LP

$BTC Three different bear markets. Same bottoming structure every time. This hasn’t played out yet in this cycle. My view remains simple, this time likely isn’t different. There’s no edge in fighting a pattern that’s repeated at every bear market bottom for over a decade. This is the scenario I’m positioning for. The magenta circle move is likely to unfold within the next month or so.

bitcoin:native Looking at the last 3 bear markets, 2 bottomed on the 9th red monthly candle, and the other on the 10th. This cycle is currently at 5 red monthly candles, suggesting there’s still room for downside and the bottom isn’t in yet. If the next 4 months also close red, it would align with a bottom around August, adding further confluence to a summer bottom.

bitcoin:native 100% out of these spot bids. Next bid below 60K...

bitcoin:native Elevator departing soon…

bitcoin:native Every bear market has shown the same monthly pivot structure. Depending on how price positions into them, it helps determine whether they form a high or a low. February has consistently marked a low in each bear market. Late March / Early April has printed either a lower low or lower high in most cases, with 2022 being the exception, marking a high. That brings us to the May pivot. Price is currently pushing higher into May, and the last time we saw this setup, back in 2018, May marked a local high, followed by a reversal into late June, which then formed a local low.

$BTC The chop above previous ATHs looks to be nearing completion. If price continues to mirror prior bear market structures, we’re likely within ~70 days of sweeping the 60K lows and transitioning into the bottoming phase. That bottoming phase typically consists of a ~60-90 day range, which then leads into the next bull cycle. This cycle has been unfolding faster than previous ones, so the timeline could compress slightly but, expectations still point toward a summer bottom.

bitcoin:native It’s that time… Over the past 2–3 months, every time Friday has pushed higher into the weekend, it has led to a drop into the new weekly candle. In 5 of those 6 cases, the weekend also closed below Friday’s close.

bitcoin:native Different cycle, same pattern. ~750 days after the halving has consistently marked a top, leading into the next phase of the bear market. From there, price typically transitions into the final capitulation before the bottom, which historically unfolds over a 100–170 day window. That would imply roughly 3–5 months remaining before a bear market bottom forms. May 11th...

bitcoin:native Little upside left. Something similar to this will play out again, keep betting against it. Bottom isn’t in. Summer bottom.

bitcoin:native Shorts continue to get targeted. Liquidity is building below, while bulls keep raising their targets. Only a matter of how high this lower high pushes before going for the lows. Still short, nothing has changed.

$BTC During the last two bear market bottoms, price consistently swept the lows, making it psychologically difficult to enter longs, while the highs were largely left untouched until the bull run began. This time, it’s the opposite, price has been repeatedly sweeping the highs, targeting shorts and leaving the lows untouched. Meanwhile, sentiment is starting to flip bullish, with more participants calling for higher. I remain short, those lows are still likely to get swept.