Latte The Dog

Most investors this weekend vs Most investors at year-end? Act on local price weakness with a long-term mindset! $SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $NDX $AAPL $GOOGL $BTC $ETH $GLD $TLT

Fact-based reminder, just because 2 lines appear to be traveling the same path, on a chart, does not mean they are causal or correlated. X can be a dangerous place when following the herd! $SPX $SPY $QQQ $MACRO $STUDY $# economy

Typical Day as a Hedge Fund PM 6:00 - Wake up, check what Trump tariffed overnight. Cambodia up +200%, Paraguay -3% (they said thanks). 6:05 - Brew some coffee. 6:10 - Trump tweets that the laws are rigged, since he cannot tariff Arizona. Mentally scroll the portfolio for exposure… 6:15 - Check what happened in Asia and Europe. 6:22 - Trump announces that hot dogs will join the food pyramid. Bans hot dog exports. Fortunately our book dodged that one. 6:30 - Drink some coffee, talk to wife, pray Trump will spend the morning golfing so I can do some actual work…. 6:31 - Trump announces that oil at $65 is too high. Threatens anyone who isn’t producing more oil. 6:32 - Top 5 position announces earnings, want to join the earnings call at 7am, but Trump just scheduled a press conference then, and he’s looking unpredictable. 7:02 - Trump announces that Japan can now export golf balls tariff-free, in honor of Abe letting him cheat at golf. Join the earnings call instead. 7:06 - Futures plunge 65 handles in a single tick, frantically leave the earnings call and go back to whatever Trump is still yapping about in his press conference. 7:10 - Scroll through premarket quotes. $NVDA and $PLTR are both up 5% b/c it’s a day ending in ‘Y’ but SPZ are now down 80 handles. 7:15 - Trump changed his mind and SPZ are now up 25 handles as everyone rushes to cover their short. (I re-join the earnings call) 7:30 - Some broker I’ve never heard of just downgraded a top 5 position and it’s down 15% on 300 shares traded. I’m pretty confident it will close around there too. (I crack open a beer as I skim his downgrade report, realizing that nothing productive will happen today…😩😩) 8:00 - An LP calls to remind me of some ShitCoin he recommended that’s now up 1800% since he recommended it. 8:09 - 10-yr bonds gap down 17 bps, but all I can find is a tweet from Bessent about how great Main Street is doing. 8:15 - Some sell side asshole cold-calls me to see if I want a copy of his upgrade report on the AI sector. Tells me that “it’s going to be big and you don’t want to miss it.” 8:20 - Check my email, do 10 minutes of actual work. 8:30 - Trump threatens Brazil, I realize our BZ exposure is gonna get thumped on the open. (Crack open a 2nd beer) 8:33 - Reminisce about how productive I was, since Biden wouldn’t even wake up until noon. 8:40 - Chat with my CFO for 19 mins about some new compliance form we need to file. 8:59 - Trump Tweets about how stupid Powell is. Futures are back down 30 handles. 9:04 - Join a call 4 mins late with an endowment that wants an update, but 100% will never invest. “BTW - we need you to update the DDQ as we’ve changed our format” 😡😡 9:29 - Casino is opening. Let’s see what happens. 9:32 - I’m bored. Go back to reading emails. Turns out the govt created another new form we ALSO need to fill out… 10:00 - We’re actually up 50bps. 10:03 - Now down 175bps. Trump just threatened to bomb Europe. 10:06 - Tweets he was just joking about Europe. But those guys need to get their shit together bc he might still bomb them. 10:08 - Ready for bourbon. Beer won’t cut it… 10:30 - EIA oil inventory shows yet another massive draw. Oil drops 5% anyway. 10:40 - Don Jr’s latest SPAC rallies 300% on rumors it may launch a new ShitCoin 10:45 - Friend calls to cry about how cheap all his names are. We both agree we were idiots to invest in businesses with earnings. 11:22 - Trump reminds everyone about how much Putin likes him. 11:40 - Realize I’m now too tweaked to sit in the office. Turn off the machines and go get lunch with a friend who’s also gonna bitch about how stupid markets have become. 12:05 - Hostess at restaurant pitches me some ShitCoin. Claims she’s up a few million on it 12:07 - Friend starts bitching about how stupid it is to be an investor under Trump, and how we all made money under Biden. I agree with him, but we both agree it would be even stupider under Kamala…😩😩

Goldman Sachs: “markets might not have bottomed” Wells Fargo: “could retest the lows” Morgan Stanley: “retesting the low end of 5,000 range is feasible” JP Morgan: “sees S&P500 falling to 4,000 in worst case scenario” Bank of America: “sell the rebound in US stocks” 🤔

The White House says President Trump sent this note to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It reads: “You are, as usual, ‘too late.’”

The United States of America is the greatest country in the world yet it has to suffer with the highest interest rates of any first class country. Our Federal Reserve Chair is obviously afraid of his own shadow. What was really sad about Powell’s comments is that he stated that tariffs contributed to “price increases in some of the relevant categories, like personal computers.” You would think Powell would know that there are no tariffs on personal computers. They currently don’t exist. Semiconductors and computer tariffs come out after the Commerce Department finishes its analysis. These high Interest Rates make no sense. Enough is enough!!!

I thought stocks like war

Strive CEO is raising to buy beaten-down public companies trading below NAV… Then flip their treasuries into Bitcoin. That's easily ~$500B in dead capital just sitting there—waiting to be stripped down and converted to BTC

An across the board cooler-than-expected May CPI Core prices rose 0.13% Headline was 0.08% The flatness in the y/y measure (headline edging up to 2.35% from 2.31%, and core to 2.79% from 2.78%) overstates how mild this reading is.

Declines in car and apparel prices—which some forecasters had thought would show early tariff effects in May—led to a cooler-than-anticipated core CPI reading last month