Kool Keynes

@Sapere_Odd @MaxBlumenthal @AGDugin Cope harder friend. The Ayatollah isn’t dead, neither are all his top brass, and Iranian TV constantly displays dozens of downed Israeli and American planes and captured pilots that fall victim to Iran’s mighty air defense systems. What a fucking joke.

@KoolKeynes @MaxBlumenthal @AGDugin If any of what you said was true Hegseth wouldn't be on TV with his hat in his hand talking about hes gonna need another $200B on top of the $1 TRILLION defense budget to fight a country with a defense budget of only $10B

NY Times reports what anyone paying attention to the war on Iran already knew: "Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable" The US regime made few plans for Iran's inevitable retaliation and underestimated its capabilities

Militarily, this is such a massacre that it makes Saddam’s Iraq in Gulf War 1 look like a superpower. You have seen 10s of thousands of attack sorties over Iran with essentially no downed aircraft. Unknown to them that their bases are unusable, they dance over the skies of Iran as if they were barrel rolling over Iowa. Missile launches are down to 10-15% of volumes seen in the first couple of days before their launch capacities were severely degraded. The conventional navy is wholly sunk, with any credible threat relying on the emergence of jet-ski-sized boats to disrupt commercial shipping. The regime, those left of it, cling to terrorist-style attacks on oil, hoping markets push Trump to back off sooner than the 4-6 weeks they originally outlined. The IRCG has been reduced to an equivalent of their small guerrilla-terrorist groups, Hezbollah and the Houthis. It’s a turkey shoot and, above all, an embarrassment, no matter how you slice it or try to sell the propaganda.

@KoolKeynes @MaxBlumenthal @AGDugin They're flying FPV drones around US bases in Iraq unbothered and unchallenged and taking out helicopters and how does 500 to 1 matter if they've launched 80 waves of missiles after nearly a month and took out the radars and warning systems of the bases in the first days???

@waltermandarin @joefrancis505 No me equivoqué.

@KoolKeynes @joefrancis505 torturaban mujeres con ratas en la vagina, andá a hablar de moralidad

I was in Buenos Aires 20 years ago today. The protests I saw there made me want to study Argentine history: to understand why the military had killed thousands of people 30 years previously. Fortunately, Argentina is another country now. It will not happen again. Nunca más.

Se equipara la inmoralidad de ambos bandos armados. Uno queriendo voltear el orden democrático y social, y el otro con represión que fue por fuera de canales legales y también democráticos. Pero me parece que para vos había algo de nobleza en la lucha armada y subversiva de los grupos de izquierda. Me equivoco, amigo?

@KoolKeynes @joefrancis505 Te entendí perfecto, equiparaste, si entendieras castellano hubieses entendido, releé de última

Si entendieras inglés, hubieses captado que dije que el accionar militar, sin tribunales, derecho y juicio, estuvo tan mal como el accionar de los participantes de las guerrillas armadas que buscaron voltear el gobierno de Isabela Perón. Después, que llores que un grupo era menos poderoso que el otro es, para efectos de qué bando tiene superioridad moral, absolutamente irrelevante. Se castiga a ambos por igual…

@KoolKeynes @joefrancis505 desde el Estado se desapareció, se violó, se secuestró bebés, se robó, se lanzaron personas vivas al mar. No es justo que le vayas a un extranjero con medias verdades.

@joefrancis505 Sure, I loosely lump all left wing guerrillas together as "communists"...but you're correct, Montoneros, unlike smaller ERP weren't declared communists. But neither was Castro before taking power.

@KoolKeynes I'm critical of the Peronists' role in the events of the 1970s. The communists were less important.

Most people I know that had formative years during the 2000s came out with a skewed view of history (as it was recast in the light of the Chavista push through the Americas). Few recognize to this day that a military gov't that kills without trial AND an armed communist guerrilla movement are equally nefarious...

@KoolKeynes I think it's balanced...

@JMilei @ELCHANGO33 Imaginate intentar explicarle a este crack los conceptos de primera y segunda derivada...good luck

@ELCHANGO33 Puede aumentar todo y bajar la inflación porque esta mide la tasa de variación de precios... por ende si suben pero menos que antes la inflación baja...

LA LUCHA CONTRA LA INFLACIÓN El gráfico muestra que salvo el actual gobierno, todos los restantes dejaron una mayor inflación que la recibida. Esto no significa que el problema de la inflación esté terminado pero está claro que vamos por el buen camino. VLLC!

Capitalism reduced global inequality at an unprecedented level.

Still time for things to escalate in Iran but this is looking like another example of eggheads with a long list of worries that never materialized. I don’t like motivations for this incursion one bit but my goodness is absolutely amazing to see the American military come out and unleash the raw power of our armed forces when they have a clear plan and the authority to act. I might have been a neocon if I knew we could just come in, crack skulls, slaughter bad guys, and help good guys across the world. This is Marvel version of our armed forces I grew up believing in as a child. 🇺🇸

Turkey’s Fidan reveals failed Turkish attempts to stop Iran war • Iran didn’t want to meet Trump in a trilateral format • Tehran also rejected to Istanbul meeting to discuss four dossiers • “Iran should have given something to Trump” middleeasteye.net/news/turkeys-f…

@RWApodcast Cope harder.

You need to be Bukmaxxing, you need to be putting Pantsirs on towers, you need S-300s in ambush positions, you need powerful radars and electronic warfare systems so powerful it makes your eyeballs feel warm. The performance of aerial defences in Russia and Ukraine (the two best AD networks on the planet) has given some people a false impression of air power. Just because the densest network of the most powerful AD systems in the world makes flying in contested space deadly doesn't mean this applies to everywhere else. US air power is still tremendous. The Iranians do not have the luxury of such an AD network, partly because of their insistence to rely almost exclusively on domestic AD systems, and as such SEAD operations are dramatically easier. There is a real chance of Iranian air defences being degraded to such a degree that stand-off munition shortages stop playing a role because cheap and plentiful JDAMs will take over. Though it does seem like the US-Israeli team is experiencing some significant intelligence/target acquisition trouble, at least judging by the footage they are putting out and the fact that expensive stand-off munitions are being used on terror-bombing civilians in Tehran instead of military targets. The Iranians have definitely exceeded my expectations, but don't expect miracles. War is always a gamble and the current gamble is a multi-factor game of Iranian TELs, Iranian missile and drone stocks, Iranian AD capabilities vs US/Israeli interceptor stocks and SEAD success, and some other things. Also, I suspect the bottleneck for the Iranians is neither the number of missiles nor how many TELs they have, but instead the logistics of actually getting the missiles to the launchers. The last-mile problem might be the crucial element here. Drones are the dark horse. They can be launched from almost anywhere and the Iranians are clearly holding back, having used a relatively small number of Shaheds so far. US capeshit and resistard triumphalism are both very early and very misplaced, this game can go a number of different ways and without precise numbers and with the severe lack of footage (and much of it being absolute shit footage of bombing decoys, and, I suspect, degraded in quality on purpose to make up for triple-tapping already destroyed stuff and "blowing up" murals on the ground) it's hard to make predictions.

Underrated factor in why English-speaking countries have especially bad housing crises is their common law systems (adversarial and litigious) vs judge-led civil law systems elsewhere. Makes Anglo planning/permitting systems especially vulnerable to NIMBYs and other objections.

This is journalism.

@BowTiedMara Fake news

% of the population living on less than $6.68 usd/day in 2022 and 2025

@livermoreplus @GiacoDiego @JMilei No.

@GiacoDiego @JMilei Un nuevo 28D. La historia se repite

Señores y señoras, los (Mises + Hayek)^(-1); o sea, los más anti austriacos que se puede conseguir, están en el BCRA de @JMilei.

@fvallejoss Venías bien hasta que hablaste de “restricción de divisas”. Ahí re-confirmaste que seguís siendo la misma analfabeta económica de siempre, como todo Kirchnerista.

Para los que soñamos con una Argentina grande y desarrollada, superando la restricción de divisas, con empleo y futuro para nuestro pueblo, el desarrollo del sector junto con otros también estratégicos (metalurgia, economía del conocimiento) encadenados, es una muy buena noticia.

Aunque muchos de ustedes no lo saben, el último tiempo he estado trabajando y estudiando muchísimo sobre el desarrollo del sector minero. Por eso, no puedo dejar de felicitar al pueblo de Mendoza que, a través de sus representantes, hoy ratificó la DIA de PSJ Cobre Mendocino.

You show gross debt, not net debt, which is much, much lower. This "theory" isn't up for debate really, it's empirically well documented fiscal-monetary dynamics understood by most economists, especially in EM. FTPL is just an asset-pricing approach to the concept formalized by John Cochrane. But bottom line is that there are economic states where the way to lower inflation is not by hiking rates (which augments inflation in such states), but rather by cutting the budget deficit and ensuring debt sustainability. The only thing up for debate is whether the US is in a situation where higher rates can cause inflation via fiscal dominance channels. I believe it is not.

@KoolKeynes @LukeGromen @greg_ip Canada's debt to GDP is not very different than the US. and their deficits during COVID were just as large. Sorry, I don't find anything about this theory interesting or compelling. But feel free to subscribe to it if you wish.

The "affordability crisis" cannot be solved. It is anamalgam of loosely connected complaints ungrounded in macrodata. Was eggs, now beef. Was gas, now electricity. Trump benefited as a candidate, now suffers as president. Same awaits Mamdani. wsj.com/economy/everyo…