123
1.6K posts
不只是光伏，我说的其他行业龙头都很好，做好长线拿到本轮牛市结束是妥妥的躺赢，国家不提倡大家躺平，但是躺赢还是可以的嘛。
至于什么时候牛市结束，我也推演出来了，真到那时候我会提醒大家的。
多给我点赞，关注我就行了，想进粉丝群的看我置顶链接。
杨美龙@hotice_su16668
@Blazing_Sun1 光伏确实没毛病，但是我个人觉得啊，大部分人可能拿不住光伏这种长线，光伏这个位置安全边际极高，未来必定上涨
中文
DeepSeek v4 just dropped. At first glance it does not appear to be the kind of leap that v3 claimed to be in January 2025, nor does it challenge the consensus regarding the state of the U.S.-China AI competition: U.S. models lead by ~7 months, and leading Chinese models remain dependent on U.S. tech. A few quick observations about the paper:
- DeepSeek admits that v4 does not challenge leading U.S. models in performance. DeepSeek admits that v4 trails state-of-the-art frontier models by 3-6 months. It claims v4's reasoning and agentic performance is comparable to GPT 5.2, Gemini 3.0 Pro, and Claude Opus 4.5--which were all released 5-6 months ago. This is broadly consistent with longstanding estimates that U.S. models lead Chinese models by ~7 months. v4 does appear impressive on coding benchmarks (93.5% on LiveCodeBench), but its best results are on benchmarks with known contamination risk that are most easily gamed; even DeepSeek even admits that its internal benchmarks show a larger gap with frontier models in coding capabilities than the public benchmarks do. v4 therefore does not appear to change priors about the state of U.S.-China AI competition.
- DeepSeek v4 is not even clearly the best Chinese model. It appears to have narrow leads over Kimi K2.6 and GLM-5.1 in most benchmarks, although not all. But its lead is marginal, not the step-change over other Chinese models that R1 was. This again is indicative of a model that is largely a status-quo release, not a gamechanger.
- DeepSeek's paper does not discuss what training costs or chips - very likely because it was trained on banned Nvidia Blackwell chips. This stands in stark contrast to DeepSeek's paper for v3, which claimed v3 was trained on 2,000 Nvidia H800 chips for only $5 million (this claim was misleading at best, and potentially outright false). The United States government has already publicly asserted that it knows v4 was trained on Nvidia Blackwell chips, which are banned in China. This is almost certainly why DeepSeek is silent on how it was trained. There is no reason to believe DeepSeek was able to "do more with less" to train v4, they just were able to smuggle in banned chips.
- DeepSeek cannot serve v4 pro widely, as it admits to being compute constrained. In its pricing sheets for the model, DeepSeek notes that "Due to constraints in high-end compute capacity, current service capacity for Pro is very limited" (h/t @jukan05 ). A competitive AI ecosystem requires sufficient compute to both train and widely serve a model. China doesn't appear to have that. A very capable model isn't very useful if it can't be deployed at scale.
Bottom line: DeepSeek v4 appears to be a fine model that may be the best Chinese model by a small amount. It is not competitive with frontier U.S. models, and does not appear to close the gap with the United States in AI. It is entirely consistent with what we already knew: the gap between U.S. and Chinese models is about seven months. And remember, like all other leading Chinese models, v4 was trained using U.S. chips, and on data illicitly distilled from frontier U.S. models. If China fully lost access to U.S. chips and models, not to mention U.S. and allied chipmaking tools, DeepSeek and others would likely fall much farther behind.
English
I’m still amazed that DeepSeek, Kimi, and Qwen can train very strong LLMs with far fewer and often nerfed NVIDIA GPUs, or even Huawei chips.
DeepSeek V4 report shows they invent new attention architectures to make training/inference more efficient.
Creativity loves constraints.
I really hope we see strong US open-source models that can compete.
English
3种暴力突破形态！放量瞬间跟上，轻松吃主升浪
炒股最怕什么？怕你刚买进去，股价就掉头向下。其实很多主升浪启动前，K线已经给你发信号了，就看你能不能看懂。今天讲三个实战中胜率很高的突破形态，都是我自己用真金白银试出来的。
第一个，放量突破前高。股价用涨停或大阳线干掉了之前的高点，成交量同步放大。这说明买盘是真猛，把前期套牢盘全吃了。注意一个细节：后量一定要超前量，缩量冲高大概率是假突破，骗你接盘。
第二个，突破箱体上沿。股票横盘震荡越久，蓄势越足。一旦放量突破箱顶，就是起爆点。蓄势越足。一旦放量突破箱顶，就是起爆点。最好配合涨停大阳线，分时图上逐波上涨、回踩均线不破，这种最稳。突破瞬间可以先进场，后面回踩箱顶不破，再加一笔。
第三个，多线突破。一根放量阳线，同时捅穿好几条均线。这说明主力不想磨叽了，直接暴力启动。当天就是上车点，别犹豫。说句心里话，这些形态不是100%成功，但放量+突破关键位，胜率确实高。最近市场里不少票就在走这种路子，你可以翻翻自选股验证一下。
你觉得哪个形态最靠谱？评论区聊聊。
中文
中國經濟的崩潰在日本大眾媒體中幾乎沒有出現，但情況似乎非常嚴峻。2020年以後的5年內，外資撤退了90％，日本的索尼、松下、伊藤洋華堂等許多企業已經撤退，而這次，日本第二大汽車製造商，本田技研工業，將關閉廣州和武漢的兩個燃油車工廠。本田在2020年創下中國銷售量162萬7千台的歷史新高之後，連續5年銷售量持續下降，2025年跌至64萬5千台。曾被稱為「世界工廠」的中國時代已經結束了（日文翻譯）
田母神俊雄@toshio_tamogami
中国経済の崩壊は日本のマスコミではあまり出てこないが酷い状況のようだ。2020年以降の5年で外資は90％撤退、日本もソニー、パナソニック、イトーヨーカ堂など多くの企業がすでに撤退しているが、今度は日本第2位の自動車メーカー、本田技研工業が広州と武漢の2つのガソリン車工場を閉鎖する。本田は2020年に中国販売台数が162万7千台の過去最高を記録して以降、5年連続で減少が続いており、2025年は64万5千台に落ち込んだ。世界の工場と言われた中国の時代は終わった。
中文
外交部发言人：日本自卫队舰艇进入台湾海峡活动，中国军队已依法依规处置。日方派自卫队舰艇进入台湾海峡，耀武扬威，蓄意挑衅，是错上加错，再次暴露日方一些人企图武力介入台海，破坏台海和平稳定的危险图谋。
中文
做为外人，我们确实很难看清老习的想法。从面相上看，老习现在越来越慈眉善目；从跟郑丽文会谈来看，说的话非常的平和中正，完全没有一丁点要武统的迹象；但从去年对美贸易战针锋相对寸步不让、拿下张又侠、整军经武的一系列动作来看，又显示出非常强悍的一面。那么他对台海的真实想法到底是什么呢？🤔
二爷Alex@Alex8282019
不知大家有没有感觉到，习近平的外交政策，在疫情后有明显的转变。从以前卖勇斗狠、逞一时之口快的战狼外交，回归了正常的状态。各种外交措辞都平和了不少。倒是美国外交反了过来。令人唏嘘。
中文
<끊임없는 반인권적 반국제법적 행동으로 고통받고 힘들어하는 전 세계인들의 지적을 한번쯤은 되돌아볼 만도 한데 실망입니다.
내가 아프면 타인도 그만큼 아픕니다.
나의 필요 때문에 누군가 고통받으면 미안한 것이 인지상정입니다.
아닌 밤중에 홍두깨라고 아무 잘못없는 우리 국민들께서 뜬금없이 겪고 있는 이 엄청난 고통과 국가적 어려움을 지켜보는 마음이 매우 불편합니다.
보편적 인권과 대한민국의 국익을 위해 할 수 있는 일을 더 열심히 찾아봐야겠습니다.>
이스라엘, ‘전시 살해=유대인 학살’ 李대통령 발언에 “용납 못해” v.daum.net/v/202604110641…
한국어
在战火肆虐、美国的盟友关系显得越来越不确定之际，中国领导人习近平正在向台湾重新传递一个信息：台湾的未来取决于北京而不是华盛顿。
习近平周五在北京与台湾主要反对党国民党主席郑丽文举行了一次罕见的会晤，含蓄地传达了这一信息。
cn.nytimes.com/china/20260410…
中文
郑丽文4月8日到南京中山陵谒陵后发表讲话，罕有11次点名日本，提及日本殖民统治台湾、发动侵略战争。有学者分析，其发言非常反常，改变以往国民党“友日”的外交架构，帮助中国割裂“台湾有事就是日本有事”的战略论述。bbc.in/47NWUbe
中文