Larry__VA

@alt_w_v_g Almost 1 million of their subscribers are "lifetime subscribers" purchased before 2008. They don't pay anything.

Ran some diligence on SiriusXM this weekend Not because anyone asked Because my 14-year-old nephew connected his phone to my car via Bluetooth, played a Spotify playlist, and asked me what the "SXM" button was for I didn't have an answer So I pulled the 10-K SiriusXM is an $8.56B revenue company with nearly $10B in debt and a $7.4B market cap Read that again The debt is larger than the company Their business model, simplified: 1. Pay automakers to install radios nobody asked for 2. Give every new car buyer a free trial they didn't request 3. Hope they forget to cancel 4. Charge them $25.99/month for something their phone does for $10.99 That's it. That's the model. They have 33M subscribers. Sounds impressive until they lost 301,000 self-pay subscribers last year. And hundreds of thousands the year before that. Revenue has declined three consecutive years The average subscriber is 35-64, male, household income over $150K. Over half have been paying for 10+ years. These aren't loyal customers These are people whose spouses haven't noticed the $25.99 charge on the Amex yet The crown jewel of the portfolio is Howard Stern. They pay him roughly $100M a year. He works three days a week. His show averages 125K daily listeners. That's $800 per listener per year My analyst did the math three times because he thought he was wrong He wasn't For that price, you could buy each listener a Spotify family plan, an Audible subscription, and still have enough left for AirPods Speaking of Spotify. Nearly 290M premium subscribers. Growing double digits. $10.99/month. Available on every device ever made. SiriusXM. 33M subscribers. Shrinking. $25.99/month. Requires a satellite. Spotify's full-year revenue grew 19%. SiriusXM's declined 2%. Spotify trades at 74x earnings. SiriusXM trades at 5x. The market is not confused about which direction these businesses are headed Their growth strategy is called the "trial funnel." There are 7.3M people driving cars with free SiriusXM trials. The conversion rate is not publicly disclosed. Probably because it's embarrassing They have 180M "enabled vehicles" in the U.S. They have 33M subscribers. That's an 18% attach rate on hardware they already paid to install. 82% of the cars with their radios in them are generating zero revenue In any other industry an 18% hit rate gets you fired In satellite radio, it gets you a seat on the NYSE Adjusted EBITDA margin is 31%. Looks healthy. Until you realize "adjusted" is doing a LOT of heavy lifting in a company that posted a $2.08B net loss the year prior. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.73B that same year The distance between those two numbers is called addbacks And they're working overtime 2026 guidance: flat revenue, flat EBITDA, slightly fewer subscribers. The CEO called this stability and meaningful progress. On Wall Street, we call this managed decline Warren Buffett owns 35.4% of this company. This is the most confusing part. The man who said "be fearful when others are greedy" bought a satellite radio company in the age of Bluetooth. His entry was a Liberty Media arb play that accidentally became a long-term hold. The stock is down over 50% from its highs. I don't know why he's still in. You don't know why. His shareholders definitely don't know why. The bull thesis: SiriusXM has 33M people who have been paying $15/month for a decade and have no plans to stop. That's $6B in recurring revenue from people who may not even remember they're subscribed. Churn is 1.5%. Lower than most SaaS companies. The bear thesis: Every teenager alive today has never used a car radio Both are probably right SiriusXM's competitive moat is not content. It's not technology. It's not brand. It's the 47 minutes it takes to cancel over the phone SiriusXM isn't a bad company. It's a case study in what happens when your moat is consumer apathy and your growth strategy requires General Motors. Plz fix. Thx. Sent from my iPhone

@vocalcry I believe it's already started ... x.com/i/status/20372…

This would be a great weekend for an "alien invasion"

@RNAiAnalyst Is this from your arwrfans account ?

$wve i (virtually) participated in the study just to show you what a 3% smaller waist looks like in real life. I am wearing here the same belt btw.

@yosoymario91 @SarAllyce In two years, I saw an occasional guy in reformer Pilates. I saw 0 in Pure Barre !

Entering the pilates class as a man

@shhudso2 @money_cruncher Also there a few expenses like k-12 bus transportation that Coverdell with cover. The 529 k-12/homeschooling expenses were widely broadened in the bigbeuatifulbill, but some states do not recognize. Anything you can do helps. You can transfer Coverdell to 529, if things change

@shhudso2 @money_cruncher You can transfer out (with an admin fee), but states like California and Alabama actually charge a percentage of your assets to transfer out. Some states are on shaky ground financially and could force you to invest in state bonds during a financial crisis or deep recession.

If you have kids, please get a 529 plan: • many states have a tax deduction for investing • money grows tax free • tax free withdrawals for education (tutoring, college, private schools, certificates, etc) • could rollover up to $35,000 to their Roth IRA It’s the best way to set up your child for success, even for $100/mo. No brainer.

At midnight, the regime raided 18‑year‑old Melika Azizi’s home and dragged her to Lakan Prison in Rasht. She’s been beaten, cut off from her family, and sentenced to death. In court she looked the judge in the eye and shouted: “You’ve spilled the blood of so many young people, how can I stay silent? It doesn’t matter to me, kill me too.” This is a teenager whose “crime” was courage. We can’t let them execute her in silence. #MelikaAzizi #StopExecutionsInIran

#OOTT - A new haven for degenerate oil and gas traders

This is great ! "High security environment"

Incredible! All the headlines about how vegetarian diets prevent cancer were based off of a pooled cohort study where they forgot to correct for multiple comparisons When you correct for them, the only surviving association is vegetarianism increasing one type of cancer's risk

Mice exposed to cellphone radiation lived longer, and had a 53% lower risk of death 👀

@senatorshoshana Google "stop zoom from following my face". Good luck !

Does anyone know how to stop Zoom from following your face? I can't find any setting that fixes it and it's only some Zooms. Keeps cutting off my face

@senatorshoshana Keep up the good work !

I constantly think about how much faster I would have been diagnosed with Crohn's, endometriosis, fibromyalgia, and the rest, if I had AI and websites with reviews of doctors when I was 13.

stop spending money on Claude Code. Chipotle's support bot is free:

This is the end of privacy ... (not that there was much left of it)

Democracy in action in California ...

@ShaleTier7 Have you checked with Open Claw ?

DOES ANYONE KNOW IF YOU CAN RETURN 55 POUNDS OF ALASKAN KING CRAB?

@Biomaven @JamieHeard5 $tpzef is like a tollbooth on part of the Canadian LNG exports. $glng does liquification of South American and African sources, and Argentina has huge gas reserves that are just being developed. I own $ppl, too

@JamieHeard5 I own Pembina - seems like a safe long term play on Canadian LNG exports to Asia.

Two thoughts on Qatar's LNG Outage (1) The ME outages change Global S&D Quickly Between Ras Laffan, Leviathan, and other small facilities we've got about 12 bcfpd of LNG off line, and the FM's are currently for at least 4 weeks. After 4 weeks, we've taken Global LNG Supply growth down 1 Bcfpd for the whole year. After 3-4 Months, LNG Supply in 2026 would shrink relative to 2025 despite all the US capacity coming on this year. After 6 Months, Global supply growth of gas from all sources (LNG, Pipe, Domestic) is now negative for the year. (2) What is energy security worth? Well the Arithmetic is: if due to a security issue, you miss (or create) a supply shock that pops LNG prices $10, thats $3.65 billion over a year per 1 Bcfpd you don't have online. That discount is also the premium of having the facility that is still online. If a facility costs ~$2k/t the capital to build a 1 bcfpd of capacity is ~$14bn. In one supply shock you're getting a 25% return on capital event that is going to be enjoyed in part by liquefiers who have some 'open' uncontracted volumes, and merchants / traders who are holding the contracted 'right way' risk. This informs strategy and geography for new facilities. If one jurisdiction is likely going to miss/create the supply shock 1/2/3 times in 50 years, and one jurisdiction is likely to 'catch' the supply shocks in each of those events, you're going to be $3bn/$6bn/$9bn more interested in building the facility in this secure region all else equal (time value aside). If you're counting, this decade we've had two supply shocks within 5 years and the first one lasted 2 years. This puts Canada, US and Mexico in the 'cat bird seat' for new LNG infrastructure development today. Canada /MX specifically have edge right now because they can build pacific facing plants that can get to Asia who is the larger consumer of ME product, US can't for 'reasons'. LNG Canada just got $3.6bn more reasons to build Ph2 and we're just one week in.

$makof will help to play catch-up