Behind the Buy

@Gubben89 Agree, I have it a mid teens IRR in my base case at these prices. Remember Berkshire was buying in the low 300’s and they are looking to underwrite at least a 10% IRR

$POOL could be a good long term play from here?

@3Plantey2 Hard to argue with 4x FCF and growing… not sure if any stock can compete with that lol

I bet $ccld > $cmg.to I honestly don't get why you'd buy cmg over ccld: -Positive vs negative growth -4x fcf vs 12x -Proven CEO vs garbage CEO -Improving margins vs worsening margins -High vs low roic

@CSUnerd Very fair. With that said, customer concentration works both ways. The new Shell CoFlow contract was a big one and CoFlow is their stickiest product.

@AndrewDoPaco1 Ya I wouldn't bet the account this one either. Competitors can bundle away their business and its higher customer concentration than most other industries.

$CMG.TO I want everyone to unfollow me if Computer Modelling Group doesn’t outperform the $SPY over the next 2 years… CMG trades at 12-15x 2026E FCF (which is a depressed FCF base), with 4 quarters of organic decline almost certainly ending in Q4 FY26 due to YoY weak comps, Sharp acquisition moving to organic, and the Shell CoFlow ARR contribution. Pramod has assembled a credible $CSU.TO trained team that has executed 5 acquisitions at blended ~1.5x revenue. Even at 3% sustained organic and 13% ROIC at a 75% reinvestment rate, the math delivers a 14% IRR. Multiple re-rating to normalized levels for that growth (18-20x FCF) on top of that gets you to 18-20% IRR over 3-4 years. This quarter is a big one… they need to show positive organic growth and guide to it continuing.

@3Plantey2 That’s fair, we will see. Check out my previous post for the rationale behind my conviction.

@AndrewDoPaco1 14x can quickly become 5x and then 1x if the growth is negative. I wouldn't bet my account on it haha

@NicoperJES How do you know cost basis? In the MD&A, I just see that they built a position in Q1 with a fair market value of just over $4M on March 31. Couldn’t find their book cost…

Pinetree $PNP.TO bought some unknown Netherlands VMS company a few months ago, right about at Topicus today's price. 🍀 As close to a buyback you get with Leonards.

@Kevin71465161 Go to Pinetree Capital’s investor relations page and check out their FY2025 MD&A. I provided a screenshot below:

@AndrewDoPaco1 Hi! Would like to check on where you obtained the info of Pinetree's 5% purchase of CMG shares. Reason for asking is because I couldnt find any such news on their investor relations platform. Thanks for your help in advance!

Thoughts on $CMG.TO here given the stock has gone from $14/share to $4/share in less than 2 years Brought on a 35-year ex-Roper board member in Feb 2026 and Pinetree Capital $PNP.TO recently announced they put in 5% of their portfolio at ~$6/share. They’ve had 4 rough quarters of organic revenue declines, after a couple years of strong organic growth, and management is guiding for Q4 and next fiscal year to return to positive organic growth. Recently cut dividend to $0.01/quarter to focus on M&A and have announced a buyback program to take advantage of current prices. Seeing insider buying atm as well. Largest shareholder/ board member (Andrew Pastor) is also a board member at CSI. John Billowitz (ex-Vela CEO) and Mark Miller were previously on the board. Ex-Lumine $LMN.V CFO is on board of CMG. Current CFO was ex-CFO at Perseus and current head of M&A is ex-CSI $CSU.TO Have acquired 4 businesses in last 3 years (since they’ve announced they want to deploy their FCF on M&A and brought on the CSI crew). Consolidated multiple paid on the 4 acquisitions is ~1.5x sales (higher, when you look at NRR given they’ve bought some service heavy businesses). CEO gives 1-year updates on acquisitions and he claims the first 2 (Bluware and Sharp) are on track to hitting their IRR (not sure if we can verify this through public reports as they’ve consolidated the reporting of their acquisitions with core simulation business). Most recent 2 deals look to have been acquired at nice recurring revenue multiples. Stock is trading at 9.5x FY24 FCF, 12.2x FY25 FCF, and mid teens FY26E FCF depending on what they report in a couple of weeks (note: FCF has declined for each of the last 2 years). If the bottom is in with regard to FCF and organic growth, and FY27 is a nice rebound year, I think it’s really attractive here. Why do I think the bottom for FCF and organic growth is in in: 1) recent 4 quarters of organic declines has been a result of customer churn (lost a couple big customers), reduction in PS, and down sells as a result of macro in oil market. Oil prices have since rebounded to multi year highs (there is typically a 6-12 month lag into when that translates to IT budgets). A similar pattern occurred with the early 2022 rise in oil prices where CMG stock didn’t start rising significantly until Q4 2022, and then continuing into 2024 with strong organic growth prints (+12% in FY23 and +19% in FY24). Company has also tightened their customer renewal process and secured some nice customer wins recently. 2) After 20 years of developing CoFlow without commercialization and burning a bunch of money, they have financially reached commercial success with Shell and the ARR from their multi year contract will be coming online in Q4 2025 (hence, why i believe they are guiding for positive organic growth in Q4 and next year, despite the continued impact from the large customer who churned in Q1). 3) really easy comps for FY 27 as organic growth for FY26 will likely come in at negative mid to high single digits. 4) all 4 acquisitions that they’ve made are sub scale from a margin perspective and as CMG works through integration, you should see that flow through to the bottom line which is why I believe profitability will grow much faster than organic growth in coming quarters. Summary: You’re buying a company for a mid teens FCF multiple (on an already distressed FCF base), that should grow sales double digits in FY27 with strong margin flow through from acquisitions as their margin profiles mature. If they can successfully deploy capital at a 15% ROIC and deploy ~80% of FCF going forward, they should be able to grow FCF at a low double digits clip moving forward + organic growth (CEO is targeting an average of 10% organic growth per year over the long term - seems very aggressive… but I think the investment case works at these prices with 0% organic growth).

@JerryCap 😂😂

I'm never going to make money again

IKS Holding on potential Trubridge $TBRG acquisition. It would be hard for them to disclose anything else.

Jhunjhunwalas-backed IKS healthcare looks to acquire $TBRG for $600 million

@Take_my_monnie With 150 million net debt and 14.5 million shares, it implies 31 per share as a price 🍀

Breakdown of non-cash add backs (which ones would you keep subtracted?)👇 D&A (acq intangibles): $12.2M D&A (capitalized software): $13.0M Depreciation: $1.1M Contingent consideration (Viewgol): $5.0M Credit loss provisions: $3.0M Debt issuance amort: $0.5M Non-cash lease costs: $1.1M Debt extinguishment loss: $0.3M

$TBRG 2025 year in review👇 Owner Earnings (excluding one-time severance): GAAP Net Income: $4.4M •Non-cash add-backs: $36.2M − Non-cash gains: ($0.2M) − Maintenance CapEx (also incl. capitalized software): ($18.2M) •After-tax severance add-back: $10.2M Owner Earnings: ~$32M ROIC on total invested capital (incl. goodwill): ’23: 4.5% → ’24: 7.1% → ’25: 10.2% Crossing cost of capital for the first time in 3 years. Mkt cap: ~$270M (EV: $~410M) Owner earnings yield: ~11.85% 2026 guide: modest revenue growth and a couple hundred basis points of EBITDA margin expansion. $347M rev (grew 1.4%) · 94% recurring · strategic review underway

@NicoperJES Right, I was referring more to a PE shop

@AndrewDoPaco1 I don't know really. It almost certainly won't be CSI if that's what you meant.

My bet is Trubridge will be acquired in next 18 months $TBRG

@PronkDaniel Market cap - (investments + cash) is not a very useful formula if you don’t add back the debt.

What are everyone's thoughts on $BRK here? It's got $373B of cash, $270B of investments, produces $46B in cash flow annually, and is at a $1.02T market cap. Market cap - (investments + cash) = $377B

@BerkelKip Interesting. Nice find.

Another issue with coming public in the US: seems to cost ~$2M/yr minimum just to be public. This is from $PARK, a recent IPO (and at ~$70M market cap is almost a 3% drag in value every year)