Denis Kutman

791 posts

Denis Kutman

Denis Kutman

@KutmanDenis

Retail investor focusing on emerging macroeconomic trends with a particular focus on commodities including gold, silver, uranium as well as carbon credits.

Ottawa, Ontario Katılım Haziran 2020
385 Takip Edilen139 Takipçiler
Josh Crumb 🆔++
Josh Crumb 🆔++@JoshCrumb·
We are not beholden to the whims of any specific bullion banks, vault operators, or local HFT market makers, etc. I’d argue that we are not only most modern, but the most truly independent exchange and clearinghouse that exists. …The integrity of the physical market, true price discovery and risk management is our calling, nothing else.
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Josh Crumb 🆔++
Josh Crumb 🆔++@JoshCrumb·
The Abaxx #Silver contract is a big deal. Launches Friday. It’s 4-9s (COMEX is 3-9), industrial grade for Asian manufacturing, and a better arb center (inventory flows) for offshore China than shipping bulky metal around the world (see Russ’ comment below, he just spent the week in HK where they’re very excited for our contract). Abaxx worked with a major vault provider on brand new infrastructure for this market and materials to flow in and out (in a modern way :) We’ll also have a real-time, in-vault spot market (with real time digital title transfer services) ramping up soon. Abaxx will have the most modern physical market in the world for Silver and #Gold, in the best location 🇸🇬 #29ers $abxx #OwnItAll
Russell Robertson Abaxx CBDO@ru55rob

Historically Hong Kong is a hub for silver bars and when the basis risk widens (the arb) then Asian bullion traders would have to offload into New York which costs!! Now when that arb opens they have @abaxx_exchange silver futures for convenience and cost efficiency. We love a game changer 😎 @abaxx_tech

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Denis Kutman
Denis Kutman@KutmanDenis·
@JoshCrumb @JoeRaia5 @JoshCrumb Love the uplist! Let’s get that done! Also love the turning down of acquisition offer from competitors 🙂 This made my weekend!
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Josh Crumb 🆔++
Josh Crumb 🆔++@JoshCrumb·
A lot of mine faces opened up and we have people on all of them. An interesting mix of imminent and longer term milestones here (most look like they’re within the next ~12mo though), directionally correct. Not enough on LNG, MarketOS or Agents++ though, we got more mucking from those faces. Plan to make the ~45 day period between calls feel like a six month later update on progress. Anyway, we still cookin’, meltin’ GPUs #MayDays Human capital >> Financial Capital #29ers $ABXX
Josh Crumb 🆔++ tweet media
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Stephen Stapczynski
Stephen Stapczynski@SStapczynski·
The US and Iran fail to reach a deal after marathon talks in Pakistan ⚠️ 👀 All eyes will be on the European gas market, which for the first time will open early in Asia on Monday (in 19 hours) TTF is becoming a 21-hour market bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Denis Kutman
Denis Kutman@KutmanDenis·
@JoshCrumb Are you suggesting that you are willing to consider a strategic investment at a valuation of 2-2.5B? With a 1M+ short position, a significant amount of potential news flow to come and rapidly growing volumes, I would suggest it may be better to wait a couple of quarters?
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Josh Crumb 🆔++
Josh Crumb 🆔++@JoshCrumb·
I’ve sat in front of +$1T in PM equity capital over the past two days in Boston and NY (🙏 Robert Friedland & Jeff Currie, Cantor for the support), and the 400+ tuned into our conf call last week… …A few rough thoughts and conversations: • We are “investing” in a global scale futures exchange + clearinghouse for a 1mm ADV market, minimum (OPEX losses for 6 years in developing contracts, markets & customer development, a clearinghouse, tech, liquidity fly wheel, etc); but none of that shows up as a real tangible asset on our balance sheet (more about the ‘goofy mining engineer’s’ audacious approach below) — obviously newcomers get confused by the market cap vs historical rev…then at the same time understand that when [not if] the onboarding and milestones keep checking off, this can be worth substantially, substantially more with minimum additional capital #WorldBuildersOrBust • Conversations obviously night & day different now that volumes are growing significantly (and will likely compound exponentially for years to come), even though from an internal perspective almost nothing has changed in our pitch, our process, our products, our own self-expectations for half a decade #PlanYourMineMineYourPlan • Given the war (“Don’t mention the war!” -Monty Python), A LOT of detail on how Abaxx is building “the Federal Reserve of Molecules”, where the clearinghouse becomes a ‘Quantity Guarantee’ of commodities, which is far more important than a paper/survey ‘Price Guarantee’ for counterparty risk (again, major disconnect between the vision, service and scale of what Abaxx is investing in versus the ‘but wut revs & assets, bro?’ financials…so far!) #LetsGetPhysical • We have an #OwnerOperator mentality when it comes to dilution (🤢), will obviously want more capital on our balance sheet for the clearinghouse (even though working cap is plenty okay for a few more transformational quarters ahead); have global ambitions for our tech that I have kept in check and back burner for 6yrs and don’t want to dilute before it’s understood/valued, but always talking to strategics and creative expansion ideas / investors when price is right (2/2.5B?) #29ers • I’m not focused on break even (it’s a point in our network growth curve that will come and go in a blink of a trading session) — we should be spendvesting waaay more on leveraging our world class team and infrastructure (a business with the best people, operating leverage and multiples in all of finance). The only equation I think about is Fx(spendvesting in winning markets vs cost of dilution) • There are only ~12 global scale future exchanges (+1mm ADV), but I only really consider two as competitors in the way I think about the world. Both highly respected and profitable, highly formidable and effectively founder led. ..but those ‘founders‘ will be in a different boat than me in 5 to 10yrs, and the world I’m investing in looks VERY different in 10yrs (the world looks VERY different in 12 months). #WeComing (• What do I do in my “spare time”? I wrote a whitepaper/thesis on the future of computing this past weekend; Abaxx will not only be fully agentic_.md, and full of skills_.md for developing and launching new products and sales/client support etc over the next few quarters, but I might just have invented the “soverign computing stack” — maybe the ID++ tech stack for the future of ‘Bloomberg terminals’ if not all computing) #PrivacyEngineering 🆔++ • We invest in solving big problems with big payoff business models, collecting every under-priced option that we can along the way in our approach to spendvesting. We #ThinkDifferent, we like ”hot dog stand markets” that the oligopolies consider two small for the next few quarters; we will put 5yrs into a chance of long tail volume/rev streams that solves problems for our clients, +checks in the mail years from now • We will keep investing in people (& agents) to do this Human Captial >> Finacial Captial #29ers $ABXX
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Denis Kutman
Denis Kutman@KutmanDenis·
@saratogaturf @GuyChase9 @Creatorfirst81 Counter the broader market sell off with the upcoming catalysts that could occur in the near term: uplisting, addition to more index funds, continued on-boarding and volume growth, launch of silver contract, etc.
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🙄🤣@saratogaturf·
@GuyChase9 @Creatorfirst81 Their only shot now is an overall market collapse. Which I’m not even sure that will affect abxx as much as the general market. It’s not part of any large exchange or ETF’s. It’s mostly held by institutional longs and retail 💎 hands. It’s going to end in tears for these guys.
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Guy Chase
Guy Chase@GuyChase9·
ABXX Short Position for Canadian trading...Not surprised its an INCREASE as they hammer bids to try and get another selloff as we near the all time high. Every day they counter the buying by bidwacking it back. In a day or two we will see the US ABXXF short position and totals.
Guy Chase tweet media
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Sergio Chapa
Sergio Chapa@SergioChapa·
🇺🇸 "Over the last seven or eight years, there's been a trillion dollars invested in natural gas infrastructure around the world. They need a reliable supply. They need a stable price signal." -- Cheniere Energy CEO Jack Fusco #CeraWeek #LNG #ONGT #NatGas #OOTT #Shale #Houston
Sergio Chapa tweet media
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Denis Kutman
Denis Kutman@KutmanDenis·
@JoshCrumb Do you expect an increase in the GOM contract trading volume given the shift that will occur with countries looking to shift their oil purchases to the US?
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Josh Crumb 🆔++
Josh Crumb 🆔++@JoshCrumb·
Yes, we will keep seeing step changes in volume (non-linear) as new nodes on the network onboard. Liquidity begets liquidity when you have strong (ie the best) underlying contracts, until one day you become a matter of best execution, and become the benchmark that sucks in all of the liquidity. We don’t even have our FBOT-related, or Trayport related network volume onboard yet, or any bank FCMs, or new contracts like Silver and weather etc (which are all getting close of course). That’s why I say to watch the 6mo over 6mo for next few years (decade?) for compounding growth #29ers #BlackholeLiquidity
Joseph Metcalf@JosephTMetcalf

@JoshCrumb @marcuzzi_n 14,779 lots so far today. This is a significant/material increase over last week and the prior months volumes and it looks like it’s sticking. 3rd day in a row with high record breaking volumes. I’ll put some % gain analysis out this weekend.

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Denis Kutman
Denis Kutman@KutmanDenis·
@he_mowz @JoshCrumb $abxx is uniquely positioned to take advantage of the regional bifurcation that is going around the world.
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Robert
Robert@he_mowz·
I keep reading oil prices are $150 in Asia even when we read that Brent is $115 So my question is when are we getting a Singapore oil contract @JoshCrumb ?
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Denis Kutman
Denis Kutman@KutmanDenis·
@JoshCrumb @JoshCrumb From your perspective, given the current geopolitical climate, is there more regional oil contracts that are necessary that currently don’t exist or does everyone continue to use variations of Brent?
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Denis Kutman
Denis Kutman@KutmanDenis·
@marcuzzi_n @Greenacres1000 What happens if the LNG producers on one side of those physically deliverable LNG contracts declare force majeure and cannot deliver as required?
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Nick
Nick@marcuzzi_n·
“Bullish news” structurally aligned with #abaxx thesis: •Supply shock → volatility •Volatility → need for hedging •Hedging → need for liquid futures •Broken contracts → need for trusted benchmarks •Physical stress → demand for physical delivery contracts
Yet another commodity guy@tleilax___

QATARENERGY CEO TELLS REUTERS: TWO OUT OF 14 OF OUR LNG TRAINS AND ONE OUT OF TWO OF OUR GAS-TO-LIQUIDS (GTL) FACILITY WERE DAMAGED IN THE ATTACKS WE WILL BE LOSING 12.8 MILLION TONS PER YEAR OF LNG FOR THREE TO FIVE YEARS, AROUND 17% OF QATAR’S EXPORT LNG WE MAY HAVE TO DECLARE FORCE MAJEURE ON LONG-TERM CONTRACTS FOR UP TO FIVE YEARS FOR LNG SUPPLIES TO ITALY, BELGIUM, KOREA AND CHINA

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Denis Kutman
Denis Kutman@KutmanDenis·
@JoshCrumb @Rtsaathoff @abaxx_exchange @JoshCrumb What are the implications of the current war on your physically deliverable LNG contracts of the producers are unable to deliver on account of a force majeure such as their LNG production facilities being damaged in the war?
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Josh Crumb 🆔++
Josh Crumb 🆔++@JoshCrumb·
Jeff Currie has been commenting a lot lately on the difference between physical markets (spot premiums and physical benchmarks) and paper markets (index benchmarks traded by autoreflexive financial positioning algos). @abaxx_exchange is the one cleared futures exchange in the world focused solely on physical prices (buyer & seller of last resort spot market convergence in price), and real risk management of real things. Most of Boca was focused on scaling the strip-mining operation of retail gambling and tokenized leverage-bucket shops (bringing CFD perps from illegal offshore markets onshore ‘cause “innovation”). This difference in vision, focus and passion will make all the difference in years to come. We coming. We got this. #29ers $ABXX #Gold #LNG #Oil
Josh Crumb 🆔++ tweet media
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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
With Abaxx hitting 10k lots again on their gold contract, they have passed MCX (India) in terms of liquidity. This places Abaxx as the third most liquid gold contract in the world if they can keep this up. Only trailing SHFE and Comex. But SHFE has limited access to foreign investors so really Abaxx is the second most liquid gold futures market open to everyone. In the same way people talk oil in terms of Brent or WTI, it's only a matter of time until gold is talked about in terms of Comex and Abaxx. This is one of the biggest marketing opportunities out there for Abaxx. Fracturing in the prices between New York Futures and London spot will only further highlight Abaxx for its efficiencies that it is building and make them the topic of conversation. Really will get exciting in the coming months if they can keep up this momentum.
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Denis Kutman
Denis Kutman@KutmanDenis·
@thewatsonview @JoshCrumb Ah okay. Their quarterly burn has gone up significantly but that makes sense given that they are ramping up on both the exchange and tech side of things.
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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
@KutmanDenis @JoshCrumb depends on whats trading. i think the number is around 30k to 40k. they need 25+ million in revenue USD
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Josh Crumb 🆔++
Josh Crumb 🆔++@JoshCrumb·
I’m live with the team asking exactly that now. …this space is moving beyond lighting speed, but we have exactly what the world needs. Not just sandboxing for CLI bots, they’re solving runtime isolation, we’re solving identity + provenance + trust layer, which is the harder problem long term
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Josh Crumb 🆔++
Josh Crumb 🆔++@JoshCrumb·
Yep. Also helps when your company spent 6 years working on more robust identity, privacy and data supply chain protocols, built backend infrastructure perfectly suited for agentic work, markets, etc. 🆔++ MarketOS by Abaxx is the trust stack required for agents to semi-autonomously operate highly regulated markets #29ers $ABXX
Brian Roemmele@BrianRoemmele

“Every software company in the world needs to have a Claw strategy" - Jensen Huang, Nvidia Indeed. This and more.

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Denis Kutman
Denis Kutman@KutmanDenis·
@JoshCrumb @Rtsaathoff @JoshCrumb any initial feedback you can provide on the pace of on-boarding following the FBOT? Has the current volatility in commodity markets increased the level of urgency at all in the ongoing on-boarding processes?
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Josh Crumb 🆔++
Josh Crumb 🆔++@JoshCrumb·
Jeff Currie with another good segment on Bloomberg this morning. #OilVolatility #OOTT At Abaxx, we’re working on some exciting new developments with Jeff as we open a London office in Q2 — ramping up Abaxx research, sales, product development, our market data business and beyond. GS was a long time thought leader in Commodities Research, not only are we pulling the band back together through Abaxx, but we’ll be playing some brand new genres as well. $ABXX #29ers
Josh Crumb 🆔++ tweet media
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Josh Crumb 🆔++
Josh Crumb 🆔++@JoshCrumb·
My job as an engineer-entrepreneur is to look forward 5-10years and make an infrastructure investment, even when others see it as too far out or too difficult. At @abaxx_exchange we believed that an #LNG “buyer/seller of last resort” market was absolutely needed, a place to hedge price risk AND #QuantityRisk, where a central clearinghouse guarantees the performance of a futures market purchase all the way through to delivery. So we built it. The only one in the world. It’s still growing and will be there for the next crisis (frankly, if the banks and capital markets didn’t sit on their hands with no vision we’d have it with more connectivity and more liquidity already, the clients have always been there demanding it — but the right people absolutely see it now and we will succeed). The western world has chased paper markets (cash settled indexes, token abstractions, cfd gambling) at the expense of risk management for physical things for too long. That’s what we’re here to resolve. #29ers #LetsGetPhysical $ABXX
Josh Crumb 🆔++ tweet media
Stephen Stapczynski@SStapczynski

The LNG market isn't prepared for the world's biggest export plant to be offline for a long time

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Denis Kutman
Denis Kutman@KutmanDenis·
@adamtaggart @MelMattison1 I personally could care less what the headline of your podcast episode is Adam. I listen because your interview style is great and the caliber and knowledge of your guests is top notch.
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Mel Mattison
Mel Mattison@MelMattison1·
If you want to listen to a bunch of people tell you how the markets are screwed and we are heading for a collapse, please don't listen to me. Rather than be a doomer, I prefer to be correct. Guys like @adamtaggart put out videos month after month, as is undeniably shown by the screenshot below, yet they are completely wrong. IF you love doom porn and want to hear about the S&P heading to 5,000, don't listen to me. If you want to make money and be right, then please click on this recent episode I did with Marty.
Mel Mattison tweet media
TFTC@TFTC21

TFTC 701 w/ @MelMattison1: "Venezuela has more oil than Iran and Iraq combined. This is a total resource grab and Trump's not apologizing for it. The rules-based order is done." We discuss: ⚡️ Venezuela oil grab ⚡️ Bitcoin to $150K ⚡️ Multipolar world order

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