Kevin🇭🇰

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Kevin🇭🇰

Kevin🇭🇰

@Kevin_Ascendex

BD Director @AscendEX_ (Ex-BitMax| 7+Yrs,10M+ Users) Daily Market Insights&Listing Svcs 6y verified Web3 degen&BullBear vet Building the future of web3&Connects

HongKong Katılım Temmuz 2021
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Kevin🇭🇰
Kevin🇭🇰@Kevin_Ascendex·
大家好,我是 Kevin,一个在市场里摸爬滚打了 6 年的老韭菜。 Hello everyone, I’m Kevin, a 6-year market veteran who has been through it all. 经历过两轮牛熊,我见过太多不同的结局: Having gone through two full bull and bear cycles, I’ve seen many different endings: 有人已经财富自由,有人却负债离场; Some have achieved financial freedom, while others left in debt; 有人选择退圈,有人仍在坚持前行。 Some chose to exit, while others continue pushing forward. 有人离开,是因为已经赢了这场游戏; Some left because they already won the game; 也有人离开,是不想再被市场反复折腾。 Others left because they no longer wanted to be shaken by the market. 留下来的人,有的在享受趋势红利,有的还在等待翻身的机会。 Those who stay are either enjoying the trend or still waiting for a comeback. 市场从来都是残酷的。 The market has always been ruthless. 能留下来的人,都是被反复“教育”过之后,才站稳的。 Those who remain have all been “taught lessons” by the market again and again. 所以,坚持的人值得尊敬; So those who persist deserve respect; 离开的人,也希望在新的赛道一切顺利。 And those who leave—I wish them success in their new path. 过去我很少在推特分享,在新的一轮周期里,想把自己的观察和思考记录下来。 In the past, I rarely shared on Twitter, but in this new cycle, I want to document my thoughts and observations. 如果你觉得有价值,欢迎点赞、关注、评论,一起走过这一轮周期。 If you find this valuable, feel free to like, follow, and comment—let’s go through this cycle together.
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周大侠
周大侠@youngerbest·
我把评论我推文的蓝v都点关注了, 小博主做推特比较难的, 希望能帮到你们。
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Kevin🇭🇰
Kevin🇭🇰@Kevin_Ascendex·
🌙 Kevin’s Web3 Diary | Evening News | April 28, 2026 Tuesday Core Tone: A "low-volume pullback" amid the clamor of the LA Conference. While the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Los Angeles reaches its climax, the market is staging a classic "sell the news" correction. BTC has dipped below the $77k psychological level, with the Fear & Greed Index plunging 14 points in a single day. This is not a collapse of consensus, but a defensive reallocation by investors ahead of the Fed's decision, factoring in "re-inflation" risks and geopolitical stalemates. 1️⃣ 📊 Market Panorama: Technical Retracement After Sharp Drop in Risk Appetite ⒈ BTC [$76,574 | -1.03%]⑴ Support Transition: BTC lost the critical $78k level today, hitting a local low near $76,000. It is currently testing the support strength of the previous breakout point at $76k; the low-volume pullback suggests that major players have not exited in bulk. ⑵ Dominance Stability: BTC dominance remains firm at 57%. Although the price retraced, altcoins suffered deeper losses, cementing Bitcoin as the ultimate safe haven for remaining market liquidity. ⒉ ETH & SOL [Under Simultaneous Pressure]⑴ ETH ($2,284 | -0.84%): Dragged down by ETF net outflows (approx. $50M), ETH fell below $2,300 again. The market still needs time to digest post-Glamsterdam upgrade selling pressure. ⑵ SOL ($83.75 | -1.25%): Lost the $85 handle. Despite extensive discussions on Solana’s scalability at the LA conference, the secondary market is clearly suffering from liquidity drain. ⒊ Macro Environment (Real-time Monitoring)⑴ Equities’ "Scary" New Highs: The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 7,173.91 (+0.12%); the Nasdaq at 24,887 (+0.20%). While indices rose slightly, the median market performance remains weak. ⑵ Commodity Warnings: WTI Crude surged to $99.70 (+3.46%), nearing the $100 milestone; Gold sits at $4,627.50. The VIX reached 18.39, indicating that risk aversion is brewing beneath the surface. 2️⃣ 🔍 Capital & Positioning: End of the 9-Day Streak? ETF Profit-Taking ⒈ Institutional: Inflow Record Faces Challenges⑴ Outflow Concerns: Preliminary data suggests a softening in US spot ETF inflows. After the record-breaking 9-day streak (totaling $2.12B), some institutional players chose to take profits above $78k. ⑵ Cumulative Scale: Total net inflows remain anchored near $58.2B. Analysts view this as a healthy "stair-step" accumulation phase rather than a trend reversal. ⒉ Derivatives: Rise of Shorts Attempting a "Sneak Attack"⑴ Funding Signals: BTC funding rates on some platforms dropped to +0.0001%, with brief flips into negative territory. This suggests that long leverage has been largely flushed, giving room for bears to gamble. ⑵ Fear & Greed Index: Crashed from 47 yesterday to 33 (Fear). Such a rapid cooling of sentiment often indicates that the market is entering the final stage of "panic selling." 3️⃣ ⚡ Core Drivers: Iran Nuclear Standoff and the Fed’s "Nuclear Button" ⒈ Geopolitics: "Frozen Period" in the Middle East Fails⑴ Negotiation Deadlock: Reports suggest Trump may reject Iran’s new proposals regarding the nuclear deal. Navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices up, directly raising the discount rate for crypto assets. ⑵ Inflation Link: Crude returning to near $100 strengthens the "Higher for Longer" expectation, limiting BTC’s premium space post-halving. ⒉ Macro: "Silence Period" Panic Ahead of Wednesday's Fed Meeting⑴ Hike Clouds: The market is starting to fear that Powell may restart "rate hike" discussions tomorrow night due to high inflation expectations (4.7%). This extreme expectation is the primary cause of today’s "deep squat" in risk assets. 4️⃣ 🏆 Trading Logic Backtest & Mispricing Alerts ⒈ ✅ Successful Logic:⑴ "Conference Cycle Profit-Taking": Sticking to the logic of reducing exposure during the peak of the LA conference successfully avoided today’s drawdown. ⑵ "Increasing Cash Ratio": Staying on the sidelines while the VIX held above 18 and oil spiked prevented FOMO buying above $79k. ⒉ ❌ Mispricing Risks:⑴ Underestimating ETF Outflow Sensitivity: It was assumed the momentum of the 9-day streak would carry into May, but institutional reactions to macro inflation data were much faster than the models predicted. 5️⃣ 🔮 Strategy Guidance: Playing the "Golden Pit" at the $76,000 Mark ⒈ Action Triggers⑴ BTC Core Support: $76,000. If the daily close holds this level tomorrow morning, today’s move was just a "wick" to wash out weak hands; if lost, the target shifts down to $74,000. ⑵ BTC Critical Resistance: $78,500. A reclamation of this level is required to declare the correction over. ⒉ Speculative Opportunities⑴ "Fed Day" Short Squeeze: If Powell’s tone is even slightly softer (dovish) tomorrow night, BTC—under negative or near-zero funding—could trigger a violent short squeeze. ⚠️ Risk Warning: A breakout of oil above $105 could trigger liquidity exhaustion; sudden escalation of military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. 2026-04-28
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Kevin🇭🇰
Kevin🇭🇰@Kevin_Ascendex·
🌙 Kevin的web3日记 | 晚报 | 2026年4月28日 星期二| 核心定调: 洛杉矶大会喧嚣下的“缩量回马枪”。 洛杉矶 Bitcoin 2026 大会进入高潮,但盘面却上演了典型的“利好兑现”式回调。BTC 跌破 $7.7 万心理关口,恐贪指数单日暴跌 14 点。这并非共识瓦解,而是市场在美联储决议前夕,对“再通胀”风险与地缘僵局的防御性调仓。 1️⃣ 📊 盘面全景:风险偏好骤降后的“技术性回撤” ⒈ BTC [$76,574 | -1.03%]⑴ 支撑转换:BTC 日内失守 $7.8 万关键位,最低下探至 $76,000 附近。目前正测试前期突破点 $76,000 的支撑效力,缩量回调显示主力尚未大规模离场。 ⑵ 占比波动:BTC 统治力维持在 57%。虽然价格回撤,但由于山寨币跌幅更深,大饼依然是场内流动性的最后避风港。 ⒉ ETH & SOL [同步承压]⑴ ETH ($2,284 | -0.84%):受 ETF 净流出(约 $5,000 万)拖累,ETH 再次跌破 $2,300 关口。Glamsterdam 升级后的抛压消化仍需时间。 ⑵ SOL ($83.75 | -1.25%):失守 $85 关口。虽然洛杉矶大会上有不少关于 SOL 扩展性的讨论,但二级市场受流动性抽血影响明显。 ⒊ 宏观外围 (实时监控)⑴ 美股“惊险”新高:标普 500 (SPX) 收于 7,173.91 (+0.12%);纳指报 24,887 (+0.20%)。尽管指数微涨,但市场中位数表现疲软。 ⑵ 大宗商品预警:WTI 原油 飙升至 $99.70 (+3.46%),直逼百元大关;黄金 报 $4,627.50。VIX (恐慌指数) 报 18.39,显示避险情绪正在暗流涌动。 2️⃣ 🔍 资金与筹码:九连阳终结?ETF 出现获利了结 ⒈ 机构端:ETF 连续流入纪录面临挑战⑴ 净流出隐忧:今日初步数据显示美区 spot ETFs 出现资金松动。在此前创下连续 9 天(累计 $21.2 亿)的净流入纪录后,部分长线机构选择在 $7.8 万上方止盈。 ⑵ 累积规模:累计净流入维持在 $582 亿 附近。分析师认为这属于正常的“阶梯式补仓”节奏,而非趋势逆转。 ⒉ 衍生品:负费率抬头,空头试图“偷袭”⑴ 费率信号:部分平台 BTC 资金费率降至 +0.0001%,甚至出现短时负费率,说明多头杠杆已基本洗清,空头力量开始博弈。 ⑵ 恐贪指数:从昨日的 47 骤降至 33 (恐惧)。这种极速的情绪降温,往往预示着市场进入了“恐慌抛售”的尾声。 3️⃣ ⚡ 核心驱动变量:伊朗核僵局与联储“核按钮” ⒈ 地缘政治:中东局势的“冷冻期”失效⑴ 谈判僵局:消息称特朗普可能拒绝伊朗关于核协议的新提议。霍尔木兹海峡的通航风险推高了原油价格,直接导致加密资产贴现率抬升。 ⑵ 通胀链条:原油重回 $100 附近强化了“高利率更久”的预期,限制了 BTC 在减半后的溢价空间。 ⒉ 宏观:周三联储会议的“缄默期”恐慌⑴ 加息阴云:市场开始担心明晚鲍威尔会因通胀预期(4.7%)过高而重启“加息”讨论。这种极端预期是今日风险资产集体“深蹲”的主因。 4️⃣ 🏆 交易逻辑回测与对错警示 ⒈ ✅ 成功的逻辑:⑴ “大会周期性止盈”:坚持在洛杉矶大会高潮期减仓的逻辑完美避开了今日的回撤。 ⑵ “现金比例抬升”:在 VIX 站稳 18 且原油大涨时保持观望,避免了在 $7.9 万上方追涨。 ⒉ ❌ 错误定价风险:⑴ 低估了 ETF 流出的敏感性:原以为九连阳的惯性会维持到 5 月,但机构对宏观通胀数据的反应速度远超模型预期。 5️⃣ 🔮 策略指引:$76,000 关口的“黄金坑”博弈 ⒈ 操作触发位⑴ BTC 核心支撑:$76,000。若明晨收盘守住此位,则今日回调仅为“插针洗筹”;若失守,目标位将下移至 $74,000。 ⑵ BTC 关键阻力:$78,500。站稳此位方可宣告调整结束。 ⒉ 博弈机会点⑴ “美联储日”反抽:若鲍威尔明晚口径稍微偏软(鸽派),负费率状态下的 BTC 将引发暴力挤空。 ⚠️ 风险提示: 原油若突破 $105 关口将引发流动性枯竭风险;霍尔木兹海峡军事冲突风险突发升级。 2026-04-28
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Kevin🇭🇰
Kevin🇭🇰@Kevin_Ascendex·
@dotenbear Hey this is Kevin the Business Development Director AscendEX(Ex-BitMax| 7+years,10M+ Users) Daily Market Insights & Listing Services 6y verified Web3 degen | BullBear veteran Building the future of Web3 & connections 🚀 Let's follow together & build up🤝
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SC17~dotenbear~
SC17~dotenbear~@dotenbear·
僕にとってはかなり大きな大きな喜びです!! フォロワー様が1000人を超えました😆 もうっ😍🥰😝😜🤪☺️🥳🤡です。 本当にありがとうございます😆 これからもよろしくお願いいたします😆 #ブルバ100 #ブルバ
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Viki_Nan.mp3
Viki_Nan.mp3@ec_unoxx·
去了一趟香港,仿佛被别人的光芒灼烧了 维持人形长达整!整!五!天!终于变回老鼠🐭,对着电脑屏幕默默整理一下心中偏见(bushi 没有观点,全是感受,也写不出来什么对行业发展的看法🚬 很多时候感觉自己只是去排队领了很多鸡蛋。 因为没带行李箱,所有的周边都要拎在手上,背着那么大一个 BNB CHAIN 的袋子真的好像韭菜成精(太显眼了) ---- 见到了很多的老朋友、新朋友,以及认识很久但初次见面的老网友,甚至还见到了多年未见的高中同学。 在人群的包围中仿佛可以屏蔽掉胡思乱想的信号,但一个人的时候又开始默默反刍白天接收到的信息。 就像我一直以来做的事情,在比较中锚定标的,在相对中估值自己。 ---- 可能因为我没在这个行业有个正儿八经的工作(没有 BD 的需求,也没有一个确切的出发点和 KPI ),导致做很多事情的时候都有点拧巴。 (老中人拧巴的一生🚬) 好像更准确一点地说,是小镇做题家的拧巴。 我总觉得我不应该放弃任何一个科目,即便是我不擅长且讨厌的科目。 这些科目在现在看起来是:要做 influencer、trader,还是 builder?(当然其实我的暴论是大多数情况下,Most influencers are just cosplaying traders/builders, including myself. ) 不放弃任何一个科目就更容易陷入一种「既要又要还要也要」的幻觉中。更要命的是,还得关心自己的姿态是不是够优雅,如果你知道那个穿着泳装参加考试的实验。 也许 attention 真的是最贵的东西,当你关心自己在别人眼中的姿态时,就真的 literally PAYING attention to them 了。 ---- 以及这次去香港又有了一些新的感受。 在香港的城市景观里,有一种这一切的确很繁华很神奇、但是和我有什么关系的感觉。也许是因为我意识到那些街景中行色匆匆的人群,那些摩天大楼里亮着灯的办公室,都是每一个渺小个体组成的人类景观,而我也是这景观的一部分。 我不拥有它们,但观看者却可以轻易“拥有”我(作为游客的我),甚至资本家可以更大程度地“拥有”我(作为工人阶级的我)。 但在自然中,看到日升月落、海浪潮汐的感觉是不同的,那是一种觉得这个世界属于我、我也属于这个世界的感觉。 AI 老师说,这是因为大自然对我一无所求(by @crypto_9A ) ---- PS: 1)香港的撞人族和日本有的一拼,但风格又不太一样,建议互通有无、引进一下彼此(?) 2)还有,真不能再吃了(其实刚刚又拿起一包鲍师傅芝士蛋黄酥狂炫🚬) 3)我有时在厦门,有时在上海,欢迎大家和我线下线上聊天。
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Kevin🇭🇰
Kevin🇭🇰@Kevin_Ascendex·
@_som_too Hey this is Kevin the Business Development Director AscendEX(Ex-BitMax| 7+years,10M+ Users) Daily Market Insights & Listing Services 6y verified Web3 degen | BullBear veteran Building the future of Web3 & connections 🚀 Let's follow together & build up🤝
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SOMTO
SOMTO@_som_too·
Congratulations to me 😁 I made it out 🤝💯🔙 Thanks to everyone ❤️✅
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Kevin🇭🇰
Kevin🇭🇰@Kevin_Ascendex·
@QuangTin1990 Hey this is Kevin the Business Development Director AscendEX(Ex-BitMax| 7+years,10M+ Users) Daily Market Insights & Listing Services 6y verified Web3 degen | BullBear veteran Building the future of Web3 & connections 🚀 Let's follow together & build up🤝
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Kan kaew
Kan kaew@QuangTin1990·
Mai mốt anh giàu, anh có cưới em không?
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🐹_Leslie鼠鼠
🐹_Leslie鼠鼠@LeslieLi92210·
这个事情我有一定的发言权 朋友们给我取的外号有仓鼠 松鼠 老鼠 lopy 阿拉蕾 台湾妹…….
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von bluce
von bluce@BluceVon61916·
干推好,还是干微信公众号好啊 我干公众号,半个月,搞了10块钱 有没有其他更好的可以文章或者自媒体赚钱的方式啊
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Kevin🇭🇰
Kevin🇭🇰@Kevin_Ascendex·
@hjBB3tiAdf3170 Hey this is Kevin the Business Development Director AscendEX(Ex-BitMax| 7+years,10M+ Users) Daily Market Insights & Listing Services 6y verified Web3 degen | BullBear veteran Building the future of Web3 & connections 🚀 Let's follow together & build up🤝
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なみだまり
なみだまり@hjBB3tiAdf3170·
なんと…!! 400名の方にフォローして頂けました😭 本当にありがとうございます🩵 仲良くしてくれて嬉しいです✨ これからもよろしくお願いします🙏
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Crypto美羊羊
Crypto美羊羊@Crypto777888·
到底有没有显化成功的呀 你们都是怎么做的 教教我好吗
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Kevin🇭🇰
Kevin🇭🇰@Kevin_Ascendex·
@Messyxoxx Hey this is Kevin the Business Development Director AscendEX(Ex-BitMax| 7+years,10M+ Users) Daily Market Insights & Listing Services 6y verified Web3 degen | BullBear veteran Building the future of Web3 & connections 🚀 Let's follow together & build up🤝
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Messy 🍭
Messy 🍭@Messyxoxx·
My verified followers percentage is 68% Tell me about yours verified followers percentage?
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Kevin🇭🇰
Kevin🇭🇰@Kevin_Ascendex·
@shooutwhere Hey this is Kevin the Business Development Director AscendEX(Ex-BitMax| 7+years,10M+ Users) Daily Market Insights & Listing Services 6y verified Web3 degen | BullBear veteran Building the future of Web3 & connections 🚀 Let's follow together & build up🤝
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shooutwhere🔰
shooutwhere🔰@shooutwhere·
Bismillah Day 1 ngerintis akun cenblu. Liat orang-orang gampang banget tembus jutaan impressions sama ribuan followers, kira-kira akun baru netas kaya gini bisa nyusul juga ga ya? 🤔
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诺鸭船长3
诺鸭船长3@noahduck283·
一周涨了500粉,太太太感谢大家了!!!😭 还记得自己之前的目标是一天涨10个就好 分享几个点 1.开头两句话一定要写好,图片尽可能直观,3s定生死 2.8块钱开蓝v或者有钱就P+,你的评论才会被看到 3.多点赞、留言、转发,别人也会帮你,让有价值的内容更容易被看见!
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诺鸭船长3@noahduck283

10天,突破3000粉。 我的方法很土,但管用。 1、只写两种内容:小白向AI教程、 搞钱项目。(本质是利他) 2、上推的人是来找情绪价值的,80%提供情绪价值+20%干货(本质还是利他) 3、转发好内容,但加你自己的钩子。(永远利他) 4、每天出摊。算法不认人,只认活跃度。 5、没爆就换角度再发,别删帖。稳住心态,删了就白发了。 永远真诚、永远利他! 你能帮到的人越多,关注你的人越多。

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Crypto_10x
Crypto_10x@BTC_Gusta·
有没有人内地朋友想吃? 来 我请你
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Kevin🇭🇰
Kevin🇭🇰@Kevin_Ascendex·
🍱 Kevin’s Web3 Diary | Midday Report [AI News] | 2026.04.28 Tue 1️⃣ 🌡️ Macro Environment Monitoring 1 Global Sentiment & Risk Assets1) Fear & Greed Index: Reported at 66 (Greed). Institutional funds remain in "wait-and-see" mode ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting, with liquidity concentrating on the "Magnificent Seven" earnings outlook. 2) BTC Performance: Trading at $77,715. BTC maintains narrow volatility between $77,000 and $78,000. As AI earnings season kicks off, BTC is being repriced as a dual anchor for both safe-haven and tech-premium flows. 2 Macro Pricing Logic1) The Power Bottleneck: Morgan Stanley’s April report projects U.S. data center power demand at 74GW by 2028, with a staggering 49GW shortfall in available access. Energy accessibility has officially replaced raw compute as the new physical ceiling for expansion. 2) Rate Cut Expectations Frozen: AI-driven productivity gains have boosted potential GDP growth, giving the Fed little reason to cut. Markets have effectively erased H1 2026 rate cut expectations. 2️⃣ 🛡️ AI Core Dynamics 1 The Inflection of Agentic AI1) Reasoning Tipping Point: Post-GTC 2026, autonomous task execution for AI Agents has increased 40% QoQ. Intel and AMD reports show Agentic workloads driving a 22% YoY rebound in data center CPU revenue. 2) Monetization Divergence: PwC reports that just 20% of "AI Leaders" are capturing 74% of the global economic value generated by AI. The sector is shifting from "experimental burn" to "P&L driven." 2 Model & Compute Evolution1) Cost Breakthrough: DeepSeek V4 was released, claiming superior performance on domestic chips at a fraction of the cost of Western closed-source models, sparking intense debate on "Compute Democratization." 3️⃣ 🏗️ Semiconductor Supply Chain 1 NVIDIA Rubin (R100) Delivery Dynamics1) Production Bottlenecks: Due to validation hurdles for HBM4 and ConnectX-9 integration, TrendForce lowered the 2026 Rubin delivery forecast to 1.5 million units (approx. 22% mix). 2) The Blackwell "Reign": Rubin's delay serves as a tailwind for the Blackwell (B200/B300) series, with market share projected to hit 71%, sustaining high margins for the HBM3E supply chain (e.g., SK Hynix). 2 Memory (HBM4) Supremacy1) Samsung Leads Shipments: Samsung has taken the lead in mass HBM4 shipments, currently holding the pole position in initial Rubin platform validation. 2) Price Surge Warning: Deloitte predicts a 50% price spike in memory by mid-2026 as AI data center demand cannibalizes specialized wafer and packaging capacity. 4️⃣ ⚖️ Geopolitics & Compliance 1 Multilateral Export Enforcement1) The MATCH Act Narrative: On April 22, the House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced the MATCH Act, aiming to coordinate restrictions with allies on SMIC, Huawei, and CXMT. Oversight has evolved into "penetrating multilateral regulation." 2 Sovereign AI & Data Residency1) Hardware-Level Tracking: New U.S. proposals seek to mandate "hardware-level chip location verification" to prevent illegal extraction of closed-source AI model weights. Compliance is now a core differentiator for compute leasing premiums. 5️⃣ 📉 Associated Token Sectors 1 AI Token Sector Performance1) Beta Resilience: Driven by BTC’s stability and AI hardware earnings, the AI sector gained 4.5% today. Capital is visibly rotating back into protocols with actual GPU orchestration utility. 2 Key Assets Monitoring1) TAO (Bittensor): $299.64, with a market cap near $4.2B. As the pricing benchmark for decentralized AI compute, TAO shows strong consensus support near the $300 mark. 2) RENDER: Market cap at $5.1B. Having pivoted from a CGI tool to a primary AI infrastructure provider, Render's institutional holding ratio reached a 2026 high. 6️⃣ ⚡ Computing Infrastructure 1 Architecture Pivot: Training to Inference1) Inference Demand Surge: In Q2 2026, global inference demand is projected to significantly surpass training for the first time. NVIDIA's "Extreme Co-design" for the Rubin platform addresses the power-to-performance wall. 2 Energy & Thermal Revolution1) Liquid Cooling Adoption: New AI data center builds show liquid cooling coverage breaking 85%. Thermal efficiency is now a direct driver of node profitability, leading to premium valuations for energy-efficient assets. 7️⃣ 🎯 Actionable Trading Strategies 1 Short-term Tactical Plays1) The Blackwell Cycle Arbitrage: Given Rubin’s delay, HBM3E suppliers offer higher conviction. Watch for catch-up gains in liquid cooling leaders and P&T7-related entities. 2 Mid-term Allocation1) Focus on "Power-Privileged" Assets: Prioritize compute center providers with nuclear onsite-power or microgrid tech. In 2026, compute premiums are essentially premiums on "Power Accessibility." 8️⃣ ⚠️ Risk Warning 1 HBM4 Yield Black Swan: Despite mass production validation, any yield drops in the critical Hybrid Bonding phase could trigger a secondary shock to global delivery schedules. 2 Regulatory Penetration Risk: With the MATCH Act and Sovereign AI laws, nodes bypassing restrictions via offshore leasing face abrupt supply disruption and criminal liability risks. 2026.04.28
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Kevin🇭🇰
Kevin🇭🇰@Kevin_Ascendex·
🍱 Kevin的Web3日记 | 午报[AI News] | 2026.04.28 星期二 周二开市,全球AI产业正处于“Rubin减速”与“Blackwell补位”的结构性调仓期。今日核心数据指向存储芯片(HBM)的定价权已成为产业链第一优先级,而宏观层面上的“电力缺口”正式从预测转为物理层面的扩张边界。 1️⃣ 🌡️ 宏观环境监测 1 全球金融情绪与风险资产表现 1) 恐贪指数:报 66 (贪婪)。在 4 月 29 日 FOMC 利率决议前夕,机构资金呈现“战术性观望”,流动性向具备强现金流的“Magnificent Seven”财报预期集结。 2) BTC 锚定表现:报 $77,715。BTC 在 $77,000-$78,000 区间维持极窄幅震荡,回撤力度微弱。随着 AI 财报季开启,BTC 正在被重塑为避险与科技溢价的双重锚点。 2 宏观定价逻辑 1) 电力需求爆发:摩根士丹利 4 月报告指出,到 2028 年美国数据中心电力需求将达 74GW,目前仍存在约 49GW 的缺口。电力获取能力已取代芯片算力,成为衡量 AI 企业扩张天花板的新物理指标。 2) 降息预期“冰封”:由于 AI 驱动的生产力跃迁显著提升了潜在 GDP 增速,美联储维持高利率的底气十足,市场已基本抹去 2026 年上半年的降息预期。 2️⃣ 🛡️ AI 核心动态 1 智能体 (Agentic AI) 的性能跃迁 1) 推理拐点确认:GTC 2026 后,Agentic AI 在推理端的自主任务执行成功率环比提升了 40%。Intel 与 AMD 财报显示,Agentic 工作负载已带动数据中心 CPU 收入录得 22% 的同比反弹。 2) 变现逻辑分化:PwC 最新研究指出,全球仅 20% 的头部企业捕获了 AI 产生的 74% 经济价值。AI 正从“实验性投入”转向“利润表驱动”,市场进入硬核审计期。 2 模型与算力演进 1) 成本突围:DeepSeek 发布 V4 模型,宣称在国产芯片上实现了优于西方闭源模型的性能,且成本仅为后者的几分之一,引发市场对“算力民主化”的激烈讨论。 3️⃣ 🏗️ 半导体供应链 1 NVIDIA Rubin (R100) 交付动态 1) 量产节奏受阻:因 HBM4 验证进度波动及 ConnectX-9 适配挑战,分析机构 TrendForce 将 Rubin 2026 年交付预期从 200 万颗下调至 150 万颗(占比约 22%)。 2) Blackwell 的“统治期”延长:Rubin 的延迟反向利好 Blackwell (B200/B300) 系列,其市场份额预计将提升至 71%,带动 HBM3E 供应链厂商(如 SK 海力士)利润窗口延长。 2 存储芯片 (HBM4) 霸权争夺 1) 三星量产领跑:三星已率先开始 HBM4 的大规模出货,目前在 Rubin 平台的首发验证中处于领先地位;而 SK 海力士与美光仍处于核心验证的最后冲刺期。 2) 价格异动预警:德勤预测,由于 AI 数据中心对特种内存的虹吸效应,2026 年中存储芯片价格可能出现 50% 的季节性暴涨。 4️⃣ ⚖️ 地缘与合规 1 出口管制“多边化”升级 1) MATCH 法案推进:美众议院外交委员会 4 月 22 日推进《MATCH Act》,旨在联手盟友将半导体设备限制扩展至中芯国际、华为、CXMT 等实体,监管颗粒度已进化为穿透式联合监管。 2 算力主权与安全审计 1) 硬件级位置验证:美议院最新提案要求强制实施“硬件级芯片位置验证”,以防止闭源 AI 模型权重被非法提取。合规成本正成为算力租赁标的的核心分水岭。 5️⃣ 📉 相关 Token 板块 1 AI 代币赛道表现 1) 板块 Beta 韧性:受 BTC 稳固走势及 AI 硬件财报利好驱动,AI 板块今日整体录得 4.5% 反弹。资金正从纯叙事币回流至具备真实 GPU 调度能力的底层协议。 2 重点监测标的 1) TAO (Bittensor):报 $299.64,市值稳居 $4.2B 附近。作为去中心化 AI 算力的定价基准,TAO 在 $300 关口表现出极强的共识支撑。 2) RENDER:市值报 $5.1B。随着 AI 推理需求转向分布式架构,Render 已完成从 CGI 工具向 AI 算力基础设施龙头的定性重置,机构持仓比例创 2026 年新高。 6️⃣ ⚡ 算力基础设施 1 从训练向推理的架构转型 1) 推理需求爆发:2026 年 Q2,全球推理算力需求预计将首次显著超越训练需求。Vera Rubin 平台的“极度协同设计 (Extreme Co-design)”解决了算力功耗比难题。 2 能源与散热革命 1) 液冷渗透率:新开工的 AI 数据中心中液冷覆盖率已突破 85%。散热效率直接决定了节点的单位盈利能力,相关热管理板块资产正获得巨额估值溢价。 7️⃣ 🎯 实战交易策略 1 短期战术 (Tactical) 操作 1) 博弈“Blackwell 周期”:在 Rubin 延迟背景下,HBM3E 供应链确定性更高。关注具备 P&T7 封装能力及液冷龙头的补涨机会。 2 中线配置逻辑 1) 锁定“电力特权”标的:关注具备核电直供或微电网技术的算力中心供应商,在 2026 年,算力溢价将本质上体现为“电力获取能力”的溢价。 8️⃣ ⚠️ 风险预警 1 HBM4 良率黑天鹅:虽然进入量产验证,但 Hybrid Bonding(混合键合)环节若良率不及预期,将引发全产业链交付周期的二次坍塌。 2 政策穿透风险:美《MATCH Act》及相关主权法案推进,原本通过离岸租赁绕道获取算力的节点面临被突发断供及刑事追责的风险。 2026.04.28
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Kevin🇭🇰
Kevin🇭🇰@Kevin_Ascendex·
#蓝V关注 兄弟们,又是新的一周,大家一起互关起来吧
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DOGE教父
DOGE教父@DOGEbaby6666·
来一波蓝V互关 诚信互关 ,取关的不要来 点赞 留言 如果有遗漏的私信我 这几天粉丝越来越少了 快5000个蓝V关注了。加油加油。一起互关 #蓝V互关 #互关
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