Knight

Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate and author of "Thinking, Fast and Slow": "A Wall Street firm paid its traders millions in bonuses for skill. I checked eight years of their data. It was pure luck. The skill they were paying for did not exist." > the article above is about telling a real edge from luck. kahneman won a nobel partly for showing how often, in markets, there is no edge at all, only luck we dress up as skill. a firm handed him eight years of performance records for its advisors. he lined up each year against the next, and the correlation was essentially zero. one good year said nothing about the following one. they were being rewarded, lavishly, for randomness. he called it the illusion of skill, and the firm did not want to hear it. and they weren't frauds. they genuinely felt skilled, because the mind manufactures that story on its own. an entire industry runs on the confident feeling of skill inside a game that is mostly chance. kahneman published this decades ago, it's in every copy of his book, and the interview is free. same point as my article: a track record feels like proof and usually isn't. > this doesn't mean skill never exists. it means it's rare, small, and buried so deep in noise that your confidence is a terrible guide to it. the edge isn't feeling skilled. it's the humility to demand real evidence before you believe your own results.

bold move against 🇪🇸Spain here this dude dropped $122,034 on 🇧🇪Belgium to advance past Spain → locking in a potential $486,206 payout with only 25% odds, he is counting on a huge upset will De Bruyne step up and carry Belgium, or will Lamine Yamal and Spain ruin position?

What if anyone could create their own trading agent? The most profitable prediction market traders already have agents that trade for them. Everyone else is still trading manually. Until now.

That was a staged fight Conor most likely tore his ACL or MCL in camp or during fight week He knows he has to show to make 30M He walks out totally calm, no celebration no running Gets in, does a couple of millionaire man walks, immediately goes for a flying kick Why would a man who is known for his hands run out and try to Masvidal on his bad leg? Boom, attempts the kick, knee pain in full swing, sorry guys I’m done

Norway vs England - third quarterfinal at this World Cup already $13,79m volume on this market, still 7,5 hours left until the game. Norway is a strong underdog in today’s match, their chance to advance is only 35%. can’t agree with that. I think Norway is being underrated. England has a bunch of world-class stars, but I’m not a fan of how they’ve played at this World Cup. I only liked how they played in one or two matches tbh. if England play poorly today, Norway will catch them off guard. I think that’s what’ll happen. I believe in Haaland, gonna put a bit on Norway win today. wish me luck.