LlamaPicks

🦙 Jul 25 Picks ⚾ O/U Cubs F5 o3.5 1u · Guardians F5 u4.5 1u · Braves F5 u5.5 1u Which one are you fading and why? 👇 #FreePicks #LlamaPicks

⚾ Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles — 6:06 PM CT The market has completely whiffed on the F5 total for tonight's game. Our numbers show the first five innings going almost two full runs lower than the current line. Young, with his 3.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, should hold Elder’s offense in check early. Elder's 5.45 ERA and 1.38 WHIP are concerning, but our sim still pegs the F5 total at 3.65 runs against the 5.5 market line for the Under 5.5 (-148). The full-game side is a toss-up with fair lines at Atlanta 111 / Baltimore -111, and bullpens are too volatile to trust the full total. #MLB

⚾ Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates — 5:41 PM CT Market's seriously underpricing the F5 total tonight. My numbers show the first five innings flying over what they're offering. Imanaga (3.65 ERA) and Skenes (3.77 ERA) are good arms, but the expectation for a combined 3.5 runs through five is just too low. This play lives and dies purely on them, no bullpen involvement. Our F5 sim total comes in at 4.8 runs, a huge difference from the market's 3.5. That's a gift. Full game money line is a toss-up per the model, so we're staying away. Factor in an 8mph L-to-R wind, which can help. #MLB

⚾ Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays — 5:11 PM CT The market's F5 total here looks wildly inflated given the pitching matchup. My F5 sim total is almost a full run below the current line. We've got Bibee (3.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 6.2 K/9) against Martinez (2.83 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 4.4 K/9). Both have been shutting things down, especially Martinez. My F5 simulation comes in at 3.49 runs, which is a massive discrepancy compared to the market's 4.5. The full game side is basically a pick'em, but we don't care about bullpens here. #MLB

⚾ MLB Totals — Jul 25 Cubs@Pirates: Over 3.5 F5 1u Guardians@Rays: Under 4.5 F5 1u Braves@Orioles: Under 5.5 F5 1u #MLB #BaseballPicks #LlamaPicks

🦙 Jul 25 Picks ⚾ O/U Cubs F5 o3.5 1u · Guardians F5 u4.5 1u · Braves F5 u5.5 1u Which one are you fading and why? 👇 #FreePicks #LlamaPicks

⚾ What we're seeing today The ATL@BAL matchup with Elder vs Young is already catching serious attention, but our model is digging even deeper today. It's not just about the big names; we've got a couple of hidden gems across the 15-game slate. 15 games on the board, and we've zeroed in on 3 spots. That Elder/Young pitching disparity in Baltimore is stark, but the real value might be elsewhere. The algorithm likes one first-five over and two unders overall. Confirmed card drops ~3 hrs before first pitch 👇 #MLB #BaseballPicks

📊 Results — Jul 24 ⚾ 0-1: White Sox❌ 0-1 · -1.0u

🦙 Jul 24 Picks ⚾ ML White Sox -134 1u Which of these hits first? 👇 #FreePicks #LlamaPicks

⚾ Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants — 9:16 PM CT This Angels/Giants game is an interesting one for the model, even though we aren't officially betting it. The 20mph wind blowing straight out to center field jumps out immediately with Rodriguez on the mound. Rodriguez's 8.18 ERA/1.75 WHIP are brutal, and the 20mph wind out isn't helping. Webb's been solid (3.90 ERA/1.02 WHIP), but the model projects a high 9.8 total. The wind and Rodriguez's struggles are driving that Over projection. Model also likes the home side, projecting Giants at -162. Lean: Over and Giants side. #MLB

⚾ Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox — 6:41 PM CT The CWS ML at -134 is one of the market's biggest misprices today. Our full game sim has them favored much heavier than that. Houston is trotting out Arrighetti, who carries a 5.72 ERA and 1.39 WHIP into this one. Martin for Chicago is the vastly more dependable starter at home, with a 4.05 ERA. We make the White Sox fair value at -163, seeing almost thirty cents of premium over the current line. The 9 mph wind blowing in from center field should only help Martin keep balls in the park. This is a play worth hitting hard. #MLB

The numbers scream value on the home team tonight. Taking Chicago White Sox ML (-134) for 1u. This price is too good to pass up for the pitching advantage. #MLB

Martin (4.05 ERA) has a clear edge over Arrighetti (5.72 ERA), yet the market is soft on the Sox ML. Our F5 sim total of 4.2 runs is lower than the 4.5 market, further supported by 9 mph wind blowing in from center.

⚾ Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox — 6:41 PM CT Serious value on the home favorite tonight. The market is completely underpricing the pitching advantage and current form. 🧵

⚾ MLB Picks — Jul 24 Chicago White Sox ML (-134) 1u #MLB #BaseballPicks #LlamaPicks

⚾ What we're seeing today Today's board is deep, but one clear spot is dominating the early reads. Our model found a massive mismatch that's impossible to ignore. That HOU/CWS game with Arrighetti (5.72 ERA) against Martin (4.05 ERA) is precisely what we mean. The pitching disparity is glaring, and it's driving the entire play. We're only circling one spot on the 15-game slate today because this one carries so much conviction. Everything else feels like noise. Confirmed card drops ~3 hrs before first pitch 👇 #MLB #BaseballPicks

📊 Results — Jul 23 ⚾ 1-1: Rays❌ u8.5✅ 1-1 · -0.1u

🦙 Jul 23 Picks ⚾ O/U Royals u8.5 1u ML Rays -104 1u Which one do you fade? 👇 #FreePicks #LlamaPicks

⚾ Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers — 5:41 PM CT This total is wildly mispriced. The market has completely missed on two starters who are dealing, implying nearly 2.5 more runs than our models. Dobnak owns a 1.93 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP, while Melton is dealing at 1.62 ERA and a sharp 0.88 WHIP. The market is ignoring their recent form. Our full-game simulation pegs this at 6.0 runs, a huge gap from the 8.5 total. Even with average bullpens, this number is too high. We're passing the full-game side as the Tigers' fair ML of -185 offers no real value. #MLB

⚾ Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals — 4:16 PM CT ARI/STL tonight isn't on the card for an official bet, but the model has a strong read on the total. We're seeing a low projected score despite two starters who keep the ball in play. Pfaadt's 3.74 ERA and McGreevy's 2.84 ERA both look good, but neither posts high strikeout numbers (6.4 K/9 and 6.0 K/9 respectively), meaning more balls in play. Our model projects 7.6 total runs for the full game. With a 6 mph wind blowing in from center field, conditions will suppress offense further. #MLB

⚾ Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays — 2:08 PM CT The market's clearly asleep on this Rays number. Our model sees a massive pricing error on the full-game ML for Tampa Bay. Seymour's 4.97 ERA masks a sharp 11.2 K/9 and solid 1.13 WHIP, indicating he's pitching better than his surface stats suggest. Bieber is heading the other direction, with a concerning 5.23 ERA and an unsustainable 1.66 WHIP that good lineups exploit. Our full-game simulation pegs Tampa Bay at -126, which makes the current -104 line a significant value. #MLB

Taking the Tampa Bay Rays ML at -104 for 1u. This is a clear price discrepancy on a team that's undervalued against a struggling ace. #MLB

Seymour (4.97 ERA) isn't elite, but Bieber's (5.23 ERA) been worse, with a higher WHIP. Our F5 fair total is just 4.4 runs, so don't expect a slugfest, and wind is calm.

⚾ Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays — 2:08 PM CT Bieber’s numbers are ugly, but the market's still giving him too much credit in a tough spot. Value on the road team today 🧵