY on a 6-month term. Since 2015, Signature FCU of Alexandria, VA has been offering competitive deposit products, an online application and easy membership via the American Consumer Council. Unlike other VA credit unions (like PenFed, Langley and Northwest), Signature has remained small. Its total assets are $407 million (down from $461 million last year).

Diversification also minimized the downsides of holding stocks of companies like Kodak and Lucent.

FDIC Releases Staff Study of Deposit Flows at Three Failed Banks in Spring 2023 “In just three business days, SVB and SBNY lost half of their deposits while FRB lost just under half of its deposits”

Treasury auctions 5% long bond for first time since 2007 | @SeekingAlpha via @MSN "A massive $25B auction of new 30-year bonds on Wednesday was awarded at 5.046%, based on bidder yields." msn.com/en-us/money/ma…

The yield of the 2-year Treasury note has risen to 4% for the first time since last June as the odds of 2026 Fed rate cuts diminish. That appears to be impacting brokered CD rates. In today’s DQ survey of brokered CD rates, the top 2-year non-callable brokered CD rate increased to 4.05% at Fidelity, Vanguard and Schwab.

Here’s an entertaining variation of this trade: Kalshi markets are pricing a 27% chance that Trump will publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before July 2026. kalshi.com/markets/kxdjta… It seems like these odds should be higher. Even if Warsh votes for a rate cut at the June meeting, there’s no way he’ll get a majority to vote for a cut. The main question is how much of a honeymoon period will Trump give to Warsh.

FED HIKE ODDS RISE TO 35% Kalshi markets now price a 35% chance of a Fed rate hike before 2027, after weeks of mostly subdued expectations. The move follows hotter inflation data and renewed uncertainty over how long rates stay “higher for longer.” kalshi.com/markets/kxfedh…

Kevin Warsh is set to get confirmed as the next Fed chair on a day when the market* is strongly suggesting that the cutting cycle of 2024-25 is over. *(as an example, the 2-year note rising to a level last seen in June, when policy rates were 75 bps higher than they are today)

One of the notable developments this morning is the "dog that didn't bark": the lack of a significant bond market reaction to a scorching US PPI print. The move in government bond yields has been de minimis, as shown in the Bloomberg table below. This muted response may well stem from a combination of factors: a lingering "transitory" inflation narrative, mounting growth concerns, the potential for market intervention, or perhaps simple complacency. The one caveat is the continued gradual climb in the 10-year breakeven rate, which is around levels not seen in years (Bloomberg chart below). #economy #bonds #inflation #markets

PPI 🔥🔥🔥 PPI MoM: 1.4% vs 0.5% exp. PPI YoY: 6.0% vs 4.8% exp. Accelerating inflation trend…