Seth Frantzman
178.5K posts
@sfrantzman
Middle East security analyst, Phd, author of #TheOctober7War bylines @Jerusalem_Post @BreakingDefense adjunct fellow @FDD Exec Dir @MidEast_Center @GulfIsrael;
I’m convinced most officials & specialists are too immersed in the moment to realize a certain basic fact about why Iran is striking the Gulf. When Iran was fighting in Syria & Iraq, its field commanders & their proxies (and their ecosystems in countries of Iranian influence) always promised that the next battle would be in the Gulf. This was conveyed, explicitly or otherwise, by Qassem Soleimani and allies like Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, Hassan Nasrallah and the Assad regime. It was part of a doctrine guiding Iran’s regional strategy, not mere passing comments. (The same language that Israel began using against regional countries only recently. “Qatar is next” or “Turkey is the new Iran” etc. Iran has used that language for many years.) Now, Gulf countries look at Iran and wonder: Why is Iran hitting us when we tried to talk Trump out of striking it? Iran knows we tried our best. Iran’s action is understandable if it targeted the UAE and Saudi Arabia, but why mediators like Qatar? Yes we have US bases, yes we can scream at the US, but it still makes little sense, even from a basic divide-and-conquer strategy. But Iran sees this war as having begun at least a decade or so ago, and the Gulf states played a vital role in getting Iran to where it is today. The Gulf is the problem, not just Israel or the US. Strategically reckless, but that is the plain IRGC logic. This is clear if those officials had followed the rhetoric over the last 1-2 decades and the nitty-gritty behavior of Iran on a ground level outside Iran.
#BREAKING #EXCLUSIVE The US military has accelerated the deployment of thousands of Marines and sailors to help reinforce US troops in the Middle East amid the war against Iran. Four officials tell Newsmax the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and the embarked 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit is deploying ahead of schedule from the West Coast and is expected to sail through the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East region after the Navy was ordered to surge additional fire power. The Boxer Amphibious Ready Group includes the USS Boxer amphibious assault ship—which serves as a mini aircraft carrier—and USS Portland and USS Comstock amphibious landing ships. There are roughly 2,500 Marines--4,000 total service members aboard these three amphibs. Additional Ships, Marines Deployed to Middle East | Newsmax.com
Netanyahu: It is not enough to be moral. It is not enough to be just. "Jesus Christ has no advantage over Genghis Khan. If you are strong enough, ruthless enough, and powerful enough, evil will overcome good."
An out-of-control dancing robot had to be restrained by staff after it smashed tables and sent food flying. Customers at the Haidilao hotpot restaurant in San Jose, California, were enjoying their meals when the robot suddenly slapped its hand down on a guest’s plate of food.
🚨Crews at risk in the Gulf🚨 Just heard from a crewmember on one of the 3,200 ships stuck in the Persian Gulf. A ship called the local port authority requested permission to dock as they had run out of water. They were denied permission! Multiple ships are in the same condition, with stores, food and fuel running low. Ports are overwhelmed and security is such that they are refusing permission for ships to dock. Crews cannot get off and reliefs cannot fly in. What is being done to address this matter @POTUS @SecWar @SecDuffy @DOTMARAD @IMOSecGen @IMOHQ.
דיווחנו הערב ב״עובדה״: ראש המוסד דדי ברנע העריך ערב המבצע כי השגת שינוי משטרי באיראן זו מטרה אפשרית. העמדה המקצועית שהניח בפני השרים היא שאם יושגו המטרות הצבאיות של המבצע קרי פגיעה קשה באישים בהנהגה, במוסדות השלטון ובכוח הדיכוי המשטרי, המוסד והCIA יידעו בתורם להביא תוצאה של החלפת המשטר כשהוא מתכוון להוצאת העם האירני לרחוב ולמציאת אלטרנטיבה שלטונית.
Iraqi PM Sudani visits the PMF (Hashd) Council headquarters & says the PMF is a formal part of Iraqi security architecture & condemns attacks on PMF units. Those who say the PMF operates outside the law are either ignorant or have bad intentions. arabic.rt.com/middle_east/17…
Iraqi Prime Minister and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, visited the headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces
