Kevin

@AndrewDoPaco1 Thanks Andrew for the clarification!

@Kevin71465161 Go to Pinetree Capital’s investor relations page and check out their FY2025 MD&A. I provided a screenshot below:

Thoughts on $CMG.TO here given the stock has gone from $14/share to $4/share in less than 2 years Brought on a 35-year ex-Roper board member in Feb 2026 and Pinetree Capital $PNP.TO recently announced they put in 5% of their portfolio at ~$6/share. They’ve had 4 rough quarters of organic revenue declines, after a couple years of strong organic growth, and management is guiding for Q4 and next fiscal year to return to positive organic growth. Recently cut dividend to $0.01/quarter to focus on M&A and have announced a buyback program to take advantage of current prices. Seeing insider buying atm as well. Largest shareholder/ board member (Andrew Pastor) is also a board member at CSI. John Billowitz (ex-Vela CEO) and Mark Miller were previously on the board. Ex-Lumine $LMN.V CFO is on board of CMG. Current CFO was ex-CFO at Perseus and current head of M&A is ex-CSI $CSU.TO Have acquired 4 businesses in last 3 years (since they’ve announced they want to deploy their FCF on M&A and brought on the CSI crew). Consolidated multiple paid on the 4 acquisitions is ~1.5x sales (higher, when you look at NRR given they’ve bought some service heavy businesses). CEO gives 1-year updates on acquisitions and he claims the first 2 (Bluware and Sharp) are on track to hitting their IRR (not sure if we can verify this through public reports as they’ve consolidated the reporting of their acquisitions with core simulation business). Most recent 2 deals look to have been acquired at nice recurring revenue multiples. Stock is trading at 9.5x FY24 FCF, 12.2x FY25 FCF, and mid teens FY26E FCF depending on what they report in a couple of weeks (note: FCF has declined for each of the last 2 years). If the bottom is in with regard to FCF and organic growth, and FY27 is a nice rebound year, I think it’s really attractive here. Why do I think the bottom for FCF and organic growth is in in: 1) recent 4 quarters of organic declines has been a result of customer churn (lost a couple big customers), reduction in PS, and down sells as a result of macro in oil market. Oil prices have since rebounded to multi year highs (there is typically a 6-12 month lag into when that translates to IT budgets). A similar pattern occurred with the early 2022 rise in oil prices where CMG stock didn’t start rising significantly until Q4 2022, and then continuing into 2024 with strong organic growth prints (+12% in FY23 and +19% in FY24). Company has also tightened their customer renewal process and secured some nice customer wins recently. 2) After 20 years of developing CoFlow without commercialization and burning a bunch of money, they have financially reached commercial success with Shell and the ARR from their multi year contract will be coming online in Q4 2025 (hence, why i believe they are guiding for positive organic growth in Q4 and next year, despite the continued impact from the large customer who churned in Q1). 3) really easy comps for FY 27 as organic growth for FY26 will likely come in at negative mid to high single digits. 4) all 4 acquisitions that they’ve made are sub scale from a margin perspective and as CMG works through integration, you should see that flow through to the bottom line which is why I believe profitability will grow much faster than organic growth in coming quarters. Summary: You’re buying a company for a mid teens FCF multiple (on an already distressed FCF base), that should grow sales double digits in FY27 with strong margin flow through from acquisitions as their margin profiles mature. If they can successfully deploy capital at a 15% ROIC and deploy ~80% of FCF going forward, they should be able to grow FCF at a low double digits clip moving forward + organic growth (CEO is targeting an average of 10% organic growth per year over the long term - seems very aggressive… but I think the investment case works at these prices with 0% organic growth).

@realroseceline Any opinion about serial acquirers (e.g CSU etc)? I reckon you are not so keen on such businesses

Let’s play ask me anything, GO! 🌹

@QCompounding Send

If you read one thing today, make it this valuation guide The 104-paged PDF teaches you everything you should know Do you want to receive it? 1. Like this post 2. Comment "send" below 3. Get immediate access

@DaBao_ Yea you're right. Moutai is the clear market leader in the baijiu space. Only issue I have with it is the valuation though. Expensive imo =(

@Kevin71465161 Not an expert. Only consumed 1 baijiu before and that's Wuliangye. But why not just go with Moutai? People drink it to signal status anyway and you might as well pick the most prestigious brand

SOTP don't work in Asia but here is one for you: A pre-revenue drug co 6696:TPEX Lin Bioscience(mkt cap $USD 225M) owns 55.9% of BLTE:NASDAQ Belite Bio(mkt cap $USD 1.43B). Simple math tells you it's worth ~$800M. If you are looking for obvious value this might be a good start.

@DaBao_ @ObscurValuation When price of stock immediately drops >20% after ex dividend date

@ObscurValuation tell me you invest in HK without telling me you invest in HK

@MikeFritzell $1586HK China Leon Inspection Holding

Ask Me Anything (about stocks) Say a stock and I'll reply with a 280-character tweet my impression of it. Not investment advice.

@smartkarma Keen to know. Thanks! 😁

Would you be happy to pay 11xPE for this monopoly in Vietnam that pays out a 10pc dividend, has an 80pc gross margin, 70pc net margin, 40pc plus ROIC and more than a quarter of market cap in cash. Oh, and this not a high tech company. It’s an age old services business that’s nearly 100pc correlated to Vietnam’s growth in manufacturing and trade. Reply below if you’re keen to know the name.

@dede_eyesan Hi! Been following your content for awhile & thx for sharing your knowledge with us. With regards to Zengame, there has been a decline in their MAU as they increase prices for the products in their mahjong game over the years. Was wondering if you have any concerns about this?

For accountability, performance of 2023 stock picks: Zengame +238% Huisen Household -49% Bosideng -7% Reitmans +10% Biem.L.F.dlkk +18% Kaspi +31% Evolution AB +14% Equally weighted average of +36% Looking back, I’d have invested in all again except Huisen, (avoid frauds) 1/2

@MikeFritzell Hi Mike! Thx for your content which has been very informative & useful. I would like to check if there is a similar handbook for hong kong/korea listed stocks. Tried searching online but came up empty =( Thx!

This Sunday at 12.00pm Singapore time I'll publish a deep dive on one of the stocks in the handbook. I haven't yet decided which. Will be live tweeting throughout the process.

@DaBao_ I would like to check if you are able 2 verify if the company is legit. The caring award 16/17 & the 2 iso awards posted on their website seem to be bogus. I went thru the caring 16/17 awards list & didnt find the company. The iso awards cannot be verified on the aci website too

$8476.hk Ocean One Holding -A HK seafood importer -Market cap $HKD 210M -Customers are frozen seafood distributors/resellers/catering service providers Let's get some ugly stuff out of the way: -It's a HK nanocap -Listing on GEM -Very low liquidity

@SteadyCompound Munger

I have transcribed the latest Charlie Munger 2.5 hours Daily Journal Annual Shareholder Meeting. If you like a copy of the transcript, reply "Munger" and I'll drop you the link.