LockManJay

209 posts

LockManJay

LockManJay

@LockManJay

NBA Picks To Help You Succeed.

Katılım Aralık 2023
1 Takip Edilen29 Takipçiler
LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
Nolan McLean Over 6.5 Strikeouts❌(6) Had 6 strikeouts in three innings🤦‍♂️
LockManJay@LockManJay

MLB Prop Monday May 25th Noah McLean Over 6.5 Strikeouts Nolan McLean Over 6.5 Strikeouts stands out as one of the better strikeout spots on the slate. He’s been missing bats at a high rate lately, and this matchup against Cincinnati lines up well for another strong K performance He’s averaging 6.9 strikeouts per start this season and has cleared this number in 6 of his last 10 starts, including games of 8, 8, 8, 10, and 7 Ks. The strikeout upside has been consistent lately too, posting 11.0 K/9 over his last seven starts while carrying a 29.5% strikeout rate overall. The matchup against Cincinnati sets up well for swing and miss production. The Reds rank 5th in strikeout rate versus right handed pitching at 23.5%, and several hitters in this lineup profile extremely vulnerable against McLean’s pitch mix. Will Benson owns a massive 53.1% whiff rate against breaking balls, TJ Friedl has a 52.9% whiff rate versus offspeed pitches, Elly De La Cruz carries a 27.4% K rate against righties with a 45.2% offspeed whiff rate, and Stuart Fairchild shows a 41.7% offspeed whiff rate with elevated chase numbers. Even depth bats like Stephenson, McLain, and Suarez all show clear swing and miss indicators. What makes this matchup especially appealing is how McLean’s arsenal lines up directly with those weaknesses. His breaking and offspeed pitches both generate 34%+ whiff rates, and he’s punching out right handed hitters at a 35.7% clip. Cincinnati’s lineup has multiple hitters that struggle against upper-zone velocity and secondary stuff away, which plays directly into McLean’s strengths as a putaway pitcher. If he gets normal workload volume, the strikeout opportunities should be there all afternoon. 3/3 yesterday Follow for daily picks #mlbprops #mlbets #mlbprops #sportsbetting #gamblingx

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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
MLB Prop Monday May 25th Noah McLean Over 6.5 Strikeouts Nolan McLean Over 6.5 Strikeouts stands out as one of the better strikeout spots on the slate. He’s been missing bats at a high rate lately, and this matchup against Cincinnati lines up well for another strong K performance He’s averaging 6.9 strikeouts per start this season and has cleared this number in 6 of his last 10 starts, including games of 8, 8, 8, 10, and 7 Ks. The strikeout upside has been consistent lately too, posting 11.0 K/9 over his last seven starts while carrying a 29.5% strikeout rate overall. The matchup against Cincinnati sets up well for swing and miss production. The Reds rank 5th in strikeout rate versus right handed pitching at 23.5%, and several hitters in this lineup profile extremely vulnerable against McLean’s pitch mix. Will Benson owns a massive 53.1% whiff rate against breaking balls, TJ Friedl has a 52.9% whiff rate versus offspeed pitches, Elly De La Cruz carries a 27.4% K rate against righties with a 45.2% offspeed whiff rate, and Stuart Fairchild shows a 41.7% offspeed whiff rate with elevated chase numbers. Even depth bats like Stephenson, McLain, and Suarez all show clear swing and miss indicators. What makes this matchup especially appealing is how McLean’s arsenal lines up directly with those weaknesses. His breaking and offspeed pitches both generate 34%+ whiff rates, and he’s punching out right handed hitters at a 35.7% clip. Cincinnati’s lineup has multiple hitters that struggle against upper-zone velocity and secondary stuff away, which plays directly into McLean’s strengths as a putaway pitcher. If he gets normal workload volume, the strikeout opportunities should be there all afternoon. 3/3 yesterday Follow for daily picks #mlbprops #mlbets #mlbprops #sportsbetting #gamblingx
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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
Keldon Johnson Under 3.5 Rebounds✅ Follow for daily picks
LockManJay@LockManJay

NBA Prop Sunday May 24th Keldon Johnson Under 3.5 Rebounds Keldon Johnson has struggled badly on the glass in this current Spurs rotation, and the numbers with both De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper active are extremely concerning for this rebound line. Keldon is averaging just 1.8 rebounds per game over his last 5 playoff games with Fox and Harper active while going under 3.5 rebounds in all 5 games. Recent results: 2 rebounds 3 rebounds 2 rebounds 0 rebounds 2 rebounds The rebound opportunity numbers are just as weak. In those same playoff games with Fox and Harper active, Keldon is averaging only 4 rebound chances per game, which is barely above the line itself and leaves almost no margin for error. The previous matchup against OKC followed the exact same pattern. Keldon finished with only 2 rebounds despite seeing enough floor time to have a realistic chance at clearing the number if the role or opportunity was there. OKC has also been solid limiting production from opposing shooting guards on the glass. Matchup data shows opposing SGs have only hit this rebound line 38% of the time over the Thunder’s last 10 games, while OKC ranks 28th against SG rebounds in this matchup profile. Even Keldon’s broader playoff sample supports the under. With Fox and Harper active this postseason: L5 hit rate: 0% H2H hit rate vs OKC: 0% L10 hit rate: 30% Season playoff hit rate: 42% The matchup history and recent playoff form both point in the same direction. Keldon has stayed under this line in every recent playoff game with Fox and Harper active, and nothing in the underlying rebound numbers suggests positive regression is coming. Unless his role or minutes change significantly, the current volume simply hasn’t been there to support 4+ rebounds consistently. #nbaprop #nbabet #nbapick #sportsbetting #gamblingX

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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
Wemby Over 24.5 Points✅ Sweat free 3/3 on the day Follow for daily picks
LockManJay@LockManJay

NBA Prop Sunday May 24th Wemby Over 24.5 Points Victor Wembanyama has already shown this matchup isn’t too big for him offensively. In this series against OKC, he’s averaging 29.3 points per game on 18.7 field goal attempts, clearing this 24.5 line in 2 of the 3 meetings while dropping outings of 41 and 26 points. Even in the one miss, he still put up 21 points, so the volume and usage have remained consistent throughout the series. That’s the biggest takeaway here - the offense is clearly running through him regardless of matchup difficulty. The shot volume is what makes this over so appealing. Nearly 19 field goal attempts per game against the Thunder is elite usage, especially for a player who also generates offense at the free throw line and in transition. Wemby averages 5.8 points from free throws alone and another 5.1 points in transition, which gives him easy scoring opportunities before half court defense can even get set. Add in his ability to score from spot up situations, cuts, post ups, and isolation possessions, and it becomes extremely difficult to scheme him out for four quarters. OKC’s defense ranks near the top of the league against centers, but Wemby’s scoring profile is unique because he attacks from every level of the floor. He’s shown positive efficiency from three point range and around the rim in this matchup while continuing to create mismatches with his size and mobility. More importantly, opposing centers have still produced against OKC recently, and Wembanyama already proved he can punish this exact defense At the end of the day, this prop comes down to opportunity and offensive role. A player averaging nearly 30 points per game in the series on massive shot volume only needs an average scoring night to clear 24.5. With San Antonio continuing to lean on him as the clear offensive centerpiece, the upside for another 25+ performance is very real. #nbaprop #nbabet #nbapick #sportsbetting #gamblingX

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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
Mackenzie Gore Over 5.5 Strikeouts✅ Follow for daily picks 2/2 so far today
LockManJay@LockManJay

MLB Prop Sunday May 24th Mackenzie Gore Over 5.5 Strikeouts This matchup lines up extremely well for Gore from a strikeout perspective. The Angels are striking out 23.9% against left handed pitching, and several hitters in this projected lineup have clear swing and miss profiles that fit Gore’s arsenal perfectly. Gore owns a 29.1% strikeout rate against right handed hitters, which is important because most of this lineup swings right handed. The individual matchup data supports it too: • Zach Neto carries a 46.2% whiff rate against breaking balls • Jo Adell has a 38.8% chase rate • Jorge Soler owns a 35.5% chase contact profile • Oswald Peraza has a 36.4% whiff rate vs breaking balls • Logan O’Hoppe carries a 32.3% chase rate • Jose Siri has a 50% whiff rate against fastballs, while Gore throws his fastball nearly 60% of the time That’s a lot of hitters vulnerable to either chase or swing and miss stuff, and Gore checks both boxes. His fastball/changeup combination has generated strong whiff numbers all season, and the matchup data specifically points toward his pitch mix creating problems for this lineup. The recent workload also supports the over. Gore has gone at least 5 innings in 8 of his last 9 starts and has worked 5.1+ innings in 6 of them. Opportunity matters for strikeout props, and Gore has consistently been staying on the mound long enough to get there. He’s also cleared this line with 7, 9, 9, and 7 strikeouts in four of his last ten starts, while multiple recent misses landed directly on 5 Ks, meaning he’s been hovering around this number consistently. The biggest thing here is the matchup quality. The Angels lineup has several hitters with aggressive chase tendencies and high whiff rates, which fits exactly what Gore attacks well. If he gets his normal workload, the path to 6+ strikeouts is definitely there. #mlbprop #mlbbet #mlbpick #sportsbetting #gamblingX

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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
NBA Full Betting Card Sunday May 24th Wemby Over 24.5 Points Keldon Johnson Under 3.5 Rebounds
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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
NBA Prop Sunday May 24th Wemby Over 24.5 Points Victor Wembanyama has already shown this matchup isn’t too big for him offensively. In this series against OKC, he’s averaging 29.3 points per game on 18.7 field goal attempts, clearing this 24.5 line in 2 of the 3 meetings while dropping outings of 41 and 26 points. Even in the one miss, he still put up 21 points, so the volume and usage have remained consistent throughout the series. That’s the biggest takeaway here - the offense is clearly running through him regardless of matchup difficulty. The shot volume is what makes this over so appealing. Nearly 19 field goal attempts per game against the Thunder is elite usage, especially for a player who also generates offense at the free throw line and in transition. Wemby averages 5.8 points from free throws alone and another 5.1 points in transition, which gives him easy scoring opportunities before half court defense can even get set. Add in his ability to score from spot up situations, cuts, post ups, and isolation possessions, and it becomes extremely difficult to scheme him out for four quarters. OKC’s defense ranks near the top of the league against centers, but Wemby’s scoring profile is unique because he attacks from every level of the floor. He’s shown positive efficiency from three point range and around the rim in this matchup while continuing to create mismatches with his size and mobility. More importantly, opposing centers have still produced against OKC recently, and Wembanyama already proved he can punish this exact defense At the end of the day, this prop comes down to opportunity and offensive role. A player averaging nearly 30 points per game in the series on massive shot volume only needs an average scoring night to clear 24.5. With San Antonio continuing to lean on him as the clear offensive centerpiece, the upside for another 25+ performance is very real. #nbaprop #nbabet #nbapick #sportsbetting #gamblingX
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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
MLB Prop Sunday May 24th Mackenzie Gore Over 5.5 Strikeouts This matchup lines up extremely well for Gore from a strikeout perspective. The Angels are striking out 23.9% against left handed pitching, and several hitters in this projected lineup have clear swing and miss profiles that fit Gore’s arsenal perfectly. Gore owns a 29.1% strikeout rate against right handed hitters, which is important because most of this lineup swings right handed. The individual matchup data supports it too: • Zach Neto carries a 46.2% whiff rate against breaking balls • Jo Adell has a 38.8% chase rate • Jorge Soler owns a 35.5% chase contact profile • Oswald Peraza has a 36.4% whiff rate vs breaking balls • Logan O’Hoppe carries a 32.3% chase rate • Jose Siri has a 50% whiff rate against fastballs, while Gore throws his fastball nearly 60% of the time That’s a lot of hitters vulnerable to either chase or swing and miss stuff, and Gore checks both boxes. His fastball/changeup combination has generated strong whiff numbers all season, and the matchup data specifically points toward his pitch mix creating problems for this lineup. The recent workload also supports the over. Gore has gone at least 5 innings in 8 of his last 9 starts and has worked 5.1+ innings in 6 of them. Opportunity matters for strikeout props, and Gore has consistently been staying on the mound long enough to get there. He’s also cleared this line with 7, 9, 9, and 7 strikeouts in four of his last ten starts, while multiple recent misses landed directly on 5 Ks, meaning he’s been hovering around this number consistently. The biggest thing here is the matchup quality. The Angels lineup has several hitters with aggressive chase tendencies and high whiff rates, which fits exactly what Gore attacks well. If he gets his normal workload, the path to 6+ strikeouts is definitely there. #mlbprop #mlbbet #mlbpick #sportsbetting #gamblingX
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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
NBA Prop Sunday May 24th Keldon Johnson Under 3.5 Rebounds Keldon Johnson has struggled badly on the glass in this current Spurs rotation, and the numbers with both De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper active are extremely concerning for this rebound line. Keldon is averaging just 1.8 rebounds per game over his last 5 playoff games with Fox and Harper active while going under 3.5 rebounds in all 5 games. Recent results: 2 rebounds 3 rebounds 2 rebounds 0 rebounds 2 rebounds The rebound opportunity numbers are just as weak. In those same playoff games with Fox and Harper active, Keldon is averaging only 4 rebound chances per game, which is barely above the line itself and leaves almost no margin for error. The previous matchup against OKC followed the exact same pattern. Keldon finished with only 2 rebounds despite seeing enough floor time to have a realistic chance at clearing the number if the role or opportunity was there. OKC has also been solid limiting production from opposing shooting guards on the glass. Matchup data shows opposing SGs have only hit this rebound line 38% of the time over the Thunder’s last 10 games, while OKC ranks 28th against SG rebounds in this matchup profile. Even Keldon’s broader playoff sample supports the under. With Fox and Harper active this postseason: L5 hit rate: 0% H2H hit rate vs OKC: 0% L10 hit rate: 30% Season playoff hit rate: 42% The matchup history and recent playoff form both point in the same direction. Keldon has stayed under this line in every recent playoff game with Fox and Harper active, and nothing in the underlying rebound numbers suggests positive regression is coming. Unless his role or minutes change significantly, the current volume simply hasn’t been there to support 4+ rebounds consistently. #nbaprop #nbabet #nbapick #sportsbetting #gamblingX
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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
Full NBA Prop Betting Card Friday May 22nd
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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
NBA Prop Friday May 22nd Wemby Over 13.5 Rebounds Wemby has completely controlled the glass in this matchup so far, putting up 24 and 17 rebounds in the first two meetings against OKC. And the important part is that the production wasn’t only overtime inflated. In the double OT game, Wemby already had 17 rebounds through regulation before adding 7 more across the overtime periods. He was active on the boards from the start in game two: 5 rebounds in the 1st quarter 5 rebounds in the 2nd quarter 3 rebounds in the 3rd quarter 4 rebounds in the 4th quarter The recent form supports it too. Wemby has cleared this line in 7 of his last 10 playoff games and continues to dominate rebound volume whenever he’s playing heavy minutes. And unlike a lot of high rebound lines, Wemby doesn’t rely heavily on offensive boards to clear this number. Most of his production comes naturally within the flow of the game because of his length, positioning, and overall defensive role. The matchup against OKC has clearly been favorable for his rebounding numbers, and if this game stays competitive again, the volume should continue to be there. #nbaprop #nbabet #nbapick #sportsbetting #gamblingx
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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
NBA Prop Friday May 22nd Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 4.5 Rebounds Shai’s rebound line looks inflated right now. He’s averaging just 3.1 rebounds during this playoff stretch and has stayed under 4.5 in 9 of his last 10 playoff games. Against San Antonio specifically, he finished with 3 and 4 rebounds in the two meetings despite playing heavy minutes. What really stands out is the rebound opportunity data. He’s averaging only 6.6 rebound chances per game, which usually isn’t enough volume to consistently clear a 5 rebound line. Even in the double OT matchup against the Spurs, he still couldn’t get over this number. That’s a huge sign because overtime is usually what kills rebound unders. The matchup history and recent playoff trends both point in the same direction here. Shai’s role in this offense is built around scoring and creating, not crashing the glass, and with this line sitting at 4.5 it feels like the number is asking for more rebounds than his current role and averages are consistently producing #nbaprop #nbapick #nbabet #sportsbetting #gamblingX
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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
NBA Full Betting Card Tuesday May 19th Evan Mobley Under 8.5 Rebounds Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 3pt Made
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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
NBA Prop Tuesday May 19th Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 3pt Made This feels like a really strong spot for Brunson from deep, especially getting plus money on a line he’s been clearing consistently lately. The volume has been excellent, which is usually the biggest thing you want when betting three point props. Brunson is averaging 2.7 made threes per game recently and has cleared this number in 7 of his last 10 overall while hitting at a 60% clip over his last five. The playoff workload has also been massive. He’s regularly playing in the 35-41 minute range in competitive games, including multiple 40+ minute performances this postseason. For a high usage guard like Brunson, that kind of floor time naturally creates elite shot volume opportunities. The matchup also lines up well for perimeter production. Cleveland ranks 21st against opposing PG threes overall, and Brunson’s offensive role fits perfectly for this type of prop. He operates heavily as a pick and roll ball handler, where he averages 8.4 points per game, and Cleveland ranks 4th defending that action. Even with the defensive pressure, Brunson has still consistently gotten up strong three point volume in this matchup. The recent meetings against Cleveland this season are still encouraging from a volume perspective. Brunson attempted: 9 threes 12 threes 7 threes He also knocked down 3+ threes in two of those three meetings, including a 6 three pointer performance. That’s an average of over 9 three point attempts per game against Cleveland this season, which is elite volume for a line set at only 2.5. At the end of the day, this number feels a little too low considering the combination of playoff minutes, recent volume, and matchup history. If Brunson is taking anywhere near 7-9 threes again tonight, 3 makes is very attainable at plus money. #nbaprop #nbabet #nbapick #sportsbetting #gamblingX
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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
NBA Prop Tuesday May 19th Evan Mobley Under 8.5 Rebounds Everything about this matchup points toward a difficult rebounding environment for Mobley. The Knicks have been one of the best teams in basketball at limiting production from opposing power forwards on the glass, ranking 3rd overall against PF rebounds and 2nd at home. They consistently finish possessions, limit second chance opportunities, and force opposing bigs into lower rebounding volume games. Mobley’s recent form also supports the under. He’s cleared 9+ rebounds in just 1 of his last 5 games, hitting this line only 20% of the time over that span. Even across his last 10 and last 20 games, the over rates sit at only 40%. The matchup history against New York has been even more concerning in games KAT is active. Mobley is averaging just 7.3 rebounds in those meetings and has stayed under this line in 5 of the last 6 games. His rebound opportunity numbers are also modest at just 12.3 rebound chances per game in the matchup, which is not ideal for a player needing 9 boards against an elite rebounding team. The Knicks have consistently shut down opposing forwards on the glass recently: Opposing PFs are hitting rebound lines at only a 15% rate over New York’s last 10 games Against elite rebounding teams like New York, Mobley’s path to clearing this number becomes much thinner because the Knicks rarely allow easy second chance opportunities or inflated rebound totals to opposing frontcourt players. With the matchup history, recent playoff trends, and New York’s defensive profile all lining up in the same direction, this feels like a spot where Mobley finishes just short of the number rather than comfortably clearing it #nbaprop #nbapicks #nbabets #sportsbetting #gamblingX
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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
MLB Full Betting Card Tuesday May 19th Nolan McLean Under 5.5 Hits Allowed Griffin Canning Under 4.5 Strikeouts
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LockManJay
LockManJay@LockManJay·
MLB Prop Tuesday May 19th Nolan McLean Under 5.5 Hits Allowed Nolan McLean is averaging just 3.9 hits allowed per start this season and has stayed under this number in 7 of his 9 outings. What stands out even more is that he’s doing it while working deep into games. McLean has thrown 90+ pitches in 7 different starts, reached at least 5 innings every time out, and still continues to limit contact at a high level. The matchup lines up well too. Washington ranks just 21st in batting average against right handed pitching and is hitting only .233 in the split. Meanwhile, McLean has held opposing hitters to a .189 batting average this season, which is elite. Even in games where he’s faced heavy volume (25 to 28 batters) he’s still consistently landed under this line. His game log outside of the two overs is extremely clean: 4, 1, 3, 2, 5, 5, and 3 hits allowed. The arsenal explains a lot of the success. McLean attacks with a mid 90s fastball and pairs it with a high whiff sweeper and curveball combination that’s consistently finishing at bats. The stuff has clearly translated because hitters haven’t been able to string together sustained contact against him all season. At a 5.5 line, the margin is solid too. He isn’t barely sneaking under he’s averaging nearly two full hits below the number. When you combine the workload, the opponent split, the .189 batting average allowed, and a 7 for 9 under record, this sets up as one of the stronger under spots on today’s slate. #mlb #mlbprop #mlbpick #mlbbet #mlbtoday #sportsbetting #gamblingX
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