Longview Research

$CEPL. If you are starting your research on Capstone Energy+, starts her. This is Part One, there is also a Part Two for the model and scenarios, all still very relevant and current for newer readers. NFA.

I believe I came across some info that said their key supplier for their microturbine was only at 20% utilization of factory output. This is why my assumption in the base case is ~500MW of capacity since that would imply near 100% utilization of their key supplier for their MTs. See Part Two of my write ups, found below: x.com/Longviewres/st…

Has anyone done the work to understand $CEPL supplier lead time for their turbine blades, presumably sourced from Howmet and Precision Cast Parts? I haven't seen this specifically addressed.

@Browpeak Hope you saw Part 2 of the write ups I did, some big math on 500MW of shipments per year, means the stock is worth $150 per share

$CEPL Might post some numbers when I get time. But the upside here on any kind of DC traction is huge. I want to mention that Capstone isn’t competing against $BE or $GEV They have a unique opportunity to capture a slice of the fast growing edge/modular DC market. think 1-20MW in size They’re already looking at 800vdc and have said they’re “actively collaborating with several well-known data center infrastructure companies to pilot this technology in their labs and pilot sites.” Other recent quotes “So as I was sharing earlier around the data centers, we are making meaningful progress. And what I would tell you is that our pipeline has doubled in size.” They’re also do test runs of a 100MW scenario and were asked if they could handle in “This is something we've been working hard on. As a matter of fact, we brought in our top-tier suppliers to do a 100 megawatt role play.” “But yes, we believe strongly that we can handle the demand once the order is secured.”

The $CEPL report I put out (formerly $CGEH) is a long shelf life report, please give it a read if doing research on Capstone Energy+. There are also two parts.

@Browpeak thanks for the share!

$CEPL For anyone interested @Longviewres has a brilliant write up and overview of Capstone Energy+ Don’t need to educate people of how critical power and energy generation has become. It’s here to stay. You’re watching a company strategically rebrand itself to capture this trend. This isn’t some start up or fancy tech. It’s a rebranded, recapitalised profitable business with over 10,000 units deployed world wide. It’s a remarkable turnaround from chapter 11 to now 7 consecutive quarters of profitability all within 3 years. As always do your own research. Go read the last few transcripts, earnings releases, 10K.

The Bloom $BE short reports are pricing 2026–30 fuel cells on cell specs Bloom first published between 2010 and 2015 — implicitly assuming no technical progress since. I machine-read Bloom's entire public record: all 681 patents in full text, every SEC filing and exhibit, all 30 earnings calls. The shorts' scandium math (~37–60 tonnes per GW; Hunterbrook 37, Crossroads 60) is built on 25W per cell — a figure from Bloom's 2010 launch — and 100–300µm electrolytes from 2014–15 patents. The 2021–22 tech decks the shorts cite don't update those numbers; they restate them. Bloom's own filings since then march one direction — thinner and more powerful. Factor the documented trail in (Tons of Scandium per GW): ~37–60 t/GW — the shorts' assumption (2010–15 specs, frozen) ~15–33 t/GW — implied by Bloom's 2021–2025 filings ~6–15 t/GW — the rib-cell architecture patented 2023–24 At 5 GW/yr — the capacity Bloom markets and the Street models — that's the difference between needing ~185–300 tonnes of scandium a year (shorts' math), ~75–165 (current-filings case), or ~30–75 (patented next-gen). For scale: the entire world produced ~80 tonnes in 2025. (Scope: DEMAND side only. World supply and origin are not considered here.) The evidence trail, from Bloom's own documents: Thickness, in Bloom's own filings: 150–300µm exemplified (2014) → "a thin 115µm electrolyte" (2015) → "100 microns or less… 50 to 100 microns" (2021–2025) → rib-supported 30–70µm, patented 2023–24 (US2024/0379983). Half to a tenth of the old material. Power: Bloom publicly claimed a "+50% increase in power density" for next-gen cells (2020). Run the physics: ~37W/cell at unchanged efficiency — that alone cuts scandium per GW by a third. And even if you freeze wattage at the 2010 number forever, the documented thinning alone cuts scandium per GW by half to two-thirds. Chemistry is pinned: 9–11 mol% scandia in every filing through 2026. No materials breakthrough assumed, none needed — thickness × electrode gains do all the work. The honest part: ALL of this is inference — Nobody outside Bloom knows where production sits today.

I can't think of a bigger and faster growing market than the data center market. And, with the exception of chips, power is experiencing the greatest demand, this is not a secret of course. $BE is the leader here and for good reason, but don't miss out on $CEPL, this is a company which has sold over 10K units and has a great offering for data centers, and highly efficient when using the entire process including cooling. But will they land a DC contract? Of course this is anyone's guess, certainly the stock would take-off on this. All we have to go on is the CEO's own words "In terms of the data center pipeline, it's magnitudes, magnitudes above what the C&I pipeline is. And that's to be expected because these deals are so much bigger." Stock is cheap, profitable, no real debt and thin, so any deal and the stock is gone. This could just be a trade, but if they can really impact the DC space with a focus on 30-40% of the market which needs cooling, this could be an incredible growth story. Long $CEPL

@mackey_dav38900 How would you know this exactly?

$CEPL Analyst coverage right on schedule... BWS buy rating $20 price target... Refinance coming... all is good

Best BTM cheat sheet I've seen (h/t @mosessutton89) only missing installed cost estimate + lead time

Google is the confirmed owner behind Project Tembo (formerly Project Jade), Wyoming's largest data center build: 2.7GW scalable to 10GW, 716 acres in Cheyenne's Switchgrass Industrial Park, targeting 2031 completion. Ownership surfaced through a June 30 county filing, not a company announcement, and the prior "bring-your-own-power" framing has softened into a grid-tied structure. >Capacity/site: 2.7GW initial, up to 10GW scale-out; four data center halls plus office hub; 716 acres, with a further 32.83-acre office support parcel now in permitting (hearing Aug 13, comment window through July 31). >Power sourcing: Tallgrass Energy blending Black Hills Energy grid capacity, fuel cells, and its own generation at a dedicated substation. Not fully off-grid despite earlier positioning. >Contractor swap: Crusoe was replaced by Google subsidiary Jupiter Star Holdings LLC as builder/operator last month. Construction continued through the swap, no pause. >Regional density: Cheyenne now hosts 10 existing data centers, 5 under construction, 9 in advanced discussions, plus Microsoft (3,500-acre expansion tract, pending annexation) and Meta ($800mn, 960 acres, targeting 2027, currently facing wastewater contamination scrutiny).

Interesting

We will need all power sources, especially BTM which is here and now. Bullish $CEPL, $BE, others

$BE $FCEL You’re not bullish enough

In $BE read through both short reports and FT article. First report was short hit job & garbage. Second short report, Crossroads Capital, more structured and detailed on supply chain issues in China regarding scarcity of critical material Scandium to produce fuel cells. Most folks who know $BE knew about risk regarding Scandium and the supply chain. $BE sources with Sumitomo in Philippines and Rio Tinto, in Canada and not ‘Dependent’ upon China. At same time, supply chain is a risk not fake. Another concern is $BE margins particularly after $GEV turbine backlog is reduced, the reason is customers have been choosing $BE over $GEV due to availability. Competition for data center energy solutions is real and heated, so $BE margins could be threatened. Lastly, valuation of $BE. Valuation is priced to perfection and with sustainable pricing power & growth, likely too optimistic. Not an expert on Scandium, Competition with $GEV & Siemens is real and doesn’t take a genius to see valuation is very high. As for my positioning. I was long $BE long stock and then sold in late May plus was short puts at lower strikes every week. One of the difficulties of trading is realizing when a story stock is near the end of a chapter or act. I scaled back last week on short $BE puts. Now I am flat $BE but still positioned yet only 1/4 size as before with short $BE puts $150 & below as short reports did their damage last week. Anyways, long post but I also post about trading $BE on regular basis. $BE has been excellent alpha in 2026 and will learn in short order if trade is over.

@1991Wolfpack @OptionsMike You should read about $CEPL, this whole $BE and $GEV situations makes them next beneficiary.

$BE Big spot here at 230. Break and next level is 200 and there is big gap there. Short reports out on it lately. Someone trying to force this one down schrts.co/dXFRnnse

The behind-the-meter (BTM) market is expected to grow from $108B to $520B. Everybody knows $BE, but only a handful are familiar with $CEPL. $CEPL definitely deserves to be on your radar!

@SammyKoppelman See the other comment. Your lack of knowledge is shocking for the claims you have made.

@Longviewres Hey buddy! You’ve done a lot of tweeting at me. Want to send through some examples of other companies with this big of a gap between RPO and backlog? The newsroom included a pretty big list of comps in the chart above.

What's the good explanation for $BE including optional servicing, future (?) tax credits, and other non-binding revenue in backlog? Do people have any examples of other companies that do anything similar? The newsroom tried to find a representative peer group, below.

@FundyAnalysis @SammyKoppelman Exactly.

@SammyKoppelman @Longviewres Bro do you have an inkling of knowledge of project finance? If you did you wouldn’t include neoclouds and SaaS comps in your chart… also GEV’s backlog and RPO are essentially the same..

@SammyKoppelman You used this in your report as a bear thesis point and now you are asking us about some other examples? Thanks for the amateur hour pitch.

@SammyKoppelman Literally everyone does this… everyone.