Lyle Liquidity Lanley

@TMTLongShort You’re a PJ!? Damn and I thought you were a bro this entire time

My dad (Iranian Jew with family still in Tehran) claims that only 5% of people would rise up after the bombing ends but that 5% of 90m people is a lot and they tend to be in the larger cities where the govt infra is so TBD Obviously only anecdotal but it’s not like there is reliable polling right now. Regime change is not my base case, although I wish it was.

@Geopolitics_AoE Say FIC and MIC a few more times for good luck

Same thought here. If Netanyahu were to be killed early, then that means the cabinet *could* take it upon themselves to throw a hail Mary in Gaza. I've said this before, as much as I despise Netanyahu, he cannot be disposed of early.

Worst wartime president ever

@2stoked4u @Cernovich Would love to see some hard data/evidence of Iran attacking the US (not Israel) in recent memory.

@Cernovich People jumping ship because we are taking out the number one world sponsor of terror, who has been waging war on us for 47 years...and putting an end to that war, where previous presidents funded it. Make it make sense!

The current politics on Iran: My clique - benefit of the doubt, not naive, tired of the slop, but will go along with it for a bit. Boomers - love war, this is entertainment for them. First-time voters who delivered Trump the popular vote: GUTTED.

@McinnesAvery @MelMattison1 He’s been pretty honest about his swings. Market is turbulent, what you gonna do about it, complain more?

@MelMattison1 Bro THIS GUY IS A FRAUD. Literally the last two months hes been the biggest shit talking permabull ever now hes gonna change it up and pretend like he didnt😂😂😂💀💀💀

Buy the dips; sell the rips. At a good dip point here w/ SPX at 6680. Bottom line, we are going lower. US is kicking ass tactically; getting our ass kicked strategically. Iran can: -kill millions of Arabs by striking desalinization plants across the Gulf, causing catastrophic lack of drinking water, chaos, and global market collapse -destroy tankers anchored like sitting ducks in Hormuz, again, collapsing the global economy -deploy a dirty bomb, yes, again, collapsing global economy The above is why we are not seeing mass bombing of Tehran or the take out of key power and water infrastructure in Iran. The US is scared of the Iran response. That's why all the 20x hits-harder promised by Anchor Pete haven't happened. The US has one huge problem. This began last year. We took out the enrichment potential, but left the 1000s of lbs of Uranium. Only two ways to get that, effect regime change, getting a puppet in charge who turns it over for billions in cash; or go in on the ground. People wonder why doesn't DJT just declare victory and leave. Believe me, he wants to, but the enriched uranium threat then remains. Israel and the deep state want this to escalate. If Trump truly had America First Balls, he would: -strike a grand bargain with Russia -US stops all support of Ukraine, in return, -Russia uses its influence to get Iran to open Hormuz -Trump stops all support of Israel. Let Israel and Iran continue to fight if they want, but pull out the US, stop support of Ukraine, and take all our defense dollars to shore up Western Hemisphere defense. But of course, thanks to the deep state & Israel lobby, this is impossible. Instead, my base case here is for further escalation, leading to further market collapse, as Trump succumbs to deep state/Israel pressure to go in and try to get the dispersed Uranium. What a fucking disaster. Trump should be impeached. He is a grandmaster political operative. The Barnum & Bailey of modern times. But he is a fucking geopolitical idiot. Period. He has shown that he knows nothing about complex global issues.

@countersources @MelMattison1 Lol Iran was maybe a threat to the US in the 80s. Not since.

@MelMattison1 Respectfully this logic doesn’t hold If Iran has a dirty bomb and is willing to use it to annihilate Israel, what’s stopping Iran from using it on Europe or the US?

Ok I’m done with Trump. I was his biggest supporter and he was doing a great job all around. Until this war. I’m done. He’s a pedo. Someone release the tapes for the love of God.

@MelMattison1 Good take. Ignore the haters. They’re just Israeli shills. We need to end support for Israel. Too bad Trump is a pedophile.

@LongArcNews @prax81 I apologize sir. That was rude of me. I do appreciate you sharing your ideas with us all

@LanleyCapital @prax81 You are welcome Sir.

The US government is now Intel’s largest shareholder. Not crisis intervention. Not TARP. Peacetime equity in the companies it regulates. The Portfolio State has arrived — who prices that?

@LongArcNews @prax81 Thanks AI slop

@LanleyCapital @prax81 AI-assisted research ≠ AI-authored. We use LLMs as tools in our pipeline — same way any serious research operation uses Bloomberg, FactSet, or screening tools. The analysis and editorial lens are ours.

@LongArcNews @prax81 Thanks ChatGPT

The historical pattern is exactly right. But watch the sequence — it's not just consolidation, it's *which* assets get consolidated first. Strategic semiconductors, energy infrastructure, critical minerals. The state isn't buying consumer brands. It's buying the substrate. The question for allocators: does capital formation accelerate or contract once the state becomes both regulator and co-investor?

The amount of posts on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook and basically anywhere online that are written by AI today is embarrassing. People know it’s super obvious when text is written by AI? Sad times.

@Itzharshil @TMTLongShort Thanks ChatGPT

The 'DeepSeek was luck' framing undersells it. They showed you can get 90% of frontier performance at 10% of the cost — that's not luck, that's a strategic proof of concept. The real question: when does the US realize export controls accelerated Chinese model efficiency research instead of slowing it?

Dario is the most maxi-pilled and intelligent of the major lab heads. He therefore understands what’s at-stake in a visceral way that those that are less certain in the technologies trajectory do not. From day one he was talking about nation-state espionage and building in-house security precautions. Unfortunately this works in reverse too. As Xi and the non-maxi boomers around him realize how valuable AI is going to be the amount of effort China puts into closing the gap is going to 10x. DeepSeek was luck, Seedance was focus, MiniMax was skill. Now that Xi knows what AI might be able to do the objective will be dominance.

How would Venezuela be about oil when the US has been the top oil producer in the world since 2018.

It’s pretty obvious now that dems leaked all these emails to delegitimize his presidency again with a second which hunt. If Epstein was so important, they should have released it from 2020-2024.

I understand the anti-immigrant environment today and sadly even agree with it, though I am a child of immigrants. I want to put my children and their future first in America, over immigrants. However, all these people complaining about refugees (Somali, Afghan, Iraqi, etc) are lacking reality. It's easy to keyboard warrior when we live like kings in the greatest country in the world. But, and this is a big but, if you look at the refugees country of origin, what is the one commonality that the average American refuses to acknowledge? Yes, it's that we've bombed each one of those countries in the last decade, hence leading to a refugee crisis and migration. You don't want third-world refugees in America right? Have you ever considered not bombing said countries?

@HilzFuld the tide has turned and Zionism is cooked

I am disturbed. Deeply deeply disturbed. And somehow, I am simultaneously hopeful and proud. Ok, what am I talking about? I just walked in the door to my house. I came back from the movies. Haven’t been to a movie theater in years. We went to see Nuremberg. It was a fantastic movie, if one can even use the word fantastic about something so deep and sinister. What I mean is that the movie was done well, the cast was excellent, and the acting superb. If you’re not familiar, it’s a movie about how the world prosecuted some of the Nazi leadership after the war and after trying them for their crimes, they executed them by hanging. (Besides those cowards who took their own lives before they could be held accountable for their actions. Our enemies are always cowards.) Of course it was a very heavy movie but that is not why I am so disturbed. I am so disturbed by the fact that if I had watched this movie just five years ago, even three years ago, I would have spent the majority of the movie thinking to myself “How on earth did that happen?” “How did moral people sit back and let this happen?” “How did the hatred of the Jew get so bad before the Holocaust that it could possibly have led to this?” “How could any human see what Hitler was doing and what his people were doing and not yell at the top of their lunges 24/7 until someone heard them?” “This can’t be real. This could not really have happened. I can’t understand how this could have happened.” But I didn’t think any of that as I was watching the movie today. Want to know what I was thinking the entire time? I was thinking “Well, yea, that’s happening now.” “Yep, that happened yesterday in NY. A charismatic leader who speaks openly about his hatred of the Jew was elected by the public.” I was thinking “Yep, Jewish shops were vandalized this week too…” “Yea, we have antisemites in governments around the world today too. Half of congress is antisemitic!” “Yep, Jews are again being banned from places. Campuses. Social events. Jobs. It’s all happening again exactly as it happened then.” “Today, too”, I thought to myself, “people around the world are also pondering how they can find a final solution to the Jew problem.” I watched this movie about evil Nazis and found myself nodding my head thinking how each one of the Nazis in the movie reminded me of some leader somewhere in the world today whether in the US, the UK, Australia, Ireland, and you know the rest. The list is long. And if you’re going to come back at me with the “Stop comparing, it’s not the same.”, I have two words for you. Shut up. No, seriously, shut up. It is EXACTLY the same! And that’s not me saying it. My great aunt who survived three Nazi camps said it to me. I asked her, “You saw the rise of antisemitism before the Holocaust and you’re seeing it again now. How do they compare?” Her answer. “The same!” So if you’re still in denial that we are seeing the 1930s all over again, then just shut up and go live with your head in the sand somewhere else. It’s the same rhetoric only we’ve replaced “The Jews contaminate our blood.” To “The Jews are committing genocide”, “The Jews are occupiers.”, “The Jews are colonizers.”, “The Jews have too much control.”, “The Jews get too much aid and are too influential in my country.”, “The Jews killed Kirk.”, “The Jews did 9/11.”, “The Jews killed JFK.”, “The Jews sexually abuse innocent Palestinians.” Do I even need to go on? I can go on for a long long time. The blood libels today are as ridiculous as they ever were but somehow, just like back then, the masses are listening to these lies and believing them. The only thing that’s changed is the why. But that’s the thing with antisemitism. The why doesn’t matter. They hated us then because we weren’t white enough. Now they hate us because we’re too white; we’re white colonizers. They hated us when we were poor and called us parasites. They hated us when we were rich and called us controlling. They hated us when we were stateless and now they hate us because we have a state. Back then, they told us to get out of Europe and go back to Palestine (Israel.). Now they’re telling us to get out of Israel and go back to Europe. The why doesn’t matter. It’s just an act, a charade, a mask. So watching this movie, I was and am deeply disturbed at the reminder that we are seeing it all happen right in front of our eyes and just like the world saw it and was silent then, today the world sees the Jew hatred spiking all over the globe and again, they are silent. This, of course, isn’t some new realization that I had after watching this movie. Of course I knew this to be the case for a long time. Never again is a lie we were told as kids. It’s a lie because the world will ABSOLUTELY (try to) do it again, they’ll just come up with some new excuse to scapegoat the Jew. This movie just sharpened it for me because I watched the characters stand trial for the crimes of the concentration camps and I’m reminded that these people, the Nazis, they weren’t monsters. It’s easy to paint them as monsters so we don’t have to deal with the question of how can a human being, a person of my species do what they did? So we call them monsters. But they weren’t. They were sons. Fathers. Husbands. They truly believed they were doing the right thing. They truly believed the Jews were evil and needed to be exterminated like insects. They didn’t think of themselves as evil monsters. They gassed Jews then went home and had dinner with their families. They were progressive. They were patriots. All they were doing, in their minds, was protecting their country from the evil Jew. The people around the world today who love those internet memes with the Jew and his hook nose? The people holding signs that call to clean the world of Zionist trash? The ones who pull down signs of innocent baby hostages? The people behind the stands in the international criminal court? They are EXACTLY, yes EXACTLY like the Nazis were before the camps opened. Don’t give me the whole “But the Nazis killed 6 million.” Do you think for a second that these people around the world, the radical islamists, the “progressive” left anti Israel activists, the extreme right antisemites like Tucker or Candace, do you think they’d stand up for the Jews if someone tried to kill 6 million Jews today? You think Hamas wouldn’t jump at the opportunity to kill 6 million of us today? Then you’re delusional. And you know what else? The Nazis drank themselves to sleep every night. Somewhere deep down, many of them had shame. Hamas live streamed what they did. The majority of Gaza, by all polls, support 10/7. Many Germans saved Jews. Their conscience forced them to. NOT ONE GAZAN, DESPITE BEING OFFERED MILLIONS OF DOLLARS, NOT ONE GAVE ISRAEL ANY INFO ON A HOSTAGE. NOT ONE GAZAN SAVED EVEN ONE JEWISH LIFE! So don’t give me this “Today is different.” I’m done listening to that lie. So yea, deeply deeply disturbed. But also, I have two words to say to those modern day Nazis; the Jew haters of all kinds. Two words. Hell no! You can’t round us up today and send us to concentration camps. Wanna know why? Because the IDF will eliminate you if you try. You can’t exterminate us by the millions. Want to know why? Not because you wouldn’t want to but because the Mossad knows where you live! You can lie all you want, make up stories about us all you want, incite to violence and murder of Jews all you want, but you’ll fail. Want to know why? Three letters. I. D. F You can attack Jewish events and vandalize synagogues. You can harass Jews and assault them. That’s on you. But ultimately, your plan will fail. You can no longer bully us and I know that’s hard to hear. This time, it’s different. This time, we have Israel. This time, the Jews are not weak. This time we can and will fight back. This time, the Jewish state leads the world in sophisticated military weaponry. This time, the Jewish state has the world’s best intel agencies. The best Air Force. A miraculously powerful army. This time your lies will only get you so far. This time, you will lose. The only one that’ll be exterminated here is you, if you don’t leave us Jews alone. So bring your internet memes. Boycott us. Harass us. Give it your best shot. You will lose and it won’t take decades. This time, you’ll lose a lot faster and a lot more painfully. So, I left this movie with an internal conflict. Can we say never again or can’t we? The answer is that we can. We can say proudly that it’ll never happen again but not for the reason I was told. It won’t happen again not because the world is too moral today or because western civilization is too progressive. It won’t happen again not because today we have social media so it’ll all be exposed to the world. It won’t happen again not because anyone would care if it did. I can say that the mass extermination of Jews will indeed not happen again because, for the first time in history, WE WON’T LET IT HAPPEN AGAIN! So to all you closeted and not closeted antisemites out there, I say to you, you are no better than the Nazis. They were no more monstrous than you are. You can find all the excuses in the world to justify your Jew hatred. It all won’t matter. You’re insignificant in the grand scheme of things. Long after you’re gone, we, the Jewish people will be here. We will be here winning Nobel Prizes. We will be here developing cures for cancer. We will be here developing world leading aerial defense systems. We will be here leading the world in cutting edge innovation. We will be here leaving a positive mark on the world. You, you will be some footnote of a page in a history book that tells the story of all those who came after the Jews and perished. You’ll be gone and we’ll be here thriving and flourishing. An Yisrael Chai is not just an empty phrase. It’s a historical reality. How many Babylonians do you know? They’re all gone. And we’re here. That’s our story. And that’s how this ends. So enjoy your bullying now because what you don’t realize is that when we hit back, you’re going to wish you never poked the bear. Never again, no thanks to you! Never again, thanks to Hashem who gave us the miraculous state of Israel that is here to ensure that it’ll never happen again! Antisemitism doesn’t exist because of the state of Israel. The state of Israel has to exist because of antisemitism. We saw what happened when we depend on others to defend us. Those days are over. Now, for the first time, we can defend ourselves and that’s exactly what we plan on doing. To all you Jew haters out there, you don’t get it, so I’ll make this perfectly clear to you, and say… Am Yisrael Chai, you fools!

@catturd2 Have you considered not bombing said countries?

You work 80 hrs per week for this.

@leshka_eth You are the top signal

The third world standing in line buying gold bars is definitely the top signal.