Watson

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Watson

Watson

@thewatsonview

finding the hidden gems. For Research Reports on Minehub ( $MHUB ) and Abaxx ( $ABXX ) see @theSherlockView

Katılım Mart 2025
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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
My latest article (20-30 min) on Minehub $MHUB and how their partnership with Abaxx $ABXX will unlock significant capital velocity with faster settling, lower margins, and reducing fraud by being a single source of truth across the supply chain.
Sherlock@thesherlockview

x.com/i/article/1965…

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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
And another aspect of silver and gold is the ETFs for Abaxx $ABXX. The total AUM for the biggest gold and silver ETFs is ~$340 billion. Fees generated for these ETFs is just over ~$1 billion. Warehousing costs ~$250 million leaving ~$750 million on the table for management fees. Abaxx doesn’t have the licenses to launch ETFs (yet?), but they could partner with a company who does, let's say Alta who just happens to be working with Abaxx already on digital title use cases in the May 7th PR “one of Asia’s leading regulated brokerages, securities exchanges, and fund management platforms, to advance the use of money market fund shares as T+0 collateral for margin at Abaxx Clearing”. They could possibly undercut the current ETFs by $250 million and split fees generate with Alta (50/50?). That could generate upwards of ~$250 million for Abaxx. I honestly have no experience here so just wishful thinking. But Abaxx has the opportunity to improve on the ETFs. SLV ETF for example has a clause that in custodian negligence or fraud they give you cash value at time of fraud (see photo). Aka, in a real black swan event they discover fraud occurred 10 years ago, they give you the cash value based on prices 10 years ago. But if Alta were to launch an ETF backed by Abaxx’s digital title, they could give possibly give better ownership guarantees to owners of the ETF with improved fraud monitoring? This could maybe let them charge even more and collect upwards of ~$500 million? Hunch though is they will want to undercut prices and offer better legal and ownership guarantees that the current ETFs cannot provide making the $250 million more likely. At 12x, that would justify a $3 billion MC, ~2x from here on ETF management fees if they capture the whole market (they won't probably won't though?). In Asia there doesn’t seem to be any competition in silver on the ETFs. There does appear to be a couple new gold ETFs (one launched two months ago) so the market is ripe for competition there while competing with US based ETFs. To be clear, this is wishful thinking. Maybe they don’t get 50/50 and get much lower fees, and challenging the big ETF funds will be very difficult. The purpose though is to highlight that Abaxx has many directions to generate revenue and how Digital title unlocks new revenue pathways, not just in exchange revenues.
Watson tweet media
James Duade@James_Duade

For a ballpark DCF analysis on the valuation of Abaxx's recently listed silver futures contract (list this past Friday) I had a conversation with GROK (see below). Based on my prompt parameters GROK came up with a DCF of $436.7M USD. x.com/i/grok/share/3… The parameters I used were that Abaxx would have the following market capture of the physical market per year: 2026: 2% 2027: 10% 2028: 25% 2029: 40% 2030: 50% 2031-2040: 50% 2041: 50% (termination year for DCF purposes) I assumed that the physical market was 1.2 Billion troy ounces, and would grow at a CAGR of 3% per year. Abaxx's contract is 1,000 troy ounces. Contract fees were set at $2.50 USD and not inflated. A termination Price to Sales multiple of 11x was used based off of the 2041 figures. Profit margin was set at 50%, and discount rate was set at 10%. As is typical for futures, it was assumed that contract churn was 50x physical. That said it is not uncommon for silver to be 100-300x physical. For good measure, I manually re-created these assumptions in Excel just to double check GROK, and came out with essentially the same figure (my DCF was $435.5M USD FWIW--see images below). In short, the DCF for Silver adds about $10 USD per share to the NPV model...that said, it's worth noting that there is a lot of potential for further value when you consider the potential synergies with Silver SPOT markets and Silver Digital Title. Food for thought on this long weekend!

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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
@James_Duade Crazy to think silver alone could already justify 23% of Abaxx’s current MC
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James Duade
James Duade@James_Duade·
For a ballpark DCF analysis on the valuation of Abaxx's recently listed silver futures contract (list this past Friday) I had a conversation with GROK (see below). Based on my prompt parameters GROK came up with a DCF of $436.7M USD. x.com/i/grok/share/3… The parameters I used were that Abaxx would have the following market capture of the physical market per year: 2026: 2% 2027: 10% 2028: 25% 2029: 40% 2030: 50% 2031-2040: 50% 2041: 50% (termination year for DCF purposes) I assumed that the physical market was 1.2 Billion troy ounces, and would grow at a CAGR of 3% per year. Abaxx's contract is 1,000 troy ounces. Contract fees were set at $2.50 USD and not inflated. A termination Price to Sales multiple of 11x was used based off of the 2041 figures. Profit margin was set at 50%, and discount rate was set at 10%. As is typical for futures, it was assumed that contract churn was 50x physical. That said it is not uncommon for silver to be 100-300x physical. For good measure, I manually re-created these assumptions in Excel just to double check GROK, and came out with essentially the same figure (my DCF was $435.5M USD FWIW--see images below). In short, the DCF for Silver adds about $10 USD per share to the NPV model...that said, it's worth noting that there is a lot of potential for further value when you consider the potential synergies with Silver SPOT markets and Silver Digital Title. Food for thought on this long weekend!
James Duade tweet mediaJames Duade tweet mediaJames Duade tweet media
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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
$ABXX.NE not a shitco but 50x+ upside. They built a new clearinghouse and exchange for commodities using a new technology that will enable 24/7 trading and T+0 settling. At the same time they are targeting fractured commodities supply chains and bringing physical futures markets for those that need to improve hedging and risk management. One great example is a colocated gold and silver futures market in Singapore at the source of Asian demand. No more dealing with Comex and LBMA shenanigans. The same technology though can be extended to things such as artwork, stocks and so much more. They can basically unleash a new Swift network when they are really running. So basically owning Abaxx will eventually be like owning the new swift network or the Amazon of commodities.
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Prepared Remarks
Prepared Remarks@P_Remarks·
Name a compelling non AI long that’s <$10B mkt cap but has 100%+ upside (aka shitco)
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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
@abaxx_tech imagine shorting a company with such clever promotion like this and MarketOS
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Abaxx Technologies Inc.
Abaxx is now trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol $ABXX. Thank you to our shareholders, partners, and team who have supported Abaxx since its first public listing in 2020. We look forward to welcoming new investors on the #TSX.
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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
Love to see more interested in Abaxx. They built a new clearinghouse and exchange for commodities using a new technology that will enable 24/7 trading and T+0 settling. At the same time they are targeting fractured commodities supply chains and bringing physical futures markets for those that need to improve hedging and risk management. One great example is a colocated gold and silver futures market in Singapore at the source of Asian demand. No more dealing with Comex and LBMA shenanigans. The same technology though can be extended to things such as artwork, stocks and so much more. They can basically unleash a new Swift network when they are really running. So basically owning Abaxx will eventually be like owning the new swift network or the Amazon of commodities. So much more to discuss. I wrote several 1 hour read articles on this topic. I really encourage you to research it more.
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Upslope Capital
Upslope Capital@UpslopeCapital·
@JoshCrumb Unfortunately, not sure I can pencil in listing a company anytime soon. Maybe you can just let me know what's up? Fwiw, big fan of exchange stocks and covered the sector as a banker + buyside for 15+ yrs!
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Upslope Capital
Upslope Capital@UpslopeCapital·
CEO of a $2bn mcap co
Josh Crumb 🆔++@JoshCrumb

Have at ‘er. I literally just pointed out where your fiduciary “business dealings” were below board with Mr. Duade, the only reason I engaged in this thread to begin with. I already know you’ll lose on your position and I don’t care. [this is the point in Claire’s own hero’s journey where she went obsessively digging for dirt on a highly regulated company who has always disclosed the difficulty and high risk/high reward nature of bootstrapping a global exchange and clearinghouse; she then engaged the Nth useless expert network Abaxx has seen forwarded to them month after month and as recently as yesterday, found nothing—just like the rest of the funds who started last year and scrapped multiple short reports—and then put out a report anyway on early market maker incentive programs bootstrapping volumes, and speculative spread trading with low open interest especially around delivery windows where they can’t make or take delivery, but no tangible negative data or evidence relative to the risk she put on and effort put it, just a bunch of abstract arguments around hype and leading innuendo to try to get some other short cultist to take her out of her position. Meanwhile, she slanders well intentioned investors who want smarter markets, the CEO, and tries to destroy the livelihoods of people working for or invested in Abaxx, people actually committed to building markets and price discovery for things the world needs, runs a company that promotes ESG even when it’s not the flavour of the month but just the values we were brought up with….all to make a buck and feed her ego] It’s about risk and reward. Hope your LPs are in your corner supporting your ego and these slanderous posts over that basic capitalistic calculation.

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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
Also with Minehub $MHUB Rothschilds have significantly added to their position and own almost 10% of the supply. They see the vision of what Minehub is trying to build. A multibillion dollar company. Maybe even worth tens of billions. Trades at $60M now.
Doc.@Abu_Laith20

@James_Duade @MineHub_Tech TheRoths are still buying heavily too..vote for confidence.. $mhub

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Watson@thewatsonview·
Doing some quick research, Schupan's domestic operations is much much bigger and the core of their work. This will open the door to the US market significantly. James did great research on it here. x.com/James_Duade/st… Like Abaxx, Minehub has built a strong platform that can quickly scale and grow as they add new sectors. The US ferrous scrap market for example could bring tens of millions in revenue to Minehub alone. And then it's only a matter of time until they enter the fishing and lobster industry as well with Abaxx.
MineHub Technologies@MineHub_Tech

“The decision by Schupan to expand Jules into their domestic materials trading flows is a powerful testimony to the product's quality and its ability to deliver value across different market segments. Having seen the platform's success in their international business, Schupan is now leveraging Jules to accelerate their domestic operations, proving our ability to improve visibility and execution across transactions for a broader range of stakeholders” – Andrea Aranguren, President and CEO of MineHub. Read the full news release: f.mtr.cool/lyjpwouljr $MHUB $MHUB.V $MHUBF #MineHub #NewsRelease #SupplyChain #Blockchain #Technology

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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
Today's price action on Abaxx $ABXX.NE has unlocked them to meet Singapore listing requirements in terms of MC for a dual Nasdaq listing. Only thing left is having two directors from Singapore so be on the look-out for that. I think we may even see a strategic investor based out of there getting a board seat as well help with it. Just speculation from my side though. Also nice to see they have 10 more clearing firms in the pipeline.
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Watson@thewatsonview·
Over analyzing. Jeff Curie was just appointed as Co-Chairman at Abaxx at a time when Abaxx started to gain significant trading volumes. Going forward he is taking a more promotional role of Abaxx in comparison to the last 3 years when we was just a board member. But his takes are still invaluable to the commodities world over the past decades so people are excited to see more of him on socials and actively talking about commodities like he has done for the past decades
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BigMurf
BigMurf@bigmurf58·
Commodity expert shows up out of nowhere. Bunch of respected individuals pumping @CommodMkt while he pumps $abaxx Red flag vibes on my end. Or am I just over analyzing?
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SilverTrade
SilverTrade@silvertrade·
@SilverTiki12 @grok It should lead to less ability for bullion banks to artificially suppress the price of silver via paper derivatives contracts, as the Singapore exchange joins Shanghai in allowing PHYSICAL silver delivery.
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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
Abaxx is focused on building the best real price discovery for their physical markets. Their futures market have co-located spot markets that deliver to the same jurisdiction. This will drive the price to the real value as delivery doesn't need to be routed from New York to switzerland for refining to then be delivered on LBMA then sent to Asia. Abaxx removes the massive price arbitrage ripe for manipulation while being close to the source of the real demand. And then they are attaching real-time collateral movements and 24/7 access to their markets likely year. x.com/JoshCrumb/stat…
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Electric Wendigo ⚡😈
Electric Wendigo ⚡😈@SilverTiki12·
@silvertrade @grok Thats fair, its just anytime I see futures, i see potential price manipulation/suppression. Hope Singapore and Shanghai don't follow COMEX's playbook.
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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
@JoshCrumb with the launch of the contract are you able to talk about how the new infrastructure works with the vault provider and how it differs from gold and others?
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Josh Crumb 🆔++
Josh Crumb 🆔++@JoshCrumb·
The Abaxx #Silver contract is a big deal. Launches Friday. It’s 4-9s (COMEX is 3-9), industrial grade for Asian manufacturing, and a better arb center (inventory flows) for offshore China than shipping bulky metal around the world (see Russ’ comment below, he just spent the week in HK where they’re very excited for our contract). Abaxx worked with a major vault provider on brand new infrastructure for this market and materials to flow in and out (in a modern way :) We’ll also have a real-time, in-vault spot market (with real time digital title transfer services) ramping up soon. Abaxx will have the most modern physical market in the world for Silver and #Gold, in the best location 🇸🇬 #29ers $abxx #OwnItAll
Russell Robertson Abaxx CBDO@ru55rob

Historically Hong Kong is a hub for silver bars and when the basis risk widens (the arb) then Asian bullion traders would have to offload into New York which costs!! Now when that arb opens they have @abaxx_exchange silver futures for convenience and cost efficiency. We love a game changer 😎 @abaxx_tech

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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
@calvinfroedge I'd rather just own the Amazon of commodities instead
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Watson@thewatsonview·
@James_Duade @JoshCrumb Abaxx will be the grocery store for every single commodity that you take your shipping list to and don't bother going to a competitor because they have everything you need. Even the niche lobster contracts to hedge your late summer birthday bbq.
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James Duade
James Duade@James_Duade·
Remember, no analyst covering Abaxx right now has Silver built into their DCF model. This will almost certainly force price targets to go higher for any analyst covering Abaxx IMO. This also underscores just how powerful an asset Abaxx's Clearinghouse and Commercial Team are, in that they can effectively spin up new benchmark contracts worth $100s of millions in FCF to meet market demand with minimal incremental cap-ex or op-ex spend. That's why a regulated clearinghouse is the best financial asset in the world IMO.
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Watson
Watson@thewatsonview·
Remember @JoshCrumb indicated earlier that silver could be even bigger than their gold contract in terms of interest this year. Maybe we see our first 200k volume day this year and it starts up much quicker then the gold contract because of the network already built until now.
James Duade@James_Duade

Abaxx Silver Contracts will be listed for trading on Abaxx Exchange starting on Friday, May 22nd...Huge news! Will we see some re-rates from analysts who now have to incorporate silver into their Abaxx DCF models? abexcws.directus.app/assets/53af09e…

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