NetDEFI

@armaniferrante Do it right. The fruits of many people's labor and their hopes rest on you.

You might think Backpack is better. You might think Backpack is worse. But there's one thing you can't deny. It's different.

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Out of the last 19 weekends: - 10 pumped into Sunday - 4 dumped - 5 had no directional movement Saturdays are usually slow, while late Sunday is when volatility picks up. Every weekend that dumped led to further $BTC downside during the following week, and every weekend that pumped eventually reversed.

$BTC Price making lower highs since $98K. Yet retail is making higher lows in Long Positioning since the January capitulation. They averaged down at $88K. Again at $78K. Again at $68K. Getting more bullish with every leg down. Every peak in their Long Positioning over this period has been followed by a flush. They reload, price drops, they reload again, price drops again. The pattern hasn't broken once. 72% of retail accounts are long right now. Into a descending trendline with no structural reversal. Either they're catching the bottom perfectly for the first time ever, or they're building the liquidation pool for another leg down.

The end of profitable airdrop farming ≠ the end of Perp DEXs Let’s separate two narratives that people keep mixing up: 🔸 The airdrop farming narrative 🔸 The perpetual DEX adoption narrative I think the first one is getting exhausted. The second one is just getting started. 1️⃣ The market reality (CEX vs DEX, in numbers) - CEXs still dominate ~85–90%+ of total crypto derivatives volume - Binance alone does ~$40B+ per day in perps Total CEX derivatives: $300B–$400B+ daily (depending on the day) Meanwhile: - Perp DEXs do roughly $15B–$25B daily in normal conditions Even in peak moments, DEXs are still a minority of total volume Hyperliquid, the #1 DEX, does ~$5–6B daily → still tiny vs Binance alone 👉 Translation: the addressable market for perp DEXs is massive. They don’t need hype. They just need flow to migrate. 2️⃣ The airdrop farming trade is overcrowded Look at what’s happening: - New perp DEXs launching on every chain - Most compete on points and incentives, not product quality - A huge % of “users” are actually farmers, not organic traders This creates: - Inflated activity - Short-term usage And a lot of mercenary capital that leaves once incentives end We’ve seen this movie many times in DeFi. 3️⃣ The real top signal: the “excuse phase” A narrative usually doesn’t die when returns go down. It dies when excuses start: “Market conditions were bad” “Too many people farmed it” “The distribution wasn’t fair” “This one was an exception” “Next one will be better” That’s rarely an exception. That’s the new normal kicking in. 4️⃣ Why Hyperliquid is the perfect contrast Hyperliquid: - Had 2 point campaigns - Used a simple, linear distribution - No exotic rules - No hidden mechanics And still became one of the biggest airdrops in crypto history. That wasn’t magic. That was: - Right timing - Explosive growth - And an underfarmed narrative As more DEXs launch, with worse market conditions and way more farmers, the average airdrop will NOT cover: - Trading losses - Fees - Opportunity cost - Time spent farming When people start losing money net-net → the complaints explode → the meta is over. 5️⃣ The key distinction most people miss ✅ Profitable airdrop farming can die ❌ That does NOT mean perp DEXs die These are two completely different things. Even today: 🔸 DEXs = ~5–15% of perp volume most of the time 🔸 CEXs = ~85–90%+ of perp volume So the upside for real adoption is still huge, even if farming returns go to zero. 6️⃣ Why structural migration still makes sense Long-term forces pushing users from CEXs → DEXs: - More regulation and restrictions on CEXs - Custody and counterparty risk awareness - Demand for permissionless access - Better on-chain UX and execution (Hyperliquid shows this clearly) - More capital living natively on-chain But let’s be honest: Users won’t go to “random chain #58 perp DEX”. They will concentrate in: - The most liquid venues - The safest and simplest UX - The platforms that feel CEX-like in performance - The top winners (Hyperliquid + maybe a few others) Liquidity and trust always concentrate. 7️⃣ The most likely outcome 🪙 The airdrop farming gold rush fades 😤 The complaint cycle increases as returns drop 🧟 Many low-quality perp DEXs lose activity after incentives end 🏆 A few winners keep growing based on real usage, not points In short: The speculative meta dies. The infrastructure stays. 8️⃣ Final thought Perpetual DEXs are no longer a toy narrative. They’re a real, growing slice of the derivatives market. But the era of: “Just farm points and get paid” is probably close to over. That’s not bearish. That’s what maturation looks like.

@SmartDropFarmer You have a good strategy! Do you have enough discipline to execute it?

My plan to accumulate Bitcoin while farming with stables Right now, my stable liquidity is split roughly like this: ~50% in DeFi / treasury strategies ~50% in prediction markets + perpetuals protocols This post explains how I plan to rotate that liquidity into BTC over time. 1) My BTC buy zones These are the main areas I’m watching: 🔸62.5k – 60k 🔸55k – 50k 🔸45k – 40k And I keep dry powder in case we ever see 35k – 30k (I don’t really expect it, but I plan for all scenarios.) If you currently have 0 BTC, I think starting around current levels (~67k) with ~10% makes sense, just to get some exposure. (I've already did) 2) Allocation plan This is how I distribute the rest: - 15% in 62.5k–60k - 20% in 55k–50k - 25% in 45k–40k 30% reserved for extreme downside (35k–30k) Simple. No overcomplication. 3) How I execute inside each zone I don’t buy in one single order. Inside each zone, I split entries every ~$500–$1,000: - Avoid betting everything on one level - Smooth execution - Reduce timing risk 4) Where the liquidity comes from First buys come from my DeFi / treasury stables. Once that part is used, I start rotating capital out of other protocols. The first one I’d reduce: Polymarket. I’ve already farmed it for a while, and I think the remaining farming upside is limited, so it’s my first source of liquidity to increase my BTC stack. After that, I’d start pulling from perpetuals protocols, in order of what I’ve already farmed the most. 5) If we ever get close to ~30k If we reach that area, I think the R:R becomes very attractive not only for BTC, but also for alts like: - ETH - SOL - HYPE - Even BNB I already have some exposure, but I don’t plan to increase it unless we reach those zones. 6) A reality check: Liquidity is not infinite If you have enough cash and don’t need to unwind anything: Congrats, you managed this cycle very well. For the rest of us (me included): At some point, we’ll need to rotate out of farming positions to free liquidity. That’s just part of real portfolio management. 7) About DCA and expectations For me, a DCA that never fully completes is a successful DCA. If we never reach lower zones and I stay with stables: - That’s fine. - Those stables keep working in protocols. If I receive any airdrops between now and those levels, unless it’s a special case, I’ll likely convert them to stables to strengthen my liquidity buffer. Final note Again, this is just my personal framework. Not something to copy blindly. Just a reference to help you think and design your own plan. This is NOT financial advice.

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1.The Private Lending Crisis as a Hidden Cause of the Decline A Grayscale chart shows a tight correlation between software stocks and Bitcoin since early 2024. This relationship points to the shared fundamental forces driving both markets over the past two years.

@jessepollak @jessepollak how do we get Base app to integrate with @WalletConnect Pay so base users can pay via our payments platform?

Help shape WalletConnect Pay by participating in a product research survey. We’re building crypto payments - and we want to deliver the best UX. - For WCT + stablecoin holders - Discord role + WCT for meaningful insights Join the AMA to learn more! x.com/i/spaces/1MYxN…

4."Bitcoin has a strong correlation with IT stocks due to their common source of funding—private debt." The sector has been under stress since 2025, which explains the deviation of the cryptocurrency price from global liquidity charts,” notes Dan, head of research at Coinbureau.

3.Investor concerns are heightened by the development of AI systems. The emergence of advanced models and automated coding tools could reduce demand for traditional software. This threatens companies' regular revenues, leading to an increased risk of loan defaults.

Bitcoin Option Skew is in Deep Bear Market Territory. Skew measures the implied volatility of Puts vs. Calls. The higher the skew, the more buyers are paying for Puts (downside) relative to Calls (upside). The higher the skew, the more people are willing to pay for downside protection. The last time it was this high, was during FTX / Luna / 3AC collapse. Fear is still permeating through.

@TonyResearch_ I share your opinion.

🚨 $BTC PRICE ACTION SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 12 MONTHS! You are NOT ready for this: 1. Right now we are in a sideways consolidation phase. 2. Next, we will see a final impulsive move down. 3. The end of the bear trend will be marked by a Falling Wedge pattern that breaks to the upside. 4. This will start a new bullish trend. Reminder: a new 4-year cycle has started – 2026-2027-2028-2029. In 2029, $BTC will set its final ATH and that will complete the cycle. TURN ON NOTIFICATIONS, FOLLOW ME AND BOOKMARK THIS!

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