Klaus Molle

588 posts

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Klaus Molle

Klaus Molle

@KlausMolle

Katılım Temmuz 2019
90 Takip Edilen41 Takipçiler
Gene Investing w/Anthony 🧬
Bears say ZERO healthcare providers will prescribe Lonvo-z. $NTLA Survey of 151 physicians in Nov/Dec 2025 says that 139 of them (92%) would prescribe it. They also said they’d prescribe it to 54% of their >4,000 HAE patients. Yes, I would bet my life savings that @Hockman9797 is wrong.
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Klaus Molle
Klaus Molle@KlausMolle·
@GeneInvesting @Rayanbiotech Free choice for holders and shorters at what price they are happy to sell, no need to make any sense - its the stockmarket baby and some will always feel close to apocalypsis while others like to pretend this is the state…
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Klaus Molle
Klaus Molle@KlausMolle·
@GeneInvesting @Rayanbiotech If they extended N just because so much interest I expected this to become a formality, but right, restart after regulatory hold seems to cause lot if issues. At least we might see sp recover again as today we pay for FDA & RGN bad news
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Klaus Molle
Klaus Molle@KlausMolle·
@Hockman9797 @GeneInvesting The cost of lonvo-z per QALY is waht matters and will provide a hige opportunity to sustainable and efficient HAE patient and health system care - $ntla
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The HockMan
The HockMan@Hockman9797·
@GeneInvesting Payors will likely not cover this treatment right away as its cost will be huge. Andembry is a once a month sub Q, with better efficacy then ntla. Ntla will have 1-4 patients treatment at most first year at best. Many payor step edits
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Gene Investing w/Anthony 🧬
How many total HAE patients do you think $NTLA will treat in the first 2 full quarters after launch? (Q3 27’ and Q4 27’) My goal is 80, but anything 60+ I’d be happy with (may adjust based on pricing).
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Klaus Molle
Klaus Molle@KlausMolle·
@GeneInvesting 15% of US patients on prophylaxis (equals 600 out of 4200) are extremely willing to switch LTP for better option. Therapy administration burden and effectiveness were main drivers to switch, one and done was not yet included as available option sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
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Klaus Molle
Klaus Molle@KlausMolle·
@GeneInvesting Navenibart: no more than 50% patients reach attack free status in any cohort of their open label phase 1/2 trial while mocking lonvo-z’s ph3 blinded pbo controlled 62% attack free in the initial 6 month and number growing as 100% responded $ntla 31/32 in ph1/2
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Gene Investing w/Anthony 🧬
$BCRX $NTLA Biotech specialists must really like Navenibart, and must think Orladeyo won't get destroyed by $PHVS. I don't get the love affair, and think investors aren't realizing the Navenibart data isn't comparable due to study design. Likely will be in the mix, but still feel most patient's would prefer a cure or great pill (Orladeyo isn't great). The BCRX MC at $2.3B is cheap given their revenue, though. $160.5M (as stated below would've been BCRX's Total Operating Expenses without the acquisition). Intellia's offering went from the original $180M to $207M which added ~$194.5M to cash/assets. Orladeyo did make $148.3M in Q1 so could do $600-$700M this year, which would cover their Op-ex roughly for the year sans buyout.
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Klaus Molle
Klaus Molle@KlausMolle·
@DoodadDoctor @bob_bob2131 Based on the pure 62% attack free over the 6 months, data will show more get free after lag period. US: 7000p; 4200 on prophylaxis, 1000+ for lonvo-z this will pay development of nex-z and open pipeline $ntla
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Dr. Rajiv Doodad
Dr. Rajiv Doodad@DoodadDoctor·
Today’s $NTLA reaction says a lot. Data may have been “good,” but not good enough to break the bear case. Competitive efficacy, sure, but the market is clearly still discounting it for adoption risk, irreversible gene-editing concerns, safety/durability uncertainty, and the infusion burden vs easier chronic options. Meanwhile $PHVS still looks like the cleaner setup: oral, reversible, strong efficacy, and much easier commercial story. CHAPTER-3 P3 data coming Q3’26. $BCRX navenibart P3 reads out early ’27. HAE prophy landscape:
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Dr. Rajiv Doodad
Dr. Rajiv Doodad@DoodadDoctor·
@KlausMolle @bob_bob2131 Wow, company says that people are very likely to use their drug that they are actively spending billions to develop and try to sell.
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Klaus Molle
Klaus Molle@KlausMolle·
@GeneInvesting Similar pattern just seen with ntla, shareprice drops, referencing low valley for recapitalization minus additional 20% for the risk (?), after dilution the injectors buy the sp up
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Gene Investing w/Anthony 🧬
If you’re not adding $PRME at $2.96, why do you even invest? 🤷🏻‍♂️ I wish I could add a boatload.
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Klaus Molle
Klaus Molle@KlausMolle·
@GeneInvesting Upward trend in LV stroke volume also points to improved cardiac performance
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Gene Investing w/Anthony 🧬
@KlausMolle ECV fraction as % has long been the standard and often mistaken as a sign amyloid is increasing if it’s increasing… but what that gets wrong and why MasterLongevity is wrong to use it, is the fact it assumes LV Mass (the denominator of the fraction didn’t drastically reduce).
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Gene Investing w/Anthony 🧬
Figured a visual was needed... (numbers rounded) $NTLA Poll below to check for understanding.
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Klaus Molle
Klaus Molle@KlausMolle·
@A_May_MD $ntla what would you guess when they start to cover the remaining open 40M shorted shares?
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Adam May
Adam May@A_May_MD·
Looks like someone blew out of a big $NTLA short at open. Tough month for many L/S managers. Stock was roughly +8% on nearly 2M shares in the first 15 minutes. Fading now, and $XBI -2%. I’ll go out on a limb and predict deep red by EOD 🫡
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Klaus Molle
Klaus Molle@KlausMolle·
@GeneInvesting No other therapy ever showed data like nex-z: stabilization of disease with beneficial progressive remodeling of the heart. Attr patient groups would be well advised to place some funds into proper education on such relevant questions related to future therapy goals
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Gene Investing w/Anthony 🧬
Poll Question: Do you understand how ECV (Extracellular Volume Fraction) can increase 3%, yet Extracellular Mass reduces by 8%?
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R̶e̶t̶a̶r̶d̶ Biotech Gambler
@KlausMolle @GeneInvesting You're clearly biased because you have money invested in the stock, I'm looking at it as an outsider that literally does this for a living lol... You can avoid real world evidence as much as you like, let's see if Lonzo actually hits estimates once approved...
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R̶e̶t̶a̶r̶d̶ Biotech Gambler
The QWERTY paradox of BIOTECH: I was doint some research on $NTLA and other $CRSP names... And basically I've come to the same conclusion on all of them. The technology is great, adoption not so much... $NTLA leading drug candidate is a 1 time gene therapy for HAE, the problem? It won't sell as well as the market is expecting. Why? Simple. HAE (Hereditary Angio Edema) has multiple approved therapies, the one of the main players in the space is $BCRX which I've been bullish on for some time now. They own ORDALEYO and Navenibart both positioned to be an oligopoly in the HAE space. But there are other drugs in the space like Takhzyro, Haegarda, Dawnzera, etc. Even if I believe $NTLA's gene therapy will get approved I REALLY doubt they will even capture 5% of the TAM. Mainly because in Medicine, there's a simple rule, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. If a patient is on Orladeyo ($BCRX) or Takhzyro and hasn’t had an attack in two years, a doctor is almost never going to suggest an irreversible gene edit. Why risk a "clean" patient’s long-term safety for a marginal gain? $NTLA will be a last resort 'drug' and it won't move from that spot for a while, many MDs are still scared of gene editing and so are patients. So to conclude, I know there's a lot of bullish sentiment around $NTLA, and to be fair, I'm bullish as well, but from my estimates, I believe analyst expectations are too bullish and they will not be reached. For anyone holding $NTLA please model accordingly to real life outcomes and not to insanely bullish expectactions.
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Klaus Molle
Klaus Molle@KlausMolle·
@GeneInvesting @AretardInvestor Opinion heavy, arguing data out of context, offended for differing opinion, stating fantasy, i just wonder what his patients have to say about him
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R̶e̶t̶a̶r̶d̶ Biotech Gambler
If thats all you got you sure didn't understand a single thing, HAE market is packed... There's no point in arguing with you when you don't even understand basic market dynamics of the sector you invest in. No wonder you've never beaten the market. Go look up the numbers of drugs that are available lol Keep living in your dream life where Lonzo is going to capture 100% of the TAM lol...
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Klaus Molle
Klaus Molle@KlausMolle·
@AretardInvestor You are right Dr x and everyone else just has the brainpower to uncover your non-scientific approach of data comparison: no need for new therapy apart from navenibart that is only starting phase 3 - hahaha
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R̶e̶t̶a̶r̶d̶ Biotech Gambler
I'm an MD, I have multiple immunologist and allergist friends, these aren't my opinions, they're backed by real world evidence from doctors who literally see HAE patients for a living lol... How about you stop investing in things you don't understand? You can be as bullish as you wan't, that's not going to change a thing in a real world setting lol I would NEVER change a patient who's medication is already working to a new unproven medication which could have long term irreversible changes. What's so hard to understand?
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Klaus Molle
Klaus Molle@KlausMolle·
@AretardInvestor Not more than your personal wish or opinion, you do not consider input from KOL and medical need. No problem- no need to agree as long as you stay objective on the facts
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R̶e̶t̶a̶r̶d̶ Biotech Gambler
You're still not addressing the elephant in the room, If a patient is attack free on a therapy, no MD is going to switch to a gene editing therapy... If no one uses the therapy = no revenue... How hard is that to understand? HAE is a highly competitive market and patients are very well treated... At most, Lonza could take orphan patients where no other treatment has worked... And again, I do believe $NTLA is undervalued, but I don't think it will perform as well as analysts think. I would estimate peak sales would come at around 10-12% of TAM many years from approval... while it's still money, roll out is going to be very slow, and that's what matters.
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