@Reformed_Trader everything ok in your world? Hope all is well in the family. Not like you to not post during this craziness. 🙏🏻
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Lane
186 posts
It’s about raising money isn’t it? And being aware of the the importance of trend is a responsibility of your advisor/banker. However they don’t care because they just want the commission to sell the stock hence no guidance. Hurts every investor as well as company as if this waits they begin offering stock probably in the mid 80s
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@PaperBozz Because the people who run companies are glued to a screen looking at the chart all day right? How do you think Rocket Lab grows as a business, by doing TA?
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$RKLB, here’s why I’m a little salty about the timing of the $1B offering:
They did it technically on the first day of the consolidation breakout. Momentum was just building, and they smacked it right in the head. Now we’ll pay for it with a momentum reset. If we break below $65–$60, watch out below.
It’s also where the price hit the right shoulder high resistance (see chart), which was extremely important for a new uptrend. I stated in my March 11 post that getting above $80 was critical for a new uptrend.
I don’t understand why every management team seems to do offerings at critical pivot areas. They need an in-house technical analysts or chartists to advise on timing. I’d gladly do it for free.
Paper Bozz@PaperBozz
$RKLB epic bull and bear fight going on to secure the $72 border. Bulls must clear $72 first as a small step toward $80 for a new uptrend. $65 area is still the critical neckline support. Oscillators are coiling tightly, slightly favoring the bulls.
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@David_Tracey I love how you cut thru the shit storm. Smooth sailing thru it all ⭐️
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Private credit issues have been surfacing for 6 months but it seems to be the latest thing now on X.
I was also hearing how CRE would crash the market on X in 2022 and 2023.
It’s old news and it’s a ‘known’.
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@Jake__Wujastyk Carson Block is a legitimate respected figure.... sure he has done his due diligence...whether the market goes his way is a complete other thing
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@mementovitam Dealers who sold puts as you said have to sell stock as that strike come into play to maintain neutrality. If there’s a put wall meaning large open interest both sides come into play and that in and of itself create the wall
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Simple breakdown for everyone on this $SPY "put wall" at 660 (facts only, no hype):
What it means: A "put wall" is just a ton of put options open at that strike (434k+ contracts here). Dealers who sold those puts have to hedge by buying stock if price drops near 660 — creating a potential "wall" of support.
Two objective sides (not bull or bear, just data):
- Bull view: Acts like a floor. If SPY hits 660, dealers buy shares to hedge, pushing price back up. Could stabilize or bounce (net gamma negative but puts dominate downside protection).
- Bear view: If broken (big selling pressure), dealers unwind hedges, accelerating the drop. Wall becomes a trap door.
Net gamma -20.6B shows more put exposure overall — market pricing protection, but no extreme panic yet.
Patience over noise. What's your simple take on this level? 👇
#FinTwit #SPY #Options #Trading2026 #SPY #SPX #MarketStructure
Cheddar Flow@CheddarFlow
$SPY $4.1 BILLION Put Wall @ 660 Now The exposure on this strike has grown significantly in just the last day alone
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@Reformed_Trader just had a rediculous by any standard day today. Appreciate you keeping the compass pointed north. Fun times my friend 💥
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$ASTS: That last answer to a question on earnings call was huge.
When asked will there be more announcements later this week since they're at a conference in Barcelona.
The answer was roughly 'yes, you can expect more announcements later this week.' 👀
$100+ by EOW?!
Staudinger@Staudinger333
$ASTS: This bullish engulfing candle combined with a fantastic earnings ($70M for 2025) and forward guidance ($150-200M) means we're running back up to and past $100 this month, IMO. The next launch, coming up very soon, should act as a catalyst and springboard to get us there. Lastly, the last time we saw what is normally a bearish 20/50 sma crossover (pink circles), it marked a local bottom and we went higher from there. Buckle up folks! March is going to be fun. GLTA and NFA...
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Donald Trump is dragging the United States into a war the American people do not want. Let me be clear: I am opposed to a regime-change war in Iran, and our troops are being put in harm’s way for the sake of Trump’s war of choice.
Read my full statement:
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listened to the RKLB call and it was super positive even the neutron delay wasn't a known...Stock get whacked..Im kinda amazed that ASTS is getting sold this hard into earnings call but unless they pull a major rabbit out of the hat seems likely we head south regardless ... all ONE trade as you know and see today
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$ASTS coming down to the $70-$75 range I had marked out on Feb 12th. Looks like we will hit the bottom part of the channel fairly soon.
*NFA
Reformed Tr🅰️der@Reformed_Trader
$ASTS excuse how busy the chart is but this shows what I'm currently looking at. To start we're in a rising bull channel that has been fairly accurate at marking turns. The range of the lower end of the channel will be just under $70 to $75 by mid March. By that time the 175sma would likely be in that area as well coupled with one of the largest volume shelves relative to where we're trading providing a lot of confluence. I've drawn out how I think we could get there if we follow a similar path to previous drawdowns. If we drop without any bounces then we could quickly drop to the bottom of the channel before the end of the month that would land it lower around $65-$70 Looking at the RSI shows we are at levels that often provide short term bounces (black arrows) and sometimes reversals. Since we are still early on of this downturn I believe it is more likely to be a bounce and a lower low will come with a deeper oversold reading to confirm a swing low. Normally the 14 period RSI prints near 30 (it is at 41 today). The 5 period tends to print under 20 (it is at 23 currently). Those are marked with green arrows. *NFA
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@Reformed_Trader you put yourself out there all the time my brother..... keep fighting the good fight always appreciated
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$ASTS admittedly I'm getting some strong contradictory signals on my charts. Some signals are suggesting a low could be in today or early next week between $75-sub $80 while others are suggesting a bottom is about 1-2 weeks out between sub $70 and $75.
This isn't me saving face for an "I told you so" but rather me communicating the level of uncertainty I'm seeing in my own charts.
*NFA
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@AbelAvellan Abel Your company has made a massive impact on my life. Congratulations on continuing to execute flawlessly. Exciting times to be sure 🙏🏻💯⭐️
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BlueBird 6 is fully UNFOLDED! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
At nearly 2,400 square feet, this is now the LARGEST ever commercial communications array ever deployed in low Earth orbit - we just broke our own record!!!
A true breakthrough in space-based cellular broadband, the technology that we invented, built in America by our team in Texas.🤠💪🇺🇸
AST SpaceMobile@AST_SpaceMobile
AST SpaceMobile Successfully Completes Unfolding of BlueBird 6, the Largest Commercial Communications Array Antenna Ever Deployed in Low Earth Orbit businesswire.com/news/home/2026…
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Imagine it's your turn at the counter and you see this
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Working out thus far.
Bottom ticked the market off the breakout retest of a key level. Observed it shared confluence with RSI Bullish Divergence on lower timeframes and the golden Fib pocket for the higher low.
Gave me confidence we were overstretched, but the market open and 10AM slam brings the real test.
The uptrend is being respected til further notice. Losing the Daily 100MA on non-bullish data is the de-risk signal. I’ll let you all know when I see that happen. Would bring $6500-$6700 in play.
Ch🅰️rtradamus 🔋@Chartradamus
Extreme overnight sell-off linked to Japan and Korea. Beautiful. Love when international investors force our own markets down at the right time. Should have a nice bounce building up near this level. It then becomes a question of whether this bounce will convert into a real rally or a brief break before a bit more downside. I added a few positions, for a scalp trade at the very least. Just having fun. May not work out, let’s see.
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@phosphenq This is the equivalent of selling penny options. The time it doesn’t work out it erases a year plus of gains
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this trader made $1M on polymarket doing the most boring thing possible
Anjun buys YES at 99.9¢ on markets that will obviously resolve YES
makes 0.1¢ per share
but buys 200,000 shares at once
$202,000 position → $200 profit
sounds terrible right?
except he does this 10 times per day
$2,000 daily
$60,000 monthly
$1M in under 2 years
while you're trying to predict elections and find "alpha"
he's just farming guaranteed 0.1-1% edges with massive size
the strategy: find 99%+ certain outcomes, buy everything, wait for resolution
if you have $100k sitting around doing nothing
this prints $100-300 per day risk-free
check him: @Anjun?via=520" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@Anjun?via=520
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He’s coming home! Praise the Lord!
Still not 100% but good enough to recover fully at home.
I’ll be taking more time off.
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@Reformed_Trader oh man Gut wrenching im sure....best of luck to your family....youll all be home soon ..... you are missed here....thanks for updating as I was concerned for your family🙏🙏
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Quick update: they’ve stopped the IV this morning and are trying to give liquids orally to see if he can stay hydrated. Praying he can keep fluids down (vomiting has persisted this whole time till early this morning). This is day 6 so we’re all exhausted and hoping to bring him home soon.
Thank you again for all the encouragement and prayers.
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Update and some context: my son is just under 2 and has been to the ER and PICU multiple times before this current event. His past hospital stays have been for respiratory distress from the common cold.
On Thursday morning we discovered he had vomited through the night and probably had a stomach bug. Since then he has not eaten or kept down any fluids. Yesterday evening he became severely dehydrated along with a persistent fever of 105 while on medication. We took him to the ER and he was soon admitted. He got worse overnight and earlier today had a severe episode of losing fluids (to not be graphic) for 30-45 min. Thankfully he has been more stable this evening but continues to have a fever of 102 with ongoing vomiting but less frequent.
He has tested positive for rotavirus, and clearly has a severe case, despite being vaccinated.
Thank you for all your thoughtful comments and prayers. I’ll update more when I hopefully have better news to share.
Lastly, my wife is the hero running on 2 hours of sleep taking the best care of him.
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Please pray for my young son. He’s been in the hospital since last night for a bad stomach bug and he is not improving at this time.
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@mattvanswol @market_sleuth Beautifully said. Your dogs life saved yours. May both your hearts be peaceful. 🙏🏻❤️⭐️
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Struggling to not cry while writing this.
Sadly, our 10 year old Golden Retriever, Winston, has been diagnosed with an aggressive form of bone cancer.
It is not survivable.
I got Winston at the lowest point in my life, and in so many ways, he saved me.
I was an alcoholic, single, so so depressed.
I was a bitter, angry, selfish person.
...and I knew it
So upon recommendation of a friend, I got Winston.
And he changed my fucking life.
I learned structure.
I learned how to talk to strangers.
I went outside every day on runs and walks.
He gave me the discipline to wake up early.
He gave me a reason to not stay out late.
I learned that doing the right thing daily is what changes you, slowly.
And because Winston needed me, I started becoming someone worth needing.
But then, he didn't just become my dog.
He became my wife's dog.
My kid's dog.
And he loved them with the passion of a thousand fiery suns.
And I don’t think I’ll ever be able to explain what it means to watch a dog learn to love your kids as much as you do.
He's the greeter.
He's my shadow.
A peacekeeper.
The one constant, no matter what kind of day we’ve had.
I'm gonna miss you so much.
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$ASTS: Just going to repost this damn near perfect prediction regarding the next several days of price action after Jan. 9th.
It doesn't often happen this cleanly, but I sold my Jan 30th $100 calls when we hit the upper boundary line of the current channel.
The SP fell to high 80's to 90 range, as expected.
I loaded Feb 20th $120 calls the past two days.
Called for a move up to 105-106 range.
We're currently at 103.52 and climbing.
Rinse and repeat!
GLTA and NFA...
Staudinger@Staudinger333
$ASTS: As noted in the last post, there will be fluctuations on the path to $110+. I think we may see a pull back into the 90.3-93.0 range (purple rectangle) in the next few days. This would be an excellent retest of the penultimate high in the current channel uptrend. I unloaded 60% of my Jan $100 calls when we hit the upper channel boundary this morning and will look to reload the Jan 30 or Feb $100 calls if we hit in the low 90's. GLTA and NFA...
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