Mr. Marbles

$BTC 73.7k, That's range high, shorted here. Alright! We finally approached 73k, and are about to make an attempt to close above. This is the moment we aimed for happening eventually, a clean close above so we can run our two runner longs to very high prices, potentially enter a breakout long, and reel in a big payout, based on our overall bullish bias of this range breaking upwards, yes, against everyone's belief. Most people are stuck in the bear market mentality of wanting sub 50k. But before we start celebrating our glory, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Order flow is bearish, and we are at range high. We also reached above the latest high. This was the only situation I would short per last post. Yes, we're bullish. But no, we have not broken out yet. And since we're at range high (and reached above our latest high), it's naturally a good short. Nothing big, but just to have some conviction. I will be TP'ing this short quite aggressively, because I am overall bullish. Enjoy.

$BTC There is an 87.5% chance $BTC has bottomed For the ones who have been following me for a while, know this analysis already. But given that it's one of those days where $BTC is slightly red on the day, and everyone (literally) is putting out their posts that they expect lower, all saw this move down coming, even pulling up some old quotes where they vaguely called the top, lower their targets, or we simply see large cynicism without much content, I figured I'd continue my lone bull stance as we have come across another confluence, on top of all the confluences we have already given as to why I believe $BTC has bottomed, and won't hit the low 70's, let alone the 60's or 50's. In fact, we openly and in live time entered fully long "against all odds" and against the majority on this platform. Aim is to freshen up the timeline, give some hope, because yes it's easy from a successful traders standpoint to act cool on social media and write a few forced posts that don't mean all that much and just attempt to make it look like someone called something where that behavior only shows the opposite. It's harder to actually help people out and give them conviction with a type of analysis that historically outperforms the results of what even paid groups offer these days, here for free. Will keep this slightly shorter since you will find this type of analysis in the past under my name (keywords: FOMC reversal analysis astronomer), but followers doubled since last time so a quick recap never hurts. The analysis The analysis is quite simple, yet powerful. All it requires is flip on a daily (or 2 daily in my case to keep the chart clean) timeframe, plot out all the dates FOMC meeting appeared, and see what price did. This shows that indeed price tends to reverse when time is nearing into FOMC. The caveat is that the price reverses before or at the very latest, right at the FOMC day. That's exactly why it works so well. People usually expect a reversal after FOMC (due to the "news" it brings). Yet we know the market is forward pricing, hence why it catches the majority off guard. Works almost every time, 14 out of 16 times in fact (or 87.5% of the time), but data goes much further (I like to keep it recent for purposes of balancing up-to-date-criticism and sample size). And the time difference the bottom happens versus the FOMC day, is usually 0 to 5 2D bars before the exact date, as shown on the chart. Given the next FOMC is the 19th of March, that means the low is in the latest that day and the earliest the 5th of March. We're right in the middle of that timeframe. And because we hit major high timeframe levels from my end on the high timeframe (see $BTC macro analyses), because cyclical analysis expects a low shortly (any day now) both on the daily and weekly, and because a 0 bar difference i.e. a reversal on FOMC itself is rare, the chances only increase that the low is in. Sentiment wise, fear is peaking to hilarious levels. Even "Reputable" traders are protecting their reputation with some random cautionary posts out of nowhere. I don't blame anyone's methods, but I take it as a great sign of a bottom. Personally, I prefer just looking at the data, act on it as ideally as possible, with high conviction whether I end up winning or losing. NFA.

$BTC Bet. Against. Me. I’m short.

$BTC Price has pushed higher into the Monday pivot, increasing the probability that this level forms the weekly high. If the usual Monday / Thursday correlation continues to hold, this would then suggest that Thursday is likely to print the pivot low for the week. The structure remains fairly consistent, with Monday establishing the initial directional pivot and Thursday delivering the inverse move into the weekly close. That said, there is another pivot tomorrow, which could influence how this intra-week pattern unfolds.

$BTC longs Still at 74.2k. Tried to make a run for higher, but price action is slow. Quite common before FOMC and will only get slower as we get closer, so I don't expect volatility to increase. Given that we planned to not hold longs through FOMC, I'm going to exit here right at BE. And no, I'm not exiting to be "careful" during news volatility. That's only what amateurs say. I'm exiting in awaitance of FOMC reversal potentially giving a downtrend for a while and delaying the breakout. Not something I expect, but something I don't want to get suckered into. Those are 2 different things. I'll be ready to long again in alignment with my breakout idea above 76k. That's when we confirm that the FOMC reversal won't play out, also confirming the breakout. Otherwise, it's another nice and low long.

$BTC Longed again 74.2k, goal is to TP most before FOMC (lower timeframe trade) Alright, just a quick post because I'm trying to get your entry as close to mine as possible in case price moves while I am typing. With the idea we still may reach close to 76k, I am going long based on my overall bullish bias and while 73k is still holding, 76k for a second time is still on the table. I am going to TP aggressively though because FOMC may potentially reverse us back down (my ancient old FOMC reversal thesis, my trademarked edge). That "trademarked" edge is going around a lot nowadays and many have been taking my idea, so it might not be as effective anymore hence I'm still attempting a long here. First TP's will be right before 76k, but if we hit 76k and we see no liquidity, I am going to hold for longer because then the FOMC reversal doesn't take place, our 76k level breaks and we send it. A simple plan, with straightforw

$BTC If this cycle continues to mirror the previous bear cycle, price could see a push higher or consolidation above the wick low over the coming weeks before the final drop. That scenario would involve another sweep of the current lows, followed by a move into the broader bottoming window, which sits roughly 126 days out, around four months from now. Which places the potential bottoming zone in early July into August, just ahead of a possible transition into the next bull phase. 58–54K. 👀

$BTC is about to close its 7th consecutive green daily candle, which is historically often a warning sign. Moves like this tend to get retraced aggressively. Because of this price action, liquidity above the highs is building up. Even though the main liquidity is still resting below the current market price, it would make sense for price to sweep the upside liquidity first. The main upside liqudity clusters are $72,500 and $74,500. A likely scenario is a short-term manipulation push upward, grabbing those liquidity pockets, before distributing lower to collect the massive liquidity clusters sitting below price at the bottom of the current range.