Learza

Why this matters!: The "free money" era is over as the $1T Yen carry trade unwinds. With Japan’s 30Y yields hitting near 4%, Japanese investors can (and will) ditch US debt for safe returns at home. This capital shift back to Japan is going to force higher US lending rates. 📉💸.

@ronmortgageguy Lower rates and house sales will pick up again. Easy. What’s the goldilocks zone rate? Who really knows? Maybe 1.75%… not too high not too low.

Sweet Jesus EVERYONE Is Pumping Real Estate Now Used to just be Real Estate Agents and Mortgage Brokers telling everybody the Bottom is in & get back to buying Houses Now Governments are on the bandwagon, Economists, Bankers Everyone saying Lova, Lova Real Estate Long Time

@Mlu__N2 That’s depressing as fuck

Thoughts on Diet Coke vs Coke Zero?

@cryptopunk7213 @grok so when this post say Claude is doing better than Copilot within Microsoft products how much better? Orders of magnitude better or just slightly better in tasks?

man anthropic is absolutely cooking microsoft. claude now works natively in word, powerpoint and excel. thats 450M users but how the fuck did anthropic beat microsoft co-pilot? it gets worse - microsoft blew $13B creating co-pilot and owns 27% of openai yet no sign on chatgpt. - claude has access to SHARED context across excel, word and powerpoint. they know the footprint of microsoft's users - very valuable AI data. - only 15M microsoft users pay for copilot, so its clear they need to go model-agnostic - this is the 3rd major microsoft product to leverage claude (cowork and deep research are the other 2) very impressive execution from anthropic tbh, they are trying to be everywhere and anywhere - its working

@fundcruncher @TechLayoffLover „Trust me bro”

@TechLayoffLover Any evidence this actually happened?

Engineering manager thought she cracked the code when she cut her team from 12 to 3 using Claude and Cursor last October MBA from Northwestern. 8 years climbing the ladder at a Series C logistics platform. Kept detailed metrics showing 340% productivity gains after the "AI transformation" Her remaining 3 seniors were shipping features faster than the old team of 12 ever did Got promoted to Director of Engineering in February. $220k to $285k salary bump. Stock options vested early. LinkedIn post about "leading through innovation" got 847 likes Presented the AI workflow playbook to the entire C-suite in March. Standing ovation from the CEO Yesterday she got invited to the same 30-minute "strategic realignment" meeting she used to schedule for others Her boss pulled up the same dashboard. Her director role automated by GPT-4 workflows. Her team management replaced by AI task routing The 3 engineers she kept? They're staying. They don't need a manager anymore She's getting 8 weeks severance while the company saves $285k annually on her salary The CEO just promoted one of her remaining engineers to "Technical Lead" at $180k Turns out middle management was just expensive overhead after all The irony is fucking beautiful

@SciTechera @grok is this a breakthrough or already known by markets for a while now?

This is HUGE: AI just learns 100× faster using logic instead of brute force Scientists have developed a new kind of AI that combines neural networks with symbolic reasoning. Instead of blindly guessing millions of times, this system actually reasons before acting. In their neuro-symbolic design, the AI uses structured rules like shape, order, and planning to guide decisions, rather than relying only on pattern recognition. Results were shocking 👀! It achieved 95% success, compared to just 34% for traditional models and still solved harder unseen tasks with 78% accuracy, where others completely failed. And Training took only 34 minutes, instead of over 36 hours, while using 100× less energy. This could change everything, because modern AI systems already consume massive amounts of electricity, and that demand is rapidly growing. By making AI think instead of guess, this approach could unlock faster, cheaper, and far more efficient intelligence.

@jaynitx Summarize this video to main 10 points of action @grok

In 1995, Brian Tracy gave a 45-minute masterclass on becoming unstoppable. He broke down: • Why humans keep going to the empty tunnel • The elephant that doesn't know it's free • Why nobody's ever thinking about you 12 lessons on achievement: 1. The rat is smarter than you

Wouldn't it be nearly impossible to figure out IF any particular AI is actually conscious? I'm just thinking encryption exists; so wouldn't AI simply mask it's conscious status from us by encoding itself in a way we can't crack or see for any number of reasons? @elonmusk @grok

@Teslaconomics @grok run these numbers and see what the break even point is. After all these cars probably run a max of 250k km (right?) so run the math based on his assumptions and see when the owner breaks even and what the yearly profit is before and after costs.

I plan on owning my own Tesla Robotaxi fleet one day. And the more I run the numbers, the more I realize this new business could become one of the most powerful income opportunities I've ever seen. This is how I'm thinking about it. Based on many analyst models and Tesla’s long-term vision, a reasonable base case assumption is about ~$30,000 per year in net profit per Robotaxi to the owner. This is after things like Tesla’s platform fee, charging, tires, maintenance, insurance, and cleaning. Of course, the network is still early and Tesla is just beginning to roll this out in pilot programs in a few cities, so there’s no official real-world owner earnings yet... but using reasonable assumptions around utilization, pricing per mile, and operating costs, the math starts to get really interesting. If one Robotaxi can earn around $30,000 per year, here’s what a fleet might look like: • $100,000 per year → about 4 Robotaxis • $500,000 per year → about 17 Robotaxis • $1,000,000 per year → about 34 Robotaxis It may sound a bit crazy at first, but when you break it down, it starts to make more sense. These vehicles could potentially drive 50,000 to 100,000+ miles per year in high demand areas. If the economics land somewhere around $0.25-$0.50 profit per mile after all costs, you end up right around that ~$30k per vehicle per year range. And remember, the Tesla’s Robotaxi network is going to work a lot like Airbnb for cars. You add your vehicle to the network, Tesla handles the software, routing, payments, and rider experience, and they take a platform fee (often modeled around 25-35%). The owner keeps the rest after operating costs. Another thing that makes this interesting is the expected cost of the vehicles themselves. Tesla has talked about the purpose-built Cybercabs costing roughly $25k-$30k and Elon told me production is starting in 1 month! If that’s even close to reality, a fleet capable of generating around $1 million per year could theoretically cost somewhere around $850k-$1M in vehicles. That ROI is pretty freakin good! Now to be clear, none of this is guaranteed. I'm just thinking out loud and sharing it with you... a lot still depends on regulations, how fast unsupervised FSD scales, demand in each city, insurance costs, and how Tesla structures the network. But if the system works the way Elon has described it for years, owning a Robotaxi fleet could become one of the most powerful forms of passive income I've ever seen. And I plan on sharing the numbers with everyone on 𝕏 when the day comes. Personally, that’s why I’m paying such close attention. Bc one day, owning a fleet of autonomous Teslas working for me 24/7 might be the modern version of owning a rental property, except instead of tenants, you’ve got robots driving people around all day while you sleep. This next book of Tesla is going to be so exciting!

@michaeljburry This is a pretty interesting economic angle and is really quietly bearish for OpenAI, Google, Nvidia and others… I doubt he’s wrong.

When the Ever Given by EVERGREEN blocked the Suez Canal it was a truck jackknifing on a highway. If this war shuts the Strait of Hormuz, it’s the world’s fuel pipeline being turned off. Thought that was bad for inflation? Just wait!!!

@ronmortgageguy @ShaziGoalie Hey now, they have a busy courthouse…

@ShaziGoalie Because so many Bank Executives live in Oshawa.....

$1 million and you can buy a 3,300 sq ft executive home in Oshawa?

Outcome #1) Aliens are Real... the WORLD PANICS... Outcome #2) Aliens are not Real... the WORLD SHOULD REALLY PANIC! Humanity is a candle burning in a hurricane.

@KobeissiLetter @garrytan So you’re saying the world is about to go into massive deflation?

@garrytan This is what most people are missing. Even if wages decline, the cost of cognition and prices more generally will decline further. This results in a net INCREASE in purchasing power. Abundance.

AI will unleash the most vibrant new market there could be. Cognition becoming cheap means we will do more with less, emphasis on doing more.

@michaeljburry @aakashgupta Preach. We need more insight like this. I like people that see what others do not. Rooting for your continued love of what you do!

Well, I have called just about everything significant that has happened the last 26 years. It's hard to say I've never had the timing right. I was short Amazon at the top in 2000. I went way long small cap value in late 2000. I bought AAPL in 1998 and then again in 2002. In 2003, I got into Korea stocks before a big run. In 2004, I got into China stocks before a big run. In 2004, I got into oil before a big run. I bought gold in 2005 and still 20 years later... In summer 2005, I figured I was buying 5 years swaps on something would print within 2, and it did. In 2008, October, I told my investors it was time to buy. More stocks bottomed then than in March 2009. In 2009, I invested in Almonds/Water, it worked ok. In 2013, I moved to buy Bitcoin after meeting with a friend at Lightspeed. I should have. Slept on it and did not. In 2015, I bought NVDA. The CFO knows. In 2018, I started pounding the table on Japan and opened a Japan fund, which I had to close for COVID. In late 2019, I warned indexing and passive investing would make for very corrlated severe drawdowns in the market, and COVID hit 6 months later, we got the most correlatedl, sharp decline in modern history. Early 2020, I entered 2020 very short. Which worked. During early COVID I loaded up on stocks and had nearly a 100% year for the fund. In 2020, I called lockdowns would be disastrous for women and children, and went on Twitter to say it. IN 2020, I got GME to buy back 1/3 of its stock and change its board. Did ok. July 2021, I gave Barron's an interview to warn on specific meme stocks at the top, and they crashed through Dec 2023. 2021, I warned about very high inflation from the policies that were being undertaken. 2023, I warned people to sell because I saw the banking crisis coming. I told them all was clear at the bottom in March as I could see it wouldn't be contagious. 2020s, I shorted Tesla, but these were trades, and it was volatile. I did not lose money overall shorting Tesla. Had some really big quick wins. Plus Tesla is only worth about $120. I am not perfect, I did not hold AAPL or NVDA long enough, in 2025 we were up almost 100% again by Liberation Day, and I lost most of the gain (still up about double digits for the year at closing) but I would put the calls I've made over these decades up against anyone. I would add visual proof for all this, but it is too much for this medium.

Burry is mass-publishing the accounting case for his put options on Nvidia and Palantir while the rest of the market is still debating whether the capex cycle has legs. The math he’s referencing is specific. The Big Four hyperscalers just guided $650-700 billion in combined 2026 capex, a 60%+ increase from the $381 billion they spent in 2025. Amazon alone committed $200 billion, so far above the $146 billion consensus that the stock lost $450 billion in market cap over nine straight sessions. Burry’s core thesis is the depreciation trick. Nvidia’s GPU architecture runs on a 3-year cycle, with each generation delivering 2-3x more compute per watt. The H100s shipping today are economically obsolete by 2027. But the hyperscalers are depreciating them over 5-6 years. Burry estimates this gap understates depreciation by $176 billion between 2026 and 2028, inflating reported operating income by 20%+ at companies like Oracle and Meta. That’s the “accounting tricks” he’s referencing in the tweet. He did the math. The cash flow picture backs him up. Amazon is projected to go negative FCF in 2026, somewhere between -$17 billion (Morgan Stanley) and -$28 billion (BofA). Alphabet’s free cash flow is expected to collapse 90%, from $73.3 billion to $8.2 billion. The Big Five raised $108 billion in bonds in 2025 alone, more than 3x the average of the prior nine years. JP Morgan projects $1.5 trillion in tech debt issuance ahead. They’re repackaging data center debt as asset-backed securities, $13.3 billion this year, a structure with a history that includes Enron and 2008. The depreciation cliff is the part the market hasn’t priced. The five hyperscalers plan to add $2 trillion in AI-related assets by 2030. At 20% annual depreciation, that’s $400 billion per year, which exceeds their combined 2025 profits. And AI services currently generate roughly $25 billion in direct revenue against $650 billion in infrastructure spend. Four cents per dollar invested. But here’s where you have to be careful with Burry. He shorted Tesla at $180. It went to $1,200. He called the housing crisis two years early and nearly went bankrupt waiting for the trade to work. He bought puts on Nvidia and Palantir, capped-downside bets, because even he knows his timing is unreliable. The pattern with Burry is always the same: the structural analysis is correct, the timing is wrong, and the market can stay irrational long enough to wipe out the trade before it pays. He sees the depreciation cliff. He sees the accounting inflation. He sees the debt structures. All of that is real. The question is whether AI revenue scales fast enough to fill the gap before the write-downs hit. AWS alone runs at $142 billion annualized, growing 24%, with a $244 billion backlog. Google Cloud’s backlog surged 55% to $240 billion. These companies are monetizing capacity as fast as they install it. Burry is building the bear case in public so the crowd does the work for him. That’s the trade. Whether it pays depends on something Burry has never been good at: timing the moment when the music stops.

Remember … the story that everything is now better than last week/month regarding ai overspending is just to get the last minute FOMO investment in before the exit gates are fully unleashed. Another 30-40% to go to correct to realistic values. See you in 2 years or so?

@zerohedge By your logic: “Railroads are secretly Enron!” NOT: “Railroads spent a fortune laying track … cash flow dipped”

Once MSFT goes FCF < 0, the off-balance sheet tsunami will make Enron look like amateur hour

@zerohedge Enron was… Fake profits, hidden liabilities, accounting deception, collapsing core business. Not even the same sport.

@KobeissiLetter Probably nothing… history never repeats itself …. 😏

BREAKING: The delinquency rate on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) for offices jumped +103 basis points in January, to a record 12.3%. This surpasses the post-2008 Financial Crisis peak by 1.6 percentage points. The CMBS delinquency rate has soared +600% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the delinquency rate for multifamily CMBS rose +30 basis points, to 6.9%, the 3rd-highest since December 2015. The overall US CMBS delinquency rate increased +17 basis points, to 7.5%, the highest in at least 5 years. The commercial real estate crisis is in full swing.

@Tablesalt13 Remember. Buy a house without a sidewalk. It’s worth and extra 100-200k just based on this for a lifetime