Oil below $90 on Iran deal hopes. Oil above $97 when talks stall.
Energy prices are now a geopolitical instrument.
If your portfolio has zero energy exposure in 2026 you are making a very confident bet on diplomacy.
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Liquidity Journal
426 posts
Liquidity Journal
@LiquidityJL
retired banker, born to overthink markets, forced to explain them.
Orlando, FL Katılım Ekim 2010
111 Takip Edilen241 Takipçiler
@dougboneparth damn i missed the phase a birth am I doomed?
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What you should be doing with your money at any age:
Birth - investing
10s - investing
20s - investing
30s - investing
40s - investing
50s - investing
60s - investing
70s - investing
80s - investing
90s - investing
Dead - investing
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Everyone wants to know what the next themed trend is when the Space euphoria ends
It's Biotech
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@TriumphMarkets Suppliers choosing margins over volume on purpose is the part that makes this different from a typical supply cycle. This isn't a shortage waiting to be fixed, it's a shortage being managed
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This post has the right instinct. Here's the full picture before you trade on it.
RAMageddon is real - and deliberately engineered:
• DDR5 went from $6.84 in Sept 2025 to $27.20 in Dec 2025 - 297% in 3 months
• Goldman forecasts 4.9% DRAM undersupply in 2026 - worst in 15+ years
• Every HBM wafer requires 3x the capacity of a DDR5 wafer - $MU, $HXCO and $SSNLF are choosing margins over volume on purpose
• OpenAI's Stargate alone locked up ~40% of global DRAM output
The China disruption thesis is real but has a timeline problem:
• Chinese DRAM fabs (CXMT) are 2-3 generations behind on process nodes
• New fab capacity - including Micron's Idaho facility - doesn't hit meaningful volume until 2027 at earliest
• Samsung and SK Hynix have explicitly told investors they are NOT pursuing aggressive capacity expansion
The stock read-through:
• $MU most exposed to a price reversal - pure commodity DRAM play
• $NVDA and the hyperscalers actually want prices lower - cheaper memory = cheaper AI compute
If China floods the market, $MU gets hurt first and hardest
The cartel cracks eventually. Just probably not within a year.
Pay attention to CXMT yield rates and process node progress. That's the real timeline indicator.
CryptoGoos@cryptogoos
🚨 THE MEMORY CARTEL IS ABOUT TO FALL. Ex-Samsung chip boss says heavy Chinese investment in the memory market could crush the 414% DDR5 price spike within a year. Goldman calls it RAMageddon. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron control 70% of global DRAM and pushed prices from $6.84 to $27.20 in 3 months. Now China is gearing up to flood the market. Cheap memory = cheap AI compute = the cartel cracks.
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The market doesn't care about:
-Your entry price
-What you think is "fair value"
-Your feelings
The market cares about:
-Supply and demand
-Macro catalysts
-Whoever's got more capital
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@LiquidityJL Think it’s going to keep popping, or just a short-term swing?
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Evolve, adapt, persevere. Or die.
But not sure this is it $NFLX.
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Liquidity Journal retweetledi
the formula for becoming a millionaire before 35 in 2026:
1- high income skill (learn it, sell it)
2- Roth IRA maxed every year
3- index funds on autopilot
4- no car note over $300
5- roommates longer than your ego allows
6- one income stream becomes three
7- zero lifestyle inflation until you hit the number
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Retail investors today have more access to information than hedge funds did 20 years ago.
The problem isn’t access anymore.
It’s attention span.
Most people don’t lose money because they lack information.
They lose because they constantly changes strategies.
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@MarketMemory_1 it's very important to know the difference in these cases
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$IONQ Positioning vs Fundamentals
Priced for: Quantum monopoly.
Fundamentals: Tiny revenue, huge losses, shaky backlog.
Strength: $470M orders (60% commercial), ion trap edge.
Weakness: No profitability roadmap.
Tech target $109–$132. Know your framework
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The 11% contraction in information services since late 2022 is the real signal that AI displacement has moved from boardroom theory to a structural reality in the labor market
Damien 📈 Markets Simply@MarketsSimply
The April jobs report looks fine on the surface. Look one level deeper and you'll see the number that should make anyone in tech stop scrolling. The U.S. added 115,000 jobs in April, with unemployment unchanged at 4.3%. Healthcare, transport, and retail all grew. But information services lost 13,000 jobs, part of a trend that has seen the sector shed 342,000 jobs since November 2022, an 11% decline, which the BLS links in part to AI hitting the sector. Part time employment for economic reasons jumped by 445,000 to 4.9 million in April, people who want full-time work but can't find it. The overall number looks stable. But the information sector the one most exposed to what AI tools actually replace has been quietly shrinking for over three years. For someone learning AI tools right now, this is the data point that makes the case: the window to reskill before displacement hits your role is open, but the trend line is already moving. 342,000 information sector jobs gone since late 2022. AI just getting started.
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Wedbush just set the highest price target on the street. Here's why it's NOT crazy.
Why the bulls are loading up: → $400 new price target - up from $350, Wedbush's Daniel Ives leading the charge → 2.5 billion device ecosystem - the AI monetization surface nobody else has → WWDC June 8 - Siri 2.0, iOS 27, and AI Extensions system all dropping in 31 days → $111.2B Q1 revenue, up 17% YoY - beat estimates, record March quarter
Stock sitting at ~$288. That's 39% upside to the $400 target.
The risk: Siri has been delayed 3 times since 2024. WWDC is the last credible runway. Miss again and the AI monetization story collapses. Also - Morningstar's fair value sits at $123. Someone's very wrong.
Watch: WWDC keynote June 8. Either Apple delivers the Siri overhaul or the $400 case gets repriced fast.
Not holding. Not financial advice. Watching closely.
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Liquidity Journal retweetledi
Liquidity Journal retweetledi
Today we're launching Perplexity Computer for Professional Finance.
Finance teams can bring licensed data from providers like Morningstar, PitchBook, Daloopa, and Carbon Arc into Computer.
We’ve also added 35 dedicated finance workflows for the work analysts repeat every week.
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@sksk_sinker spot on, we’re seeing a fundamental shift where the correlation gap has closed because inflation is the primary driver rather than growth fears. If Treasuries are trading like risk assets, the diversification most investors think they have is essentially an illusion
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The headline yields are real. The bigger story is what they're saying about the bond market's role.
10Y at 4.45%. 30Y at 5.02%.
What's actually new: Treasuries are not behaving like a safe haven during this Middle East conflict. They're trading like a risk asset.
Why: oil-driven inflation makes bonds the wrong hedge. When the shock comes through energy prices instead of demand collapse, fixed-income payments lose purchasing power before equities lose earnings.
For portfolio implications, this is the part to sit with:
The "60/40" assumption (stocks down, bonds up) is broken in this specific scenario. If oil stays elevated and yields stay around 4.5%, hedging equity exposure with Treasuries does not work. Gold, energy stocks, and commodities are the substitute hedge - and they have been outperforming Treasuries since the conflict started.
Whether or not we hit 5% on the 10Y or 7% on mortgages depends on factors nobody can position around. What you can position around: knowing your hedge stopped working in March.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
The US bond market is in serious trouble. As new reports emerge of Iranian drone attacks on the UAE's energy infrastructure, yields are surging. The 10Y Note Yield is now up to 4.45%, nearing the same level that resulted in the ceasefire and the April 2025 "90-day tariff pause." Meanwhile, the market-implied BASE CASE now shows no interest rate cuts until December 2027. There is now a 42% chance of a rate HIKE by March 2027. It appears that $5/gallon gas prices and 7%+ mortgages are on the way. The bond market needs help.
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While the market obsesses over the model layer
$NBIS is quietly building a structural infrastructure moat
Targeting a $9B run rate by the end of the year with a $20B capex cycle isn't just a pivot, it’s a response to a world where AI demand is permanently running ahead of supply
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@ZaStocks Physics is the final boss atp. When $CRWV is racing to add 1GW of capacity and $NBIS is vertically integrating racks to dodge the "latency tax", we’ve officially entered the Industrial AI era. The trade isn't over it’s just moving from the software layer to the power grid
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Earnings yesterday made one thing very clear.
There isn’t enough compute available for everything that’s coming.
$CRWV $NBIS $ORCL $IREN and the rest of the neoclouds hold very important keys to the AI future.
Without more compute you don’t get the exponential leap in intelligence, the entire AI trade is bottlenecked by capacity.
Everyone wants more intelligence.
The companies that deliver the compute are becoming some of the most important gatekeepers in the world.
I don’t believe the compute trade is done.
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Nobody talks about the psychological cost of watching your portfolio drop 20% and doing nothing.
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@Mr_Derivatives the people who shorted the streak are having a very anticlimactic Friday
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$QQQ 13 day win streak comes to a stop today.
It was fun while it lasted.
With that said, today felt hardly bearish.
Barely red.
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