$AMPX, my favorite chart.
Currently long:
$BE, avg cost $202.12
$NBIS, avg cost $147.23
$UAMY, avg cost $12.14
$APLD, avg cost $32.92
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Confluence Research
619 posts
Confluence Research
@Krisprollstrade
Decade-plus Trader.
Katılım Eylül 2021
173 Takip Edilen1K Takipçiler
There are moments when the world briefly aligns.
When it does, a handful of people step into outcomes that look impossible to everyone else.
We call it luck.
This is the structure I spent years working on.
Link in comments 👇
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@confluenceresearch/note/p-196224453?r=58m4uc" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@confluenceres…
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@confluenceresearch/note/p-195727521?r=58m4uc" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@confluenceres…
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@RealSimpleAriel Yeah, S&P is going from 500 to 550, and Nasdaq 100 is going to 110 tomorrow.
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4/20 tomorrow. Do we really think stocks are going higher or was the news already baked in? 🤣 $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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Confluence Research retweetledi
The past several months have been a great crash course on why price > everything.
Tons of doom and gloom, headlines every 30 minutes, whipsaw action, and ultimately nothing has really changed macro-wise since the bottom. The Strait is still closed, ceasefire lasted not more than 12 hours, and now diplomats can't even have a conversation without some spat.
But here's the market now at all time highs when the fundamental issues that drove the market lower are still the same.
Macro news should never have a place in your process or decision making, unless you're a breaking news trader. Price action, however, should be at the forefront of it.
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In life, as in markets, truth and reality are not the same thing.
Truth is what should matter.
Reality is what actually moves the system.
War is bad. People die. That is truth.
Yet war still happens because reality is ruled by power, fear, survival, ideology, retaliation, and incentives.
Smoking destroys your health. That is truth.
Yet people still smoke because reality is ruled by addiction, stress, habit, and environment.
Saving and investing build wealth. That is truth.
Yet many people remain financially trapped because reality is ruled by impulse, comfort, status, and short-term reward.
The pattern is everywhere.
There is the truth of how things should work.
And there is the reality of how people actually behave.
That gap explains why the right decision is often not the popular one.
Because popularity reflects incentives and comfort, not truth.
It explains why the obvious answer is often not the profitable one.
When something is obvious, it is already priced, crowded, and neutralized.
It explains why being correct is not the same as being effective.
Outcomes are driven by timing, constraints, beliefs and behavior, not isolated truth.
Markets are no different.
Fundamentals are truth.
But price is reality.
And price is not set by truth.
Price is set by people.
People with positions.
People with beliefs.
People with fear.
People with leverage.
People with deadlines.
People with incentives.
People with ego.
So markets are not a truth machine.
They are a behavior machine.
They do not reward what is morally correct, intellectually elegant, or fundamentally obvious.
They reward understanding how people behave.
That is why a weak company can keep rising.
That is why a strong company can keep falling.
That is why something can be obviously overvalued for longer than most people can stay solvent.
Because truth does not move price by itself.
Truth needs a transmission mechanism.
It needs behavior to express it.
It needs flows, positioning, liquidity, and urgency.
It needs reality to finally catch up.
And reality often lags.
Sometimes dramatically.
That is where most people fail.
They confuse being right with understanding timing.
They confuse facts with forces.
They confuse what should happen with what will happen.
But the system does not care what should happen.
It only cares what people are doing now.
That is the real edge.
Not just knowing the truth.
Seeing reality as the outcome of constraints, beliefs, and incentives in action.
That applies in markets.
It applies in business.
It applies in politics.
It applies in relationships.
It applies in life.
Truth tells you what is correct.
Reality tells you what happens.
And the people who win are the ones who know the difference.
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I’ve started teaching a trading course 2 weeks ago, and from the beginning I’ve been filtering who could even attend.
Not based on experience.
Not based on how much they already knew.
Based on something much more important: the way they think.
A few conversations are enough to tell.
How they talk about uncertainty.
How attached they are to opinions.
How badly they need to be right.
I had to exclude 2 people and keep only 1.
And that already tells you a lot about trading.
Because trading is not really a knowledge problem.
It is a mindset problem.
Most people think they want to learn markets.
What they really want is a story that feels convincing.
They want fundamentals to explain everything.
They want smart voices to tell them what comes next.
They want research to give them certainty.
But markets do not reward opinions.
They reward positioning.
Price is not telling you what should happen.
It is telling you what capital is doing now.
That is also why trading is so hard to teach.
Because you are asking someone to stop forming opinions, stop chasing narratives, stop needing to be right, and start trusting what the market is actually saying.
That is not a technical adjustment.
That is a rewiring.
Most people never make it there.
They keep collecting information, opinions, and “insight,” and mistake that for progress.
In reality, that is often the exact thing keeping them stuck.
At some point, you understand this clearly:
The market does not care about your thesis.
It does not care how intelligent you are.
It does not care how good the story sounds.
It only reflects one thing: who is buying, who is selling, and at what scale.
Everything else is noise.
Excitement hurts you.
Attachment blinds you.
Ego ruins you.
This job requires indifference.
Not because it is cold.
Because clarity is impossible without it.
That is why it takes years.
Not to learn charts.
To unlearn yourself.
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Confluence Research retweetledi
My Fundamental thesis on $AA (Aluminum).
This is not a buy recommendation. I'm a technical trader and will position only if there is a technical confluence.
Link in comments 👇
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My last article about the future of AI.
Link in comments 👇
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When a strategy works, it does more than produce results.
It creates identity.
It creates conviction.
It creates a prison.
Success does not just reward the mind. It trains it to worship the same model that worked yesterday.
Success → reinforcement → specialization → rigidity → blindness
Every win deepens the same pattern.
Every reward makes the brain more loyal to the past.
Every advantage gets harder to abandon because capital, reputation, and ego all get tied to it.
That is the trap.
At some point, the expert is no longer asking, “What is true now?”
He is asking, “How do I protect what once made me great?”
And that changes everything.
Change starts to feel like:
admitting error,
losing status,
destroying a brand,
killing a cash flow.
So the mind does what minds do best when threatened. It rationalizes. It delays. It explains away the new regime.
But markets, industries, and power structures do not reward loyalty to old success. They punish it.
What worked in one environment becomes a liability in the next.
The real danger is not failure.
It is overfitting to success.
The strongest players are often the slowest to adapt because they are the most invested in being right.
That is why disruption rarely comes from the center.
It comes from outsiders, generalists, and opportunists who are not defending a legacy.
They are only asking one question:
What works now?
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@madaznfootballr market is always changing. You have to look into adapting to what is working in this current environment. 2020 & 2021 there was tons of liquidity and easy to scalp everyday and grow account insane levels. I mean do you really think you have had an edge for the last 4 years?
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Gave back the big $UGRO gains and then some. Never been more frustrated with trading in my career. Can't get any consistency going and it's really driving me insane. Between the shitty locate situation and lack of quality plays, I'm running out of answers...😥😥
madaz@madaznfootballr
P/L: -$43.4K😟 One of those days where I should not have traded today. Couldn't sleep last night at all and still tried to make something happen and unsurprisingly the wheels came off quick. Blew up at the open with a bad long on $FCUV thinking 12s daily after 9 break and got dumped on and had no locates to recover. That admittedly tilted me bad and started revenge trading $SMX short especially not having locates on anything else. Was way too early and stopped near the top after it broke that 17 daily wick for a major blow up loss. Had a backside trade but got chopped and totally minimized. Definitely a great example of how NOT to trade today in every sense of the word. $AIXI late day longs. No balls to size up after huge move already made. $ELAB $USO
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Long $AA on the breakout. Average cost $68.54. Thesis below.
Confluence Research@Krisprollstrade
My Fundamental thesis on $AA (Aluminum). This is not a buy recommendation. I'm a technical trader and will position only if there is a technical confluence. Link in comments 👇
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@confluenceresearch/note/p-192834946?r=58m4uc" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@confluenceres…
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