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Knight
19.1K posts
Knight
@KnightPredict
Prediction Markets Researcher & Analyst @Polymarket Bull
Alpha Caller Katılım Ocak 2022
494 Takip Edilen1.8K Takipçiler
🚨ONE strait - TWO markets. pure EDGE
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still painfully weak: just 10-17 ships per day instead of the usual 60+
Only 17 days left until May 31st
Two key markets:
＞Will there be at least one day with 20+ ships by May 31st?
➡︎Yes 68¢
＞Will traffic return to normal (7-day moving average 60) by the end of May?
➡︎Yes 8¢
Most likely scenario in the combo:
- Yes on 20+ at 68¢
- No on 60+ at 83¢
- No on 80+ at 90¢
- No on normalization at 92¢
One market catches any temporary spike
The other requires full sustained recovery
Will we see at least one day ≥20 by May 31? Or will traffic stay in the low teens until June?
AshenSoul@0xashensoul
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of june? currently sitting at 34% polymarket odds over the last week, a significant cluster of top polymarket traders has been accumulating "yes" shares. but keep in mind: US/Iran markets are a pure yo-yo right now. every minor headline right now swings the order book in both directions. it’s highly likely they aren't planning to hold for the actual outcome. they might just be positioning for the next headline pump to sell into the next narrative pump.
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@KnightPredict I plan to turn this advantage into money, thank you
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@adiix_official It's just my dream to make such a profit out of $10.
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$10 → $3.5M THIS CHINESE SPORTS ANALYST CRACKED POLYMARKET
I found a very interesting trader on Polymarket and conducted an analysis of him and he is really worth attention , here is his profile : @sovereign2013?r=ecosystem" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@sovereign2013…
You can copy his trades in one click here: t.me/AresProTrading…
His strategy:
- only bets on NBA games
- combines different bet types on the same match (spreads + totals + moneyline)
- safer picks bring 10-45% profit, risky ones go from 40% up to 400%
-already has 40,000+ predictions and still counting
What most people don’t notice:
his real advantage isn’t guessing who wins → it’s placing 3-5 connected bets on the same game
when his model gets it right, all those bets win at once
I also stumbled on a sick bot that lets you copy multiple trades at once so instead of earning from one bet, you stack winnings from several at the same time
I turned $100 into $660 by hitting 4 events at once, multiplying my odds in a way a single bet never could
If you want in, here’s the TG bot (tested it myself everything runs smooth):t.me/poly_parlay_bo…
AdiiX@adiix_official
Claude Bot on Polymarket - 2 Hours Full Guide The same setup turned $300 into $2.4M. His profile: @0x8dxd?r=ecosystem" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@0x8dxd?r=ecos…
Copying his bet: t.me/AresProTrading… 2 hours. Nothing complicated. Bookmark this so you don’t lose it. English
@KnightPredict Maybe Trump's meeting with the Chinese leader will somehow speed up peace in this region, but I don't think anything will change in 17 days.
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@AlenaChramtsova yes. You're really right about that! What you're saying concerns full normalization by the end of May!
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@KnightPredict Most of the ships have already been redirected through the Cape of Good Hope. A tanker U - turn is not a bicycle U-turn
it is a delay of 10-20 days on the way
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He earned $14,195 during Trump's trip to China to visit Xi Jinping
> 16 trades on related markets
> 2,141 predictions total
> 68% win rate
Dragontree traded two markets for this meeting but bought multiple outcomes
Biggest wins:
> Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds - Yes at 21.9 cents (+$8,430 or +343%)
> Will Trump say "AI" - No at 22.3 cents (+$3,182 or +343%)
> Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" - No at 56 cents (+$1,567 or 53%)
Today you can make money on absolutely any events
The main thing is to be aware of what you are doing
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$14,194 earned by a trader just by listening to TRUMP'S SPEECHES
every single WORD in public appearances becomes MONEY for this guy
even today he made $1,293 just because Trump said "Confucius"
one word, +$1,293
his pnl is steadily climbing with almost no drawdowns, definitely a trader worth watching
imo one of the most interesting markets on polymarket right now
Maksim@MaksimDove
how to make OVER $4,000 just by listening to Trump right now the meeting between Trump and Xi is taking place and it’s a perfect opportunity to profit from the things Trump says during the event here are a few examples of what traders already made money on "Will Trump say "confucius" or "confucian" during the chinese state banquet?" $7.5 → $154.64 $2,015.24 → $3,308.46 "Will trump say "world war II" during the chinese state banquet?" $64 → $311.49 there are currently plenty of markets tied to this meeting and the conversations around it a good chance not only to follow the news, but also to make money from it
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@psanix @Polymarket there are really a lot of interesting markets on the Polymarket for this event!
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Trump and Xi Jinping Meeting Coming Soon
We have the opportunity to bet on what word Trump will say during the bilateral meeting.
I bet on the word IRAN (I am almost sure that they will definitely raise this issue)
The biggest favorites are
-Friend of mine
-Iran
-AI / Artificial Intelligence
Very cheap price on the word Crypto (5 cents) I bought a little.
I will watch the speech on one of these sites
edition.cnn.com/videos/fast/cn…
aljazeera.com/video/live
Here is the market where you can place a bet:#c85gs70" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/what-wil…
What word do you think Trump will say?
Whoever guesses first will get $10(Everyone can write 3 options with different replies)
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Polymarket Head of Growth @williamlegate confirmed Contributor Rewards.
TL;DR from the screenshots:
> Link your X account to your Polymarket profile
> Put your Polymarket profile link in your X bio
> Post quality content consistently
> Share your trades, wins, and analysis on X
> Avoid slop, fake claims, and misleading narratives
Polymarket is basically walking us straight toward Rewards. You just have to follow the guide.
Dustin Karp@digitdustin
Stopped by @mustafap0ly desk today..
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A valorant nerd grinded more than $200,000 in a single month. gaming finally paid off
while others were trading elections he was watching esports streams live.
and one day his granny walked into his room and said: "here's the money i saved for your 18th birthday, go find a good university"
he had OTHER plans:
opened polymarket. started small
→ fnatic vs vitality: +$40,644
→ mibr vs cloud9: +$36,810
→ furia vs nrg: +$32,441
no one knew. he just locked in and printed
One month later he walked up to his granny and showed her the screen, $327,919...
she was speechless. then crying. then proud
turns out university was optional
gamer:
@joblessfinalboss?r=0xSpivach" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@joblessfinalb…
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Analyze these markets through @PredictParity :
1/ predictparity.com/markets/p/stra…
2/ predictparity.com/markets/p/will…
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We've revealed the on-chain Criteria Research to track Polymarket Sharps
No doubt that Polymarket sharps hold the tendency to trade large amounts across:
> Geopolitics
As this section is the most volatile under the news and politic claims.
Retail overprices the impossible and sharps take +EV out of every trade.
> Sports
As deep pocket bettors and sports analyst pivot to Prediction Markets in search for better odds.
> Crypto
As Polymarket is obviously associated with web3 and this niche experiences same high volatility and comparable low entry threshold.
That's said, people prefer to monitor such trades, meanwhile underdog sections are left without enough attention.
What is greatly undervalued:
Polymarket sharps and whales trade underdog markets, claim winnings and build the bankroll same as on sports/geo/crypto markets.
I've made a top-rated filter in a tight cooperation with the tool's developer.
Decided to share it with you.
Now you can track when and where Polymarket top traders build their tiny but numerous +EV positions.
Dropped the full setup and link-to-access in the replies.
Kyle the Writer@KyleDeWriter
We were right again. From 4.5c to 33c in under 3 days Just fixed a profit of +750% predicting the peace Now we got 34% probability of US x Iran permanent peace deal being reached within the next week TLDR of the US proposal: They are demanding total surrender with potential compensation later > Market analysis in the quoted tweet > On-chain research tool in the replies
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We’re honored to be named the Exclusive Prediction Market Partner of Serie A.
Our real-time probability layer will now be integrated into one of the world’s most iconic football leagues.
Polymarket 🤝 Serie A
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@saurav_tweets @PredictParity I've set up notifications and now I'll be watching I wish you success.
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update on @PredictParity account, started this 8 days ago with $500
only trading with the filters i created + the default filters they provide, also avoiding sports and esports markets on this account
next update at $1500
Saurav@saurav_tweets
started trading with @PredictParity today, deposited $500 into my account after setting up a few filters to track volatility in previous few days > one filter got triggered when odds of a us-iran deal suddenly jumped from 8c to 30c > another filter showed a trader placing a $330,000 no position on a permanent peace deal after checking the news and market context, especially with reports that talks are still fragile and uncertain, i decided to place this first trade next update when portfolio reaches $750
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@KnightPredict @williamlegate @Polymarket despite the fact that Polymarket related tweets just have covered the entire X feed I still doubt the mindshare can reach 90% threshold, as there's still a counterparty
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Mindshare about to explode?
@williamlegate just dropped the exact blueprint for potential $POLY rewards
- link your X to Polymarket
- put your profile link in bio
- and regularly tweet your positions & wins
if people actually do this, CT is about to see a wave of Polymarket content
the market "Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?" is sitting at 86¢ Yes
this could easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy
Double win!
LeGate@williamlegate
@76Tensai @Polymarket Linking your X account to your Poly account is only a third of the equation. You also should probably (what do I know) link your Polymarket profile in your X bio & actively share your trades/wins/insights with the community here :)
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@KyleDeWriter @williamlegate We just keep doing what we did, but even harder!
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Polymarket Head of Growth (@williamlegate ) confirmed Contributor Rewards
Everything is shown in the picture below.
Many were doubting whether they would be qualified for X creator rewards.
Seems like YES, and the badge isn't the main criteria, but this:
> Quality of shared content matters
> Slop and fake/misleading claims will be penalized
> Duration of you contribution matters
> Any TOS violations will be blacklisted (community notes, reports)
Some information I prefer to keep unrevealed but I guess I have to link my X to Polymarket and pin my trading account in X bio.
Kyle the Writer@KyleDeWriter
KYC is now live on Polymarket. Verification tendency may seem bearish but it's actually not. Geographic Restrictions page says verified users will get the lowest possible latency. Now identification matters more than ever. Ever since Polymarket implemented fees across every markets section I've almost stopped using market orders in order to avoid paying more than I want. Meanwhile even using maker orders with higher than for verified users latency I'm not feeling being affected. These milliseconds doesn't really matter for me personally. The only users for whom this update matters - HFT trading bots and developers with need of API access certain jurisdictions. They're the only who count every millisecond gap. Exactly like we had with out 1st trading bot using API driven by Pyth Network (read here: x.com/KyleDeWriter/s…) If you're automatized / HFT / micro-inefficiency / Momentum spike or whatever Trading Bots developer - you're welcome to pass the KYC, the official form is now live But Polymarket remains KYC-free for all users. That's it.
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