KnightBladePM

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KnightBladePM

KnightBladePM

@KnightBladePM

Scaled fund from 5M to 1.5B in 5 years, 15y buyside | 2022 burnout, Now $NQ Scalp + Swing Barbell strategy | Institutional logic. Retail execution ⚔️

The Grind Katılım Mart 2014
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
In 5 years, I scaled a fund from $5M to $1.5B. I toured the country, pitched to the biggest allocators, and lived the "Institutional Dream." In 2022, that dream nearly cost me everything. Full burnout. Total reset. Here is how I switched $1.5B AUM for trading my own book and found my edge again. 🧵
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
@alaynatreene @CNN "he longer end timeframe, which some consider a worst-case scenario — was not being seriously considered" so they say themselves they are not serious about it....
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Alayna Treene
Alayna Treene@alaynatreene·
A recent internal assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency that was circulating inside the Pentagon in recent weeks determined that Iran could potentially keep the passage shut for anywhere from one to six months, four sources familiar with the document told @CNN. But White House & Pentagon officials insisted that the assessment — particularly the longer end timeframe, which some consider a worst-case scenario — was not being seriously considered cnn.com/2026/03/20/pol…
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
$NQ | The Buyside Files ⚔️ February 2020. I’m pitching $NVDA to a senior PM. My top conviction driver: AI training and inferencing for the Data Center segment is about to become a significant growth driver. He listens. Then he says: “I think you’re wrong on AI. ProViz segment has the biggest upside here.” I was a junior PM. He was senior. I did not respond Last quarter’s results: Data Center: $62.3B ProViz: $1.3B I don’t tell this story to embarrass anyone. Senior PMs get things wrong. I get things wrong every single day, my trading journal is proof of that. I tell it because of what it taught me about conviction. In institutional investing, seniority can masquerade as edge. The loudest voice in the room is often just the most tenured one. The process of stress-testing a thesis against hierarchy rather than against facts is how consensus forms and how the best ideas get killed before they compound. The market doesn’t care about your title. It cared about Data Centers. Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
@garyblack00 thinking in DCF terms often helps to figure the impact of many macro variables to a company valuation, Increase the discount rate to any DCF and see what happens and that's irrespective of any idiosyncratic impact on supply and demand $TSLA $PLTR
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
@TradingThomas3 watch out for single names volatility in the MP session, before to trade in the morning today
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TT3
TT3@TradingThomas3·
Quarterly OPEX today aka triple witching. Lot of puts hedges coming off today .
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
knowing what risk you can tolerate will remove any subconscious willingness te remove the stop loss and make THE mistake that will erase days even weeks of profits. Mistake many make is not knowing what risk level they are confortable with beforehand to eable them to shortcircuit sabotage before it happens
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Sunrise Trader
Sunrise Trader@SunriseTrader·
Position sizing is key. Risk management a traders #1 job. Not all trades are going to work and having a plan and system ahead of time keeps one calm and at peace with the end result.
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
$NQ | 2nd tap into PDL have legs? ⚔️ Lower Timeframes Flipped bearish overnight but holding above the PDL zone. Price trending higher into equilibrium, watching for a reversal around 24,550, close to PDC at 24,580. That rejection is the short entry. Higher Timeframes Still bearish. Targeting new lower low below 24,220. Scenario Short into the 24,550–24,580 PDC zone. Careful here, 2nd tap into 24 350 zone could have legs higher. If that fails and price breaks above 24,692 with structure, short bias is invalidated for the time being Events 16:00 Monthly OPEX - Triple Witch. Elevated volatility expected into the close. Morning session window keeps us clear of the worst of it. Notable $CL Trump administration considering occupation or blockade of Iran's Kharg Island $SMCI facing export-control charges against three company-linked individuals. $MOS downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA, margin expansion in phosphate fertilizers likely delayed a year. Worth monitoring for Barbell positioning. Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️ $NQ $MNQ $ES
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
@AndreasSteno had this joke during Covid but senior economist didn't think it was funny. I said "Do you know the first thing we do if there is alien landing on earth tomorrow on live TV? we cut interest rates..."
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Andreas Steno Larsen
Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno·
There is nothing more idiotic than raising interest rates because a strait with oil is closed.
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
What Claude think about it: "The central analytical error is treating the Qatar/Hormuz situation as purely inflationary for costs while ignoring that the same event is simultaneously inflating DAP realised prices at a ratio of roughly 2:1 relative to the sulfur headwind. The note says "margin expansion is delayed" — but that's only true if you assume sulfur rises without a corresponding DAP price increase."
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Wall St Engine
Wall St Engine@wallstengine·
BofA Downgrades $MOS to Neutral from Buy, Lowers PT to $30 from $33 Analyst comments: "We are downgrading MOS to Neutral from Buy as margin expansion in phosphate fertilizers is likely delayed a year. We have been bullish on phosphates and expect prices to sustain higher highs over time; however, the conflict in Iran is proving inflationary for raw materials, namely sulfur and ammonia, creating a difficult backdrop for profits. With cash flow hindered by another year of elevated capex, and a muted earnings inflection, we expect shares could be rangebound until a better backdrop emerges. This is unfortunate, as we believe spot margins were set to inflect materially just as the Iran conflict started. We remain bearish on ammonia longer term and expect material sulfur demand destruction should drive prices lower. However, we need the Strait of Hormuz to remain open for this to play out, and both could have material upside over the near term given the conflict and fallout to energy infrastructure. This means margin expansion is more of a 2027 story, and thus we wait for more clarity to emerge." Analyst: Steve Byrne
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
@C_Barraud contradictory message from the Trump administration on an hourly basis, nothing new, but in the context of a conflict signaling to the other side is quite important to go towards your objectives
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
@DKellerCMT have to be careful going all out bearish here, yes oversold can remain oversold but significant bid can still happens in the short term $NQ
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David Keller, CMT
David Keller, CMT@DKellerCMT·
We're getting close to 30% of $SPX members above their 50-day MA. Even if the longer-term trend continues bearish, bombed out breadth conditions like this can lead to short-term upside reversals.
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
@jfsrev being able to go to this kind of details level shows an incredible well thought process and highly dedicated individual about his craft. Good job!
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Jeff Sun, CFTe
Jeff Sun, CFTe@jfsrev·
I completed this project late last year to repurpose my Substack into a content hub, a one stop Trader's Guide—archiving my long-form Twitter threads into short, easily accessible links into 17 chapters of different topics, along with an FAQ and a glossary of terms I frequently use. It was meant as a small Christmas gift to the community on X/Twitter, especially since I’ve personally benefited so much from this platform for the last 16 years. It’s an incredibly powerful platform when people genuinely share what works (and what doesn't) in their own trading journey. jfsrev.substack.com/my-trading-too… I’m grateful to see the article cross 100,000 total views today. I’ll continue updating this hub with more thought-provoking content over time. Appreciate all the support, thank you to everyone.
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Jeff Sun, CFTe@jfsrev

My Trading Process, Tools, Routine, and Core Beliefs A 60 pages of experience-based lessons and insights curated from 15 years of my tweets. 1. Glossary – Terms and Expressions I Use 2. Charting – My Approach Using TradingView 3. My Screeners – Workflow of Finviz & Tradingview 4. Process & Routine – Moving Ideas to the Focus List 5. Pre-Market Routine – Situational Awareness 6. Proficient Execution– Trade Design, Stops, % Risk 7. Post-Execution – Trade Management 8. Journaling – Fine-Tuning to Improve YoY % Return 9. Conviction – Internalizing These 6 Graphics 10. Full-Time Trading – What Does It Takes 11. Five Books I Highly Recommend To Everyone 12. Free Productivity Tools & Websites I Rely On 13. How I Delayed My Own Progress by 3 Years 14. Reflections and Experiences for You to Relate To 15. Closing Remarks – A Call to Inspiration 16. FAQ, Paired with Thought-Provoking Questions 17. Subtle Strategies to Attract Institutional Attention jfsrev.substack.com/my-trading-too… Managed to finish this project early as a Christmas gift🎄for everyone — enjoy!

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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
raw materials inflation is negating benefits from rising selling prices, it's unfortunate but still we're back to level where i think downside is minimal, think they net benefit form an extended strait closure but China restriction kind of throwing a wrench in the picture, any views out there? $MOS
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
$NQ | The Shot Was There. I Blinked. ⚔️ The Tape Flushed and bounced cleanly at the identified 24,350 zone from this morning's prep. Remained choppy through the session. The Learning Opportunity 9:30 open. Everything in place. Perfect pattern setting up. Five seconds of hesitation and the tape flushed without me. I had done the work, captured part of the pattern few minutes ago but I just didn't pull the trigger. That's a different problem than taking bad trades and in some ways a harder one to fix. The Hard Rule Catalogue the perfect pattern. Define the exact conditions in advance so the brain recognizes it on sight and the hand doesn't wait for permission. Bellafiore calls it the PlayBook. If you can't describe the setup in one sentence before the open, you're not ready to take it at the open. Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️ $NQ $MNQ $ES
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
@MrMikeInvesting @market_sleuth interesting, was just noting big divergence between AI bottlenecks winners (ex: $TSEM, $AAOI ) and macro winners (ex: $LNG, $VG ) and mostly everything else. Could be a sign big weights will stabilise/rally a bit from here
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Mike Investing
Mike Investing@MrMikeInvesting·
@market_sleuth End of March/Early April, $SPY shall begin its rebound rally for a temporary recovery. Fully agree John!!
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
@PhotonCap divergence between AI bottlenecks winners, Macro winners and everyone else (losing) is stark today. $AAOI $LITE $LNG $VG for example
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
⚔️ BLADE POST The stretch I've been building toward is finally here. And somehow that's the most dangerous moment of the year. Not because the edge changed. Because I did. Good results create a new loss to protect. The brain stops trading to win and starts trading to not give it back. That shift is invisible from the outside. From the inside it feels like pressure you can't explain. Managing $1.5B taught me this the hard way. The funds that blew up weren't the ones struggling. They were the ones who thought they'd figured it out. The market doesn't care what last week looked like. The only protection is the process. Not the P&L. Still learning. Still growing. Process > PnL. ⚔️
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KnightBladePM
KnightBladePM@KnightBladePM·
@JavierBlas destruction can't be reversed by an elusive ceasefire, $CL reserves getting depleted, might get uglier before it gets better
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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
QatarEnergy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage. reuters.com/business/energ…
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