LP
5.1K posts
LP
@LP_NXT
Trader | Reformed | Telegram: https://t.co/Tm58Opt8cJ
Katılım Aralık 2020
49 Takip Edilen7.7K Takipçiler
$BTC
Plan remains unchanged.
A sweep of the highs is still on the table, but the level to hold is 65–64K.
The bottom isn’t in yet, expect some more chop before a sweep of the 60K lows.
LP@LP_NXT
$BTC Bet. Against. Me. I’m short.
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$BTC
Hope you listened. 🤪
As targets started getting pushed to 78–80K, that’s where the best short opportunity presented itself.
Emotions drive this market more than anything. As long as participants keep chasing extremes, the same cycle will continue to repeat. Historically, bear markets have bottomed around ~350 days, while we’re currently only around 160 days into this one.
Nothing has changed.
LP@LP_NXT
$BTC Once price reaches the range highs, don’t flip bullish with the crowd. When everyone starts celebrating and calling for 80K, that’s usually where the best short setup presents itself. Trade the range until proven otherwise. 🤪
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$BTC
On the HTF, some of the low leverage liquidation clusters have already been cleared, but a significant amount of liquidity still remains below the current price. At the same time, short liquidations are beginning to build above the previous highs around 76.5K, which could still get targeted.
If price can hold above the 70–69K region, there’s a strong case for a move higher to sweep those upside short liquidations before any potential downside continuation.
However, a loss of that level would shift momentum, making a move toward the 65K region increasingly likely.
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$BTC
-5% move captured. ✔️
Partial profits taken. Thanks for playing.
Don't. Bet. Against. Me.
LP@LP_NXT
$BTC Bet. Against. Me. I’m short.
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@LP_NXT Think its safe to say we're going lower. Or at the very least... not seeing 80k anytime soon.
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$BTC
Price continues to mirror the structure of the previous bear market, slowly grinding higher, while moving toward the broader bottoming window projected between late June and late August. If this cycle continues to track the prior one closely, price is currently around 105 days away from a sweep of the major wick low, which would represent a form of time-based capitulation before the final bottom is established.
That said, this cycle has generally unfolded at a faster pace, meaning the capitulation phase could arrive sooner or the bottom formation could still follow a similar overall timeline. For now, the lows are likely to remain protected in the near term, but the expectation remains that they will eventually be taken before a larger higher-timeframe reversal develops.
LP@LP_NXT
$BTC If this cycle continues to mirror the previous bear cycle, price could see a push higher or consolidation above the wick low over the coming weeks before the final drop. That scenario would involve another sweep of the current lows, followed by a move into the broader bottoming window, which sits roughly 126 days out, around four months from now. Which places the potential bottoming zone in early July into August, just ahead of a possible transition into the next bull phase. 58–54K. 👀
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@LP_NXT Maybe down to 69.....bounce.....then attack mid range at 64/65?
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$BTC
Monday High. ✔️
Thursday Low. ⏳
Same script. Different week.
LP@LP_NXT
$BTC Price has pushed higher into the Monday pivot, increasing the probability that this level forms the weekly high. If the usual Monday / Thursday correlation continues to hold, this would then suggest that Thursday is likely to print the pivot low for the week. The structure remains fairly consistent, with Monday establishing the initial directional pivot and Thursday delivering the inverse move into the weekly close. That said, there is another pivot tomorrow, which could influence how this intra-week pattern unfolds.
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$BTC
Orderbook pressure continues to show persistent sell pressure just above the highs in the 74–75K region, keeping this area as a resistance zone. While the buy pressure that had previously stepped in to reclaim 72K, has now disappeared.
If sellers maintain control and bids fail to return in the short term, price could rotate lower toward the 72K area, with a potential extension into the CME gap around 71.3K. This downside move would also align with tomorrow’s pivot.
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@LP_NXT 76.9 should get retested to confirm lower lows
Be careful sir
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@CryptoPista Accumulation at the bottom usually lasts 1-2 months before the move up.
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$BTC
When comparing the 2019 and 2022 bear market bottoms to current price action, one key difference stands out. At major bottoms, price tends to repeatedly sweep downside liquidity, making it psychologically difficult to enter long positions. In 2019, multiple downside wicks were taken before price eventually broke out, while most upside liquidity remained untouched until the trend reversal was ready to unfold. The same behaviour was seen in 2022, where price continued clearing lows, only taking upside liquidity once accumulation was complete and the breakout began.
The current structure looks different. Instead of consistently sweeping the lows, price has been repeatedly taking the highs, making it increasingly difficult to position short while leaving much of the downside liquidity untouched. This is typically not how durable bottoms are formed. Rather, it suggests liquidity is being engineered below, increasing the probability that those lower levels are eventually targeted over the coming weeks or months.
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$BTC
Price has pushed higher into the Monday pivot, increasing the probability that this level forms the weekly high. If the usual Monday / Thursday correlation continues to hold, this would then suggest that Thursday is likely to print the pivot low for the week.
The structure remains fairly consistent, with Monday establishing the initial directional pivot and Thursday delivering the inverse move into the weekly close. That said, there is another pivot tomorrow, which could influence how this intra-week pattern unfolds.
LP@LP_NXT
$BTC Over the past 6 weeks, the Monday / Thursday pivot correlation has played out in 5 of them, showing a strong level of consistency. Going into this week, it will be important to watch how price develops into Monday. If price continues pushing higher into it, the probability increases that Monday forms the high, which would then suggest Thursday forms the low of the week. This framework continues to remain relevant, but it’s important to keep in mind that these intra-week pivots are lower timeframe in nature and can still be influenced by higher timeframe pivots.
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$BTC
On the HTF, low-leverage liquidation clusters continue to build below price, and when these higher timeframe clusters accumulate in the same region, they tend to act as strong liquidity magnets. It increasingly looks like liquidity is being systematically constructed to the downside.
This doesn’t necessarily mean the sweep happens immediately or within the next week, but structurally, once conditions align, these clusters are likely to be targeted alongside the wick low near 60K.
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