G
1.4K posts


@LUCIFERVALE Toujours le lien oui. Meme si je préfère etre sur logiciel actuellement . Probablement mort avant clarity act
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@themarketradar Yet your system tells you to buy higher instead of lower 🤔
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@sfrantzman The politicians and the generals never share their strategy. Is there even any ?
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I’m confused, haven’t there been 959 days of war with Hezbollah, including two large multi-month ground operations, in which ostensibly thousands of Hezbollah members were claimed eliminated and hundreds of thousands of people displaced; how is it still “intact”?
It’s crazy if you look at 959 days in WWII, you’ll find the Allies getting from North Africa to the Rhine.
There has to be some huge re-think about these wars, such as a re-think about how Hezbollah might be defeated or removed; or Hamas etc

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@rich_goldberg We were naturally betting that 2 of the most powerful air forces in the world would give the opportunity to Trump no to even have to negotiate anything with terrorists. That they would surrender after the attacks. Instead Iran is now dictating the rules. What happened ?
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לישראל אין אסטרטגיה.
אסטרטגיה היא ההתאמה של אמצעים למטרות באמצעות דרכים, כשהתוצר הסופי הוא ״אפקט אסטרטגי״ - מידה של שליטה על האויב.
מה עשינו בשנתיים וחצי? דחקנו את האויב משטחים מסוימים, במה שהיא במהותה פעולה הגנתית. הפכנו את הכיבוש של שטח לצורך ״מרחב הגנה״ ליעד הצבאי *והמדיני* של המלחמה.
באופן טבעי התנהלות כזו מזמינה את הצד השני להתיש אותנו בדיוק באותם מרחבים, כשאנחנו לא מסוגלים *תפיסתית* להציע איזו אסטרטגיה כנגד.
אז דשדוש בכל חזית.
Dudu Lagziel@DuduLagziel
א׳: אז השגנו את "הניצחון המוחלט" באיראן? ב׳: זה פחות קריטי, מה שחשוב זה לבנון. א׳: אז בלבנון השגנו את "הניצחון המוחלט"? א׳: זה פחות קריטי, מה שחשוב זו עזה. ב׳: אז בעזה השגנו את "הניצחון המוחלט"? א׳: זה כבר שנים ככה, לך תזכור.
עברית

There's a lot of speculation that Trump's announcement is an indication that the war in Iran will resume this weekend. The problem is that for now usstrikeradar.com assesses that there's only a 42% probability for that, so either it's wrong or the war won't start tonight.

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Prediction: Netanyahu will fire Ben Gvir.
1. In any case we are going to elections. The stability of the coalition is not a major issue.
2. It will make several key figures in the U.S. Administration happy.
3. Such a firing won’t necessarily preclude Ben Gvir from joining a future Netanyahu-led Coalition (actually Ben Gvir will be happy to be fired, as it will serve his election campaign.)
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Interesting ; two key Israeli political leaders, who both hold important posts; the context is, in one part the upcoming elections where voters will get to decide which type of Israel will prevail; but also leads to some questions, because why weren’t the flotilla detainees simply sent home, what was the logic of bringing them for this kind of footage and under whose authority are the activists, they aren’t being charged, or at they.
In the end of the day then this raises some questions about sequence of control of events; since the PM had left hearings in order to deal with this; but then to have it end up like this is interesting
Gideon Sa'ar | גדעון סער@gidonsaar
You knowingly caused harm to our State in this disgraceful display - and not for the first time. You have undone tremendous, professional, and successful efforts made by so many people - from IDF soldiers to Foreign Ministry staff and many others. No, you are not the face of Israel.
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@AmitSegal Let's hope the next US/IL operation will be very different in approach and scope from the 2 previous aerial ones and will actually yield some long term returns.
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@sfrantzman Can't even remove Hamas, yet people still hope to remove Hezbollah, and IRGC. It seems for now a man can dream.
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It's fascinating how my view about removing Hamas since October 7 has remained consistent but the kind of replies change over time.
After October 7 when I said the strategy should be similar to Mosul against ISIS, remove Hamas systematically, the first replies were something like...
- You don't understand war, this will take years.
Ok, so in the spring of 2024 when reports said that Hamas was "dismantled" in northern Gaza and only a few Hamas "battalions" remained in Central and Southern Gaza, I said, ok, great, now let's go into Rafah, which should have been done before, but let's do it now as the plan calls for and then remove Hamas. Set up a new governance in the freed areas and slowly strangle Hamas, let the civilians move to the new area.
And the refrain was something like "we can't win because of the Biden admin."
Ok, so then the second hostage deal happened in January 2025 and Trump was in power and I said, ok let's get the hostages out and finish this and set up a new governance.
Then the response was "now you'll see, Trump is in charge, now Hamas will be defeated."
Ok, then comes March 2025, the ceasefire deal collapses, new fighting, and aid cut off...but then things stall...then GHF is set up in May...and by this time the IDF has gone into the same areas sometimes three or five times. The aid cut-off didn't work despite all those who heralded using aid as a pressure point (they were still trying to cut off aid in October 2025, a completely failed policy).
The response moves to "Hamas only controls Gaza City and the Central Camps"...ok, so then remove them from those areas.
So the Gaza City op begins in July-August 2025 with targeting of hi-rises, and desolation of the border areas, but Hamas remains.
Finally there is the US-backed deal Sept-Oct that comes into place. All the hostages return. This removes the discussion about how to operate with the hostages there.
OK...so now the ISF can go in with CMCC and begin the work of creating the new governance and replace Hamas. Great.
But no, instead Hamas remains and begins to rebuild and no civilians are allowed to leave the Hamas zone to a new area in Gaza.
So now the response is "we can't clear the Hamas-run area, they are weakened and not a threat, it's not worth more losses for that, better to just keep them weak and there....and civilians can't be allowed out of the Hamas run area because they are a threat."
So, we've come full circle back to pre-Oct. 7...of basically, it's acceptable to have Hamas in power and that's kind of the status quo preference.
What began as "can't defeat Hamas because it will take years, have to dismantle every home because of tunnels, there are hostages so one can't operate there, it's Biden's fault holding back Israel, when Trump comes then victory...but also have to destroy hi-rises...but then cut off aid...but then not...but then GHF, but not...and then peace deal with plan for ISF and disarming 'the easy way or hard way'..."
And the usual reply "you don't have a better plan."
I've said the same thing for 955 days.
The strategy should be similar to Mosul against ISIS, remove Hamas systematically, allow civilians to leave the Hamas area to have new governance, new schools and health care; remove Hamas systematically.
This won't happen until it is realized that Hamas is not the preferable group to run Gaza and that having Hamas run Gaza isn't some 3D chess that helps; but actually it's a disaster for everyone involved. I thought October 7 and the mass murder of 1,000 people and kidnapping 250 might lead to the realization that Hamas shouldn't have the four decades of appeasement and privilege it has had. But it still retains this. Until people decide things have to change. That Hamas is not preferable.
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@CalebFranzen Time in the market works for SPY, timing the market works for BTC except the RR for going through the hussle of timings is not worth it anymore since the returns gets lower as the asset class has grown. It's even worse for ETH, stuck in a range for 5 years.
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@LUCIFERVALE What are you talking about...?
If you want to capture these returns, the recipe is:
Buy now, sell at all-time highs.
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G retweetledi

Funding UNRWA is funding Hamas.
This terrorist-filled organization should never receive another dime of funding. nypost.com/2026/05/19/us-…
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Barrack managed to counsel the Middle East against democracy, push cooperation with Hezbollah, mock the Lebanon cease-fire, call to include Iran in Lebanon talks, play down Turkey’s purchase of Russian air defenses, and threaten Israel on Turkey’s behalf.
wsj.com/opinion/tom-ba…
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